Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 1012

May 15, 20035 counties in Oklahoma; 34 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 15, 2003, 11:49 PM CDT for 5 counties in Oklahoma; 34 counties in Texas. It was in force for 86 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 15, 2003, 11:49 PM CDT (04:49 UTC)
Expired: May 16, 2003, 1:15 AM CDT
In force: 86 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 39 counties

Cotton County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Childress County, TX, Clay County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Erath County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Foard County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Hood County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Jones County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Knox County, TX, Montague County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 222 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2441 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -99 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 748 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 104 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 227 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.5
Supercell composite: 10.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

855 
ACUS11 KWNS 160450
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160449 
TXZ000-OKZ000-160615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX AND FAR SWRN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 387...

VALID 160449Z - 160615Z

ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NEWD AT 40-50 KTS FROM
NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK. IF CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...IT
WILL BE ON THE NERN EDGE OF WW 387 BETWEEN 16/06Z AND 16/07Z. THUS A
NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/ERN OK IN THE NEXT HOUR.

SURFACE BASED SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER
AREAS NEAR CHILDRESS AND SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE AS STRONG MID LEVEL
FORCING/COOLING SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE REMAINING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. FARTHER SOUTH OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WW 387...SUPERCELL
OVER PALO PINTO COUNTY APPEARS TO BE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND THUS A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED...WITH A NEW WW NOT ANTICIPATED OVER NCENTRAL TX IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CROSBIE.. 05/16/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

32160067 33400100 34700044 34629778 32149725

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 15, 8:38 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cotton, Jackson, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman	2 hr
May 15, 10:25 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Cotton, Jackson, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman	6 hr
May 15, 10:30 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Custer, Dewey and 8 more	2 hr
May 15, 11:32 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cimarron, Texas	118 min
May 15, 11:35 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Alfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche and 13 more	4 hr
May 16, 1:20 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal and 33 more	6 hr
May 16, 1:22 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Custer and 16 more	53 min
May 16, 2:33 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal and 16 more	57 min
May 16, 3:07 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal and 33 more	53 min
May 16, 4:04 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 36 more	56 min
May 16, 4:25 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adair, Cherokee, Craig, Delaware, Haskell, LeFlore and 4 more	5 hr
May 16, 5:22 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Coal, Johnston, Latimer and 10 more	53 min
May 16, 5:47 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Cherokee, Delaware, Haskell, LeFlore, McCurtain and 2 more	58 min
May 16, 6:35 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Cherokee, Delaware, Haskell, LeFlore, McCurtain and 2 more	25 min
May 16, 9:16 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Choctaw, Latimer, McCurtain, Pushmataha	119 min
May 16, 11:35 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Creek, Garfield, Grady and 20 more	2 hr
May 16, 12:00 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Adair, Canadian, Cherokee, Craig, Creek, Delaware and 23 more	6 hr
May 16, 12:09 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore and 3 more	3 hr
May 16, 12:45 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Coal, Haskell, Hughes and 10 more	5 hr
May 16, 1:46 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cherokee, Creek, Lincoln, Logan, McIntosh, Mayes and 12 more	89 min
May 16, 3:18 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	LeFlore, McCurtain	117 min
May 16, 3:55 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Adair	6 hr
May 16, 5:06 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	McCurtain	54 min
May 16, 5:45 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	McCurtain	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.