Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 23, 2015Cavalier County, Ramsey County, Towner County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 23, 2015, 8:25 PM CDT for Cavalier County, Ramsey County, Towner County, North Dakota. It was in force for 65 min. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 23, 2015, 8:25 PM CDT (01:25 UTC)
Expired: Jul 23, 2015, 9:30 PM CDT
In force: 65 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Cavalier County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Towner County, ND

The radar

The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 23, 8:35 PM CDT	HAIL 1	1 Se Cando, ND	A FEW HAIL STONES UP TO AN INCH IN SIZE.
Jul 23, 9:40 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	2 N Webster, ND	MULTIPLE 5-6 INCH TREE BRANCHES BROKEN OFF. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
Jul 23, 9:40 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Webster, ND	AN ALMOST COMPLETED NEW SEED BUILDING WAS BLOWN OVER. THIS BUILDING WAS WOODEN FRAMED WITH ABOUT 10 RAFTERS LEFT TO PUT ON BEFORE COMPLETION. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 10 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 23, 3:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	11 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 1.4 hours before the alert went out and 227 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1074 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -71 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2327 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 74 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 137 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

537 
WUUS53 KFGF 240125
SVRFGF
NDC019-071-095-240230-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0079.150724T0125Z-150724T0230Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
825 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN CAVALIER COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
  NORTHWESTERN RAMSEY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
  SOUTHEASTERN TOWNER COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 824 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR ARNDT TO NEAR MAZA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CANDO AROUND 830 PM CDT.
  MAZA AROUND 835 PM CDT.
  EGELAND AROUND 845 PM CDT.
  CALIO AND CLYDE AROUND 915 PM CDT.
  STARKWEATHER AROUND 920 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4878 9928 4879 9865 4822 9870 4834 9920
      4836 9920 4837 9921 4837 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 279DEG 15KT 4871 9922 4842 9926 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TG

1 follow-up statement

888 
WWUS53 KFGF 240152
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
852 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

NDC019-071-095-240230-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-150724T0230Z/
CAVALIER ND-RAMSEY ND-TOWNER ND-
852 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN CAVALIER...NORTHWESTERN RAMSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
TOWNER COUNTIES...

AT 851 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR EGELAND TO NEAR MAZA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CALIO AROUND 915 PM CDT.
  STARKWEATHER...GARSKE AND WEBSTER AROUND 930 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4878 9911 4879 9865 4822 9870 4836 9917
      4836 9920 4837 9921 4838 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 280DEG 15KT 4858 9910 4836 9916 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 23, 6:35 PM CDT, 1 hour 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 23, 6:35 PM CDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL
WEST OF THE AREA. LOOKING LIKE STORMS WILL REACH THE RED RIVER
AROUND OR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL...FRONT IS CURRENTLY
(20Z) LOCATED FROM NORTH OF WINNIPEG INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR DICKINSON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED
ALONG THIS FEATURE IN CANADA (WHERE THE MID- LEVEL CAP IS
WEAKER)...AND WOULD EXPECT THAT THE FORCING ALONG THIS FEATURE IN
NORTH DAKOTA COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING CAP WILL BE ABLE TO
INITIATE STORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE (AT LEAST ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY). ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS WEST OF THE REGION WILL ORGANIZE INTO SOME SORT OF
EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX...CONSIDERING THAT GUIDANCE INDICATES
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40 KNOT 500MB JET) AND A DEVELOPING
40 KNOT 850MB JET. IN FACT...HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN
SHOWING A QLCS EVENT WITH AREAS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS E ND
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MN. SPC IN ON BOARD WITH THIS ASSESSMENT
INDICATING AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR DAMAGING WINDS. QLCS
TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SE ND WHERE 0-3KM SHEAR WILL
BE WEST 30-40 KNOTS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY...BUT THE SYSTEM
APPEARS IT WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL. USED THE LATEST HRRR FOR TIMING OF POPS.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS AND ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK FAST MOVING
WAVE...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES INSTABILITY (LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS)
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z FRIDAY. KEPT WITH A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST AND COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES...WITH NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AMONG THE MODELS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY. KEPT A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMB TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL KEEP WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 80S.
STRONG UPPER WAVE LIFTING FROM PAC NW TO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
CLOSE OFF...WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE LOW INDICATED
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STACKED LOW WILL
BE NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES MOVE TO THE EAST OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
MINNESOTA TUE/WED WITH CHC POPS PREVAILING. THE COMPLEX IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THURS ACCOMPANIED BY A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT TO NW AND A DRIER REGIME TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STORMS
REACHING THE MN/ND BORDER BY MIDNIGHT OR JUST BEFORE. LOW CLOUDS
MAY LINGER BEHIND STORMS INTO MORNING HOURS AT KBJI.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 23, 6:37 AM CDT, 13 hours 48 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
637 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-241145-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
637 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING EAST TONIGHT. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AFTER 5PM AND INTO
THE VALLEY REGION AFTER 8PM AND ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AFTER 11 PM.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 23, 6:43 PM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
643 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

NDZ006-240045-
TOWNER ND-
643 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TOWNER COUNTY UNTIL 745
PM CDT...

AT 642 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES NORTH OF HANSBORO
TO NEAR SHELL VALLEY...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
AMOURDALE AND HANSBORO AROUND 725 PM CDT.
ROCKLAKE AROUND 730 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4900 9952 4900 9900 4895 9900 4869 9911
      4871 9947 4872 9949 4872 9952
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 252DEG 28KT 4919 9926 4876 9980

KNUTSVIG

Special weather statement, Jul 23, 7:39 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
739 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

NDZ007-240145-
CAVALIER ND-
739 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CAVALIER COUNTY
UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 739 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF HANNAH
TO NEAR ROCKLAKE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HANNAH AROUND 755 PM CDT.
  CLYDE AND WALES AROUND 805 PM CDT.
  MUNICH AND MAIDA AROUND 815 PM CDT.
  MOUNT CARMEL AND DRESDEN AROUND 820 PM CDT.
  ALSEN AROUND 830 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4900 9819 4897 9808 4856 9871 4874 9900
      4900 9900
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 305DEG 26KT 4908 9876 4882 9918

KNUTSVIG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 23, 7:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Towner	65 min
Jul 23, 7:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Cavalier	66 min
Jul 23, 8:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson	67 min
Jul 23, 8:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Cavalier, Pembina	42 min
Jul 23, 9:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cavalier, Pembina, Walsh	53 min
Jul 23, 9:20 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	FGF	Benson, Ramsey, Towner	9 hr
Jul 23, 9:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Cavalier, Ramsey, Towner	52 min
Jul 23, 9:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Barnes, Benson, Eddy, Griggs, Nelson	66 min
Jul 23, 10:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Cavalier, Eddy, Nelson, Pembina, Ramsey and 1 more	66 min
Jul 23, 10:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Barnes, Cass, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson, Steele and 1 more	65 min
Jul 23, 10:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Barnes, Cass, Ransom	47 min
Jul 23, 11:14 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Nelson, Steele, Traill	46 min
Jul 23, 11:33 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Steele, Traill	42 min
Jul 23, 11:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Barnes, Cass, Grand Forks, Steele, Traill	65 min
Jul 24, 12:34 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass	56 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.