Alert archive / North Dakota / Cavalier County
Weather alerts in Cavalier County, North Dakota, 2015
127 weather alerts in 2015, from the National Weather Service and the Storm Prediction Center. An alert counts here when it covered this county.
Cavalier County and its neighbors
Each county as a circle sized by its count in 2015. Tap one for its archive.
- Alerts
- 127
- Warnings
- 33
- Watches
- 18
- Advisories
- 59
- Busiest month
- July19 alerts
- Busiest day
- July 24, 20156 alerts
Over time
By month
Warning verification
How often warnings here had a storm report inside them, and how much warning the reports had.
2 of 3 tornado warnings covering Cavalier County in 2015 had a tornado report inside them; 6 of 6 tornado reports fell inside a warning, on average 31 minutes after it went out.
Cavalier County, 2015
| Warnings | With a report | False alarm ratio | Reports | Inside a warning | Mean lead time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tornado warnings | 3 | 2 | 33% | 6 | 100% | 31 min |
| Severe thunderstorm warnings | 8 | 6 | 25% | 1 | 100% | 5 min |
| Flash flood warnings | 0 | 0 |
Each office's whole area, 2015
| Warnings | With a report | False alarm ratio | Reports | Inside a warning | Mean lead time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWS Grand Forks, ND: tornado warnings | 52 | 14 | 73% | 54 | 85% | 22 min |
| NWS Grand Forks, ND: severe thunderstorm warnings | 133 | 103 | 23% | 324 | 69% | 27 min |
| NWS Grand Forks, ND: flash flood warnings | 1 | 1 | 0% | 2 | 100% | 253 min |
An office's figures cover every county it serves, including across state lines.
Verified by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow, which matches each storm-based warning with the local storm reports inside its polygon while it was in force, within 15 km of its edge: a tornado warning counts as verified on a tornado report, a severe thunderstorm warning on hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more, or wind damage, a flash flood warning on a flash flood report. The false alarm ratio is the share of warnings with no such report; "inside a warning" is the probability of detection, the share of reports that fell inside one; lead time runs from the warning's issue to each report inside it, counting zero for a report that came first. A warning with no report is not proof nothing happened: reports come from spotters, the public and damage surveys, and are thin where few people live.
The alerts
Every alert, in the order issued. Times are local, Central Time. Each opens its own page with the text, the map, the radar and the sounding.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 4:21 AM CST | Winter Storm Watch | FGF | 24 hr |
| Jan 2, 4:17 AM CST | Winter Storm Warning | FGF | 35 hr |
| Jan 2, 4:17 AM CST | Winter Weather Advisory | FGF | 35 hr |
| Jan 3, 2:49 PM CST | Wind Chill Warning | FGF | 45 hr |
| Jan 5, 3:13 PM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | FGF | 33 hr |
| Jan 6, 3:41 AM CST | Wind Chill Warning | FGF | 32 hr |
| Jan 7, 3:36 AM CST | Blizzard Watch | FGF | 12 hr |
| Jan 7, 3:21 PM CST | Blizzard Warning | FGF | 27 hr |
| Jan 8, 3:33 PM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | FGF | 20 hr |
| Jan 9, 3:30 PM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | FGF | 21 hr |
| Jan 10, 3:31 PM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | FGF | 20 hr |
| Jan 11, 2:11 PM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | FGF | 20 hr |
| Jan 12, 3:11 PM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | FGF | 19 hr |
| Jan 17, 3:59 AM CST | Wind Advisory | FGF | 9 hr |
| Jan 22, 11:03 PM CST | Freezing Rain Advisory | FGF | 8 hr |
| Jan 28, 4:00 AM CST | Dense Fog Advisory | FGF | 8 hr |
| Jan 31, 3:16 PM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | FGF | 20 hr |
| Feb 3, 9:50 PM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | FGF | 12 hr |
| Feb 9, 3:19 PM CST | Winter Weather Advisory | FGF | 37 hr |
