Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 1015

May 16, 200310 counties in Kansas; 39 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 16, 2003, 3:07 AM CDT for 10 counties in Kansas; 39 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 53 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 16, 2003, 3:07 AM CDT (08:07 UTC)
Expired
May 16, 2003, 4:00 AM CDT
In force
53 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 49 counties

Butler County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Elk County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Carter County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Coal County, OK, Creek County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grant County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Kay County, OK, Latimer County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, McClain County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Murray County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Noble County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Osage County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2003-05-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1353 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2003-05-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 90 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1353 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-120 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1001 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
90 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
280 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.3
Supercell composite
3.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

712 
ACUS11 KWNS 160807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160807 
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-160900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN OK/SERN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 389...

VALID 160807Z - 160900Z

PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL OVER THE ERN HALF OF OK.

07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
BGD-CDS-SPS...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH OK AND CURRENTLY
EXTENDS EWD FROM BGD INTO OK...FROM SOUTH OF GAG TO NEAR MKO. 
STRONG SSWLY LLJ CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE NWD AND COMBINED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES MOVING EWD ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS...THE
AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH TIME OVER CENTRAL-ERN OK. 
LOW LCLS AND INCREASING SFC-3 KM SRH VALUES WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO
THREAT WITH STORMS AHEAD OF/AND WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH
EXTENDS FROM KAY TO LOVE COUNTIES OK.

A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH STORMS MOVING INTO
SERN KS WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.

..PETERS.. 05/16/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

37489799 37809791 37989562 36999536 35409526 33909515
33899632 33899757

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 15, 7:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Lane and 11 more2 hr
May 15, 10:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Harper2 hr
May 15, 11:35 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Harper4 hr
May 16, 1:22 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Chautauqua, Cowley, Harper, Kingman, Sumner53 min
May 16, 4:04 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Labette, Montgomery, Neosho and 2 more56 min
May 15, 8:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCotton, Jackson, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman2 hr
May 15, 10:25 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCotton, Jackson, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman6 hr
May 15, 11:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCimarron, Texas118 min
May 15, 11:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCotton, Jackson, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman86 min
May 16, 1:20 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal and 33 more6 hr
May 16, 2:33 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal and 16 more57 min
May 16, 4:25 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Cherokee, Craig, Delaware, Haskell, LeFlore and 4 more5 hr
May 16, 5:22 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Coal, Johnston, Latimer and 10 more53 min
May 16, 5:47 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Cherokee, Delaware, Haskell, LeFlore, McCurtain and 2 more58 min
May 16, 6:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Cherokee, Delaware, Haskell, LeFlore, McCurtain and 2 more25 min
May 16, 9:16 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChoctaw, Latimer, McCurtain, Pushmataha119 min
May 16, 11:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Creek, Garfield, Grady and 20 more2 hr
May 16, 12:00 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Canadian, Cherokee, Craig, Creek, Delaware and 23 more6 hr
May 16, 12:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore and 3 more3 hr
May 16, 12:45 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAtoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Coal, Haskell, Hughes and 10 more5 hr
May 16, 1:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherokee, Creek, Lincoln, Logan, McIntosh, Mayes and 12 more89 min
May 16, 3:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLeFlore, McCurtain117 min
May 16, 3:55 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdair6 hr
May 16, 5:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMcCurtain54 min
May 16, 5:45 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCMcCurtain6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.