Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 1024

May 16, 200334 counties in Arkansas; 9 counties in Oklahoma; 10 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 16, 2003, 12:09 PM CDT for 34 counties in Arkansas; 9 counties in Oklahoma; 10 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 16, 2003, 12:09 PM CDT (17:09 UTC)
Expired: May 16, 2003, 2:45 PM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 53 counties

Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Conway County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Little River County, AR, Logan County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Miller County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Union County, AR, White County, AR, Yell County, AR, Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Delta County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Morris County, TX, Red River County, TX, Titus County, TX

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 154 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 12:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 299 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -621 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1397 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 223 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 439 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

018 
ACUS11 KWNS 161710
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161709 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-161945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK INTO SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161709Z - 161945Z

THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SERN OK INTO MUCH OF WRN
AR. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES AS STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOP
EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL OK THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL BECOME STRONGLY
UNSTABLE IN THE WAKE OF CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS
WRN AND NWRN AR. WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THIS AREA WILL
AID RENEWED STORM INITIATION AND RESULT IN STRONG LOW LEVEL SRH
SUPPORTIVE OF MESOCYCLONES. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING
SUGGEST A THREAT FOR LONG TRACK...POTENTIALLY TORNADIC...SUPERCELLS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 05/16/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

33189184 32819533 34159643 35329584 35299150

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 16, 4:04 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Crawford, Franklin and 17 more	56 min
May 16, 4:25 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Howard, Johnson and 10 more	5 hr
May 16, 5:47 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Howard, Johnson and 10 more	58 min
May 16, 6:35 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Cleburne and 36 more	25 min
May 16, 6:50 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Arkansas, Baxter, Boone, Cleburne, Cleveland, Conway and 27 more	4 hr
May 16, 7:42 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Baxter, Boone, Cleburne, Cleveland, Conway and 26 more	63 min
May 16, 9:16 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Howard, Little River, Polk, Sevier	119 min
May 16, 9:39 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Crittenden, Mississippi	96 min
May 16, 12:45 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland, Columbia and 33 more	5 hr
May 16, 2:12 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Baxter, Boone, Clark, Clay, Cleburne and 44 more	93 min
May 16, 2:50 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Arkansas, Ashley, Chicot, Clay, Craighead, Crittenden and 16 more	7 hr
May 16, 3:18 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clark, Garland, Hempstead, Hot Spring, Howard, Little River and 11 more	117 min
May 16, 3:34 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Fulton, Izard and 6 more	116 min
May 16, 3:55 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Fulton, Independence and 8 more	6 hr
May 16, 5:06 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland, Columbia and 33 more	54 min
May 16, 5:45 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Arkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland and 40 more	6 hr
May 16, 5:59 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Ashley, Chicot, Clay, Craighead, Crittenden and 13 more	91 min
May 16, 6:39 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clay, Cleburne and 20 more	2 hr
May 15, 8:38 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cotton, Jackson, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman	2 hr
May 15, 10:25 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Cotton, Jackson, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman	6 hr
May 15, 10:30 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Custer, Dewey and 8 more	2 hr
May 15, 11:32 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cimarron, Texas	118 min
May 15, 11:35 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Alfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche and 13 more	4 hr
May 15, 11:49 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cotton, Jackson, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman	86 min
May 16, 1:20 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal and 33 more	6 hr
May 16, 1:22 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Custer and 16 more	53 min
May 16, 2:33 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal and 16 more	57 min
May 16, 3:07 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal and 33 more	53 min
May 16, 5:22 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Coal, Johnston, Latimer and 10 more	53 min
May 16, 11:35 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Creek, Garfield, Grady and 20 more	2 hr
May 16, 12:00 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Adair, Canadian, Cherokee, Craig, Creek, Delaware and 23 more	6 hr
May 16, 1:46 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cherokee, Creek, Lincoln, Logan, McIntosh, Mayes and 12 more	89 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.