| Feb 11, 4:07 AM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | FGF | 32 hr |
| Feb 13, 3:15 PM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | FGF | 23 hr |
| Feb 15, 1:25 AM CST | Winter Weather Advisory | FGF | 8 hr |
| Feb 16, 3:29 PM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | FGF | 45 hr |
| Feb 17, 3:32 AM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | FGF | 55 hr |
| Feb 20, 2:50 PM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | FGF | 30 hr |
| Feb 21, 3:49 AM CST | Wind Chill Warning | FGF | 32 hr |
| Feb 22, 11:40 AM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | FGF | 21 hr |
| Feb 25, 3:12 PM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | FGF | 20 hr |
| Feb 26, 2:38 PM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | FGF | 19 hr |
| Mar 2, 2:32 PM CST | Wind Advisory | FGF | 27 hr |
| Mar 3, 3:28 PM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | FGF | 21 hr |
| Mar 4, 3:34 PM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | FGF | 18 hr |
| Mar 25, 3:36 AM CDT | Wind Advisory | FGF | 14 hr |
| Mar 28, 3:33 PM CDT | Wind Advisory | FGF | 27 hr |
| Mar 31, 3:13 PM CDT | Fire Weather Watch | FGF | 13 hr |
| Apr 1, 4:17 AM CDT | Red Flag Warning | FGF | 15 hr |
| Apr 12, 1:46 PM CDT | Fire Weather Watch | FGF | 14 hr |
| Apr 13, 3:37 AM CDT | Red Flag Warning | FGF | 16 hr |
| Apr 13, 1:17 PM CDT | Wind Advisory | FGF | 5 hr |
| Apr 13, 3:06 PM CDT | Fire Weather Watch | FGF | 12 hr |
| Apr 14, 3:31 AM CDT | Fire Weather Watch | FGF | 24 hr |
| Apr 14, 3:31 AM CDT | Red Flag Warning | FGF | 17 hr |
| Apr 15, 3:15 AM CDT | Red Flag Warning | FGF | 17 hr |
| Apr 15, 3:38 AM CDT | Wind Advisory | FGF | 15 hr |
| Apr 15, 3:42 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | FGF | 48 min |
| Apr 15, 4:44 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | FGF | 61 min |
| Apr 17, 6:53 AM CDT | Red Flag Warning | FGF | 13 hr |
| Apr 20, 5:31 AM CDT | Wind Advisory | FGF | 15 hr |
| Apr 21, 11:17 AM CDT | Wind Advisory | FGF | 8 hr |
| Apr 28, 5:01 AM CDT | Dense Fog Advisory | FGF | 5 hr |
| Apr 29, 2:59 PM CDT | Red Flag Warning | FGF | 28 hr |
| May 1, 3:10 PM CDT | Fire Weather Watch | FGF | 13 hr |
| May 2, 4:22 AM CDT | Red Flag Warning | FGF | 16 hr |
| May 3, 6:54 PM CDT | Frost Advisory | FGF | 13 hr |
| May 4, 3:17 PM CDT | Fire Weather Watch | FGF | 13 hr |
| May 5, 4:45 AM CDT | Red Flag Warning | FGF | 14 hr |
| May 8, 2:52 PM CDT | Frost Advisory | FGF | 18 hr |
| May 11, 3:26 PM CDT | Freeze Warning | FGF | 18 hr |
| May 17, 3:57 AM CDT | Winter Weather Advisory | FGF | 27 hr |
| May 17, 3:58 AM CDT | Wind Advisory | FGF | 31 hr |
| May 17, 6:00 PM CDT | High Wind Warning | FGF | 5 hr |
| May 18, 3:21 AM CDT | Freeze Warning | FGF | 30 hr |
| May 19, 2:53 PM CDT | Frost Advisory | FGF | 17 hr |
| May 29, 3:18 PM CDT | Frost Advisory | FGF | 17 hr |
| Jun 1, 8:45 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | FGF | 60 min |
| Jun 6, 10:43 AM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | FGF | 9 hr |
| Jun 20, 3:38 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | 52 min |
| Jun 27, 2:01 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 119 min |
| Jun 27, 2:42 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | 7 hr |
| Jun 27, 3:01 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | 44 min |
| Jun 27, 3:34 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | 41 min |
| Jun 27, 4:12 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | 48 min |
| Jul 4, 6:49 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 116 min |
| Jul 11, 5:40 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 7 hr |
| Jul 11, 9:04 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 86 min |
| Jul 12, 2:54 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 96 min |
| Jul 12, 3:06 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 7 hr |
| Jul 12, 5:53 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 97 min |
