Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 1021

May 16, 20034 counties in Arkansas; 4 counties in Oklahoma; 49 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 16, 2003, 9:16 AM CDT for 4 counties in Arkansas; 4 counties in Oklahoma; 49 counties in Texas. It was in force for 119 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 16, 2003, 9:16 AM CDT (14:16 UTC)
Expired
May 16, 2003, 11:15 AM CDT
In force
119 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 57 counties

Howard County, AR, Little River County, AR, Polk County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Choctaw County, OK, Latimer County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Anderson County, TX, Austin County, TX, Bowie County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Delta County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Houston County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Lee County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Madison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Milam County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Morris County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Panola County, TX, Rains County, TX, Red River County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Rusk County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, Smith County, TX, Titus County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Walker County, TX, Waller County, TX, Washington County, TX, Wood County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 150 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 2.3 hours before the alert went out and 159 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2003-05-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1766 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2003-05-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 433 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1766 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-112 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
658 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
433 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
436 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.6
Supercell composite
22.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

783 
ACUS11 KWNS 161416
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161416 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-161615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0916 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SE OK/NE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161416Z - 161615Z

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER SE OK AND NE TX...FROM MCALESTER TO COLLEGE STATION.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG IN ERN
TX. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM LCH AND SHV SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP...BUT
THE FORT WORTH SOUNDING MAY BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS
THAT IS SPREADING INTO E TX. 850MB ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CONVECTION IS
FORMING ALONG AN ELEVATED CONFLUENCE AXIS WITH WARM MOIST AIR
FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST. STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED...AND COLD BUBBLE / ANALYZED NEAR TYLER/LUFKIN/  LEFT OVER
FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS ALSO ENHANCING LIFT.

FARTHER SOUTH...SFC BASED STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY AND MAY INCREASE
GIVEN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. ALSO DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EVEN BETTER
IN THIS AREA GIVEN STRONGER MID LEVEL WLY FLOW. SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS...AND A WW MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING. 

..TAYLOR.. 05/16/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...

30419744 32789652 33849628 35089554 34479387 33539403
31849430 30189527 29589690

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 16, 4:04 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Crawford, Franklin and 17 more56 min
May 16, 4:25 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Howard, Johnson and 10 more5 hr
May 16, 5:47 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Howard, Johnson and 10 more58 min
May 16, 6:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Cleburne and 36 more25 min
May 16, 6:50 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArkansas, Baxter, Boone, Cleburne, Cleveland, Conway and 27 more4 hr
May 16, 7:42 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Baxter, Boone, Cleburne, Cleveland, Conway and 26 more63 min
May 16, 9:39 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Crittenden, Mississippi96 min
May 16, 12:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Conway and 28 more3 hr
May 16, 12:45 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland, Columbia and 33 more5 hr
May 16, 2:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Baxter, Boone, Clark, Clay, Cleburne and 44 more93 min
May 16, 2:50 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Ashley, Chicot, Clay, Craighead, Crittenden and 16 more7 hr
May 16, 3:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Garland, Hempstead, Hot Spring, Howard, Little River and 11 more117 min
May 16, 3:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Fulton, Izard and 6 more116 min
May 16, 3:55 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Fulton, Independence and 8 more6 hr
May 16, 5:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland, Columbia and 33 more54 min
May 16, 5:45 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland and 40 more6 hr
May 16, 5:59 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Chicot, Clay, Craighead, Crittenden and 13 more91 min
May 16, 6:39 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clay, Cleburne and 20 more2 hr
May 15, 8:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCotton, Jackson, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman2 hr
May 15, 10:25 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCotton, Jackson, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman6 hr
May 15, 10:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Custer, Dewey and 8 more2 hr
May 15, 11:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCimarron, Texas118 min
May 15, 11:35 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche and 13 more4 hr
May 15, 11:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCotton, Jackson, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman86 min
May 16, 1:20 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal and 33 more6 hr
May 16, 1:22 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Custer and 16 more53 min
May 16, 2:33 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal and 16 more57 min
May 16, 3:07 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal and 33 more53 min
May 16, 5:22 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Coal, Johnston, Latimer and 10 more53 min
May 16, 11:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Creek, Garfield, Grady and 20 more2 hr
May 16, 12:00 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Canadian, Cherokee, Craig, Creek, Delaware and 23 more6 hr
May 16, 1:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherokee, Creek, Lincoln, Logan, McIntosh, Mayes and 12 more89 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.