Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 1011

May 15, 2003Cimarron County, Texas County, Oklahoma; 11 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 15, 2003, 11:32 PM CDT for Cimarron County, Texas County, Oklahoma; 11 counties in Texas. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 15, 2003, 11:32 PM CDT (04:32 UTC)
Expired: May 16, 2003, 1:30 AM CDT
In force: 118 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Moore County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Sherman County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 4.5 hours before the alert went out and 75 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2687 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -75 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1311 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 82 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 213 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 482 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 4.0
Supercell composite: 19.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

833 
ACUS11 KWNS 160432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160432 
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-160630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN-CNTRL OK PAN/WRN-CNTRL TX PAN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 160432Z - 160630Z

CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR ERN NM MAY STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY AND
MOVE EWD INTO THE WCNTRL TX PANHANDLE. MAIN THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE HAIL. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING IN THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE BEHIND
A COLD FRONT POSITIONED NEAR AMARILLO. COLD AIR ALOFT AND
LARGE-SCALE FORCING HAS SUPPORTED THUNDERSTORMS UNDER THE UPPER-LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. THE AIR MASS WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SFC DEWPS
IN THE AREA IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS WEAK...HOWEVER DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT
WITH TEMPS OF -14 C AT 500 MB...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED AND MARGINAL ENOUGH NOT TO WARRANT A WW.  

..BROYLES.. 05/16/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...

35040301 35930307 36930299 36970209 36950099 36160091
35550095 34970107 34910227

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 15, 8:38 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cotton, Jackson, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman	2 hr
May 15, 10:25 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Cotton, Jackson, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman	6 hr
May 15, 10:30 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Custer, Dewey and 8 more	2 hr
May 15, 11:35 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Alfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche and 13 more	4 hr
May 15, 11:49 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cotton, Jackson, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman	86 min
May 16, 1:20 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal and 33 more	6 hr
May 16, 1:22 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Custer and 16 more	53 min
May 16, 2:33 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal and 16 more	57 min
May 16, 3:07 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal and 33 more	53 min
May 16, 4:04 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 36 more	56 min
May 16, 4:25 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adair, Cherokee, Craig, Delaware, Haskell, LeFlore and 4 more	5 hr
May 16, 5:22 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Coal, Johnston, Latimer and 10 more	53 min
May 16, 5:47 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Cherokee, Delaware, Haskell, LeFlore, McCurtain and 2 more	58 min
May 16, 6:35 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Cherokee, Delaware, Haskell, LeFlore, McCurtain and 2 more	25 min
May 16, 9:16 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Choctaw, Latimer, McCurtain, Pushmataha	119 min
May 16, 11:35 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Creek, Garfield, Grady and 20 more	2 hr
May 16, 12:00 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Adair, Canadian, Cherokee, Craig, Creek, Delaware and 23 more	6 hr
May 16, 12:09 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore and 3 more	3 hr
May 16, 12:45 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Coal, Haskell, Hughes and 10 more	5 hr
May 16, 1:46 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cherokee, Creek, Lincoln, Logan, McIntosh, Mayes and 12 more	89 min
May 16, 3:18 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	LeFlore, McCurtain	117 min
May 16, 3:55 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Adair	6 hr
May 16, 5:06 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	McCurtain	54 min
May 16, 5:45 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	McCurtain	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.