Frost Advisory 1, NWS Grand Forks, ND

780 
WWUS73 KFGF 041245
NPWFGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
745 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015


NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-054-041345-
/O.EXP.KFGF.FR.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150504T1300Z/
TOWNER-CAVALIER-BENSON-RAMSEY-EDDY-NELSON-WESTERN WALSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CANDO...LANGDON...MADDOCK...LEEDS...
DEVILS LAKE...NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...ADAMS
745 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM RAPIDLY INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
CLIMB EVEN HIGHER DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
653 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
TONIGHT. MID 20S DEWPOINTS AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL
EFFICIENTLY IN TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. SOME SFC DEW POINT RECOVERY
WILL OCCUR WITH ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLING...ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY A BIT MORE WIND AND POSSIBLE MID CLOUD TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT
HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING PCPN
CHANCES TOWARDS MIDWEEK. MODELS OVERALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
SOME PCPN PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES MIDWEEK WHICH IS NO BIG SURPRISE.
WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE IN LATER PERIODS AS A RESULT.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FA FOR DIMINISHING
WINDS. COULD STILL SEE SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE SE FA
FOR A TIME THIS EVENING HOWEVER BY LATE EVENING GENERALLY SKC
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WITH COOLER COLUMN ACROSS THE FA
SHOULD SEE MORE CONSISTENT MINIMUMS ACROSS THE FA AROUND 40 OR SO.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE FA MONDAY FOR SUNSHINE...LIGHT
WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

MODEST RETURN FLOW SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER FAIRLY DRY/COOL
COLUMN IN PLACE SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NE FROM 4 CORNERS AREA TUESDAY. AS IT
DOES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WITH E-W BOUNDARY SETTING UP ACROSS THE PLAINS ON NORTHERN
FRINGE OF NORTHWARD ADVANCING MOISTURE FLUX. AT THIS POINT ANY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FA.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BOUNDARY AND DEEPER LAYERED RH WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE. EXPECT BAND
OF PCPN TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES TOO TOUGH AT THIS TIME TO PIN POINT POPS SO
INCREASED POPS FROM S-N TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEPT GENERAL LIKELY POPS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. T POTENTIAL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE TIL POSSIBLY
LATER WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON CLOUD COVER HOWEVER
COLUMN FAIRLY MILD SO GENERAL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH DEEP H5
TROF DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEK. THIS KEEP AN UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE FA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD... AND ALLOWS FOR A DEEPENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS... FEEDING STORM SYSTEMS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO ALTERNATE PHASING OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
LIFTING THROUGH THE PATTERN THOUGH CONSENSUS HAS DEEP CONVECTION
THREAT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH A
MORE STABLE PRECIP /WRAPAROUND/ BAND FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CURRENT MODELS DEPICT A BREAK IN PRECIP FROM MID FRI INTO SAT...
WITH A SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SO EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND SUN WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADILY COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

GUSTS BEGINNING TO WANE ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL MAINTAIN THE SKC
AND LIGHT NW WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
     NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-054.

MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...JK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
604 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-041115-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
604 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.