| Jul 12, 8:16 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 59 min |
| Jul 16, 12:33 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | FGF | 42 min |
| Jul 16, 1:13 AM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | FGF | 11 hr |
| Jul 23, 3:58 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 11 hr |
| Jul 23, 7:39 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | FGF | 66 min |
| Jul 23, 8:25 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | 65 min |
| Jul 23, 8:48 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | FGF | 42 min |
| Jul 23, 9:07 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | 53 min |
| Jul 23, 9:23 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | 52 min |
| Jul 23, 10:09 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | 66 min |
| Jul 25, 4:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr |
| Jul 27, 10:49 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 5 hr |
| Jul 28, 4:02 AM CDT | Wind Advisory | FGF | 39 hr |
| Aug 1, 8:53 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Aug 15, 3:36 AM CDT | Heat Advisory | FGF | 15 hr |
| Aug 15, 3:38 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 67 min |
| Aug 15, 6:13 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
| Aug 22, 9:42 AM CDT | Wind Advisory | FGF | 33 hr |
| Aug 22, 10:17 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | 58 min |
| Sep 4, 11:28 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | 47 min |
| Sep 4, 12:42 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | 27 min |
| Sep 4, 1:55 PM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | FGF | 3 hr |
| Sep 6, 4:42 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | FGF | 48 min |
| Sep 10, 2:54 PM CDT | Frost Advisory | FGF | 18 hr |
| Sep 23, 9:00 PM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | FGF | 9 hr |
| Sep 24, 4:30 AM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | FGF | 5 hr |
| Sep 25, 3:44 AM CDT | Dense Fog Advisory | FGF | 7 hr |
| Sep 26, 3:50 AM CDT | Wind Advisory | FGF | 15 hr |
| Sep 28, 2:29 PM CDT | Freeze Warning | FGF | 18 hr |
| Oct 6, 3:41 PM CDT | Frost Advisory | FGF | 16 hr |
| Oct 8, 9:53 PM CDT | Frost Advisory | FGF | 10 hr |
| Oct 9, 3:03 AM CDT | Dense Fog Advisory | FGF | 7 hr |
| Oct 10, 3:38 PM CDT | High Wind Watch | FGF | 19 hr |
| Oct 11, 10:41 AM CDT | High Wind Warning | FGF | 29 hr |
| Oct 15, 3:36 AM CDT | Freeze Warning | FGF | 30 hr |
| Oct 28, 4:04 AM CDT | Wind Advisory | FGF | 19 hr |
| Nov 2, 6:20 AM CST | Dense Fog Advisory | FGF | 5 hr |
| Nov 3, 2:46 PM CST | Dense Fog Advisory | FGF | 31 hr |
| Nov 10, 2:33 AM CST | Dense Fog Advisory | FGF | 9 hr |
| Nov 17, 11:36 AM CST | High Wind Watch | FGF | 16 hr |
| Nov 18, 3:50 AM CST | High Wind Warning | FGF | 20 hr |
| Nov 18, 3:50 AM CST | Wind Advisory | FGF | 40 hr |
| Dec 12, 5:03 PM CST | Dense Fog Advisory | FGF | 42 hr |
| Dec 14, 4:05 AM CST | Winter Storm Watch | FGF | 35 hr |
| Dec 15, 2:43 PM CST | Winter Storm Warning | FGF | 28 hr |
| Dec 21, 3:27 AM CST | Winter Storm Watch | FGF | 24 hr |
| Dec 22, 3:29 AM CST | Winter Storm Warning | FGF | 27 hr |
| Dec 22, 12:05 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 6 hr |
| Dec 26, 3:28 PM CST | Wind Chill Advisory | FGF | 19 hr |
By product
Every kind of product issued here, grouped by hazard. Each opens the same place narrowed to that product.
The busiest days
Days with the most alerts issued, by UTC date.
Nearby
Alerts in force nowTornadoes on recordForecastThe radar archive20142016
Sources
National Weather Service watches, warnings, advisories and statements from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's VTEC archive, which reconstructs tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood and marine warnings back to 1986 from the NWS text archive. Storm Prediction Center watches and mesoscale discussions from SPC's archive through the Mesonet. County centers from the US Census Bureau. Warning verification from the Mesonet's Cow. Rebuilt daily.