Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 1010

May 15, 20034 counties in Kansas; 14 counties in Oklahoma; 7 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 15, 2003, 10:30 PM CDT for 4 counties in Kansas; 14 counties in Oklahoma; 7 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 15, 2003, 10:30 PM CDT (03:30 UTC)
Expired
May 16, 2003, 12:30 AM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 25 counties

Barber County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Harper County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Beaver County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harper County, OK, Major County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK, Collingsworth County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

The radar

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 141 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 3.5 hours before the alert went out and 197 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2003-05-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 351 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2003-05-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 417 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
351 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-254 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
723 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
417 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
695 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

482 
ACUS11 KWNS 160330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160330 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-160530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PAN/SRN KS/WRN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 386...

VALID 160330Z - 160530Z

LINE OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE ECNTRL TX
PAN/OK PAN/SWRN KS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO WRN OK/SCNTRL KS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR AS
WATCH 386 IS CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT 05Z.

LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS CAUSING THE ATMOSPHERE TO OVERTURN RESULTING
IN A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS FROM DDC S TO SHAMROCK. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED AS IT MOVES EWD INTO
THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVER WRN OK. STRONG SELY FLOW COUPLED WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F AND TEMPS IN THE 80S WERE CONTRIBUTING TO
SBCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG. THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 80 KT WILL KEEP THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS OVERNIGHT. SR HELICITIES AROUND 500 M2/S2 AND STRONG
INFLOW WINDS AROUND 30 KT WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH
SUPERCELLS.   

..BROYLES.. 05/16/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

35579852 34989884 34840000 34910107 35810088 36660059
37250017 37389908 37259794 36169824

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 15, 7:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Lane and 11 more2 hr
May 15, 11:35 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Harper4 hr
May 16, 1:22 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Chautauqua, Cowley, Harper, Kingman, Sumner53 min
May 16, 3:07 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Chautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Greenwood, Montgomery and 4 more53 min
May 16, 4:04 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Labette, Montgomery, Neosho and 2 more56 min
May 15, 8:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCotton, Jackson, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman2 hr
May 15, 10:25 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCotton, Jackson, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman6 hr
May 15, 11:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCimarron, Texas118 min
May 15, 11:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCotton, Jackson, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman86 min
May 16, 1:20 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal and 33 more6 hr
May 16, 2:33 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal and 16 more57 min
May 16, 4:25 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Cherokee, Craig, Delaware, Haskell, LeFlore and 4 more5 hr
May 16, 5:22 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Coal, Johnston, Latimer and 10 more53 min
May 16, 5:47 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Cherokee, Delaware, Haskell, LeFlore, McCurtain and 2 more58 min
May 16, 6:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Cherokee, Delaware, Haskell, LeFlore, McCurtain and 2 more25 min
May 16, 9:16 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChoctaw, Latimer, McCurtain, Pushmataha119 min
May 16, 11:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Creek, Garfield, Grady and 20 more2 hr
May 16, 12:00 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Canadian, Cherokee, Craig, Creek, Delaware and 23 more6 hr
May 16, 12:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore and 3 more3 hr
May 16, 12:45 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAtoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Coal, Haskell, Hughes and 10 more5 hr
May 16, 1:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherokee, Creek, Lincoln, Logan, McIntosh, Mayes and 12 more89 min
May 16, 3:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLeFlore, McCurtain117 min
May 16, 3:55 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdair6 hr
May 16, 5:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMcCurtain54 min
May 16, 5:45 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCMcCurtain6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.