Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Grand Forks, ND

292 
WWUS53 KFGF 240229
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
929 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

MNC069-NDC019-067-099-240300-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-150724T0300Z/
KITTSON MN-CAVALIER ND-PEMBINA ND-WALSH ND-
929 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN KITTSON...SOUTHEASTERN CAVALIER...PEMBINA AND
WESTERN WALSH COUNTIES...

AT 927 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR HUMBOLDT TO NEAR JOLIETTE TO FAIRDALE...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PEMBINA...HUMBOLDT...JOLIETTE...NOYES AND ST. VINCENT AROUND 930 PM
CDT.
  NORTHCOTE AND ORLEANS AROUND 940 PM CDT.
  HALLOCK AND UNION AROUND 945 PM CDT.
  EDINBURG AND LANCASTER AROUND 950 PM CDT.
  PARK RIVER AROUND 1000 PM CDT.

ALSO INCLUDES INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 191 AND 217.

THIS LINE OF STORMS PRODUCED A 64 MPH WIND GUST IN CAVALIER. 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4900 9675 4881 9679 4821 9804 4850 9831
      4854 9832 4856 9837 4900 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 279DEG 33KT 4898 9711 4885 9715 4849 9819 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TG

731 
WWUS53 KFGF 240251
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
951 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

MNC069-NDC019-067-099-240300-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-150724T0300Z/
KITTSON MN-CAVALIER ND-PEMBINA ND-WALSH ND-
951 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN KITTSON...
SOUTHEASTERN CAVALIER...PEMBINA AND WESTERN WALSH COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 1000 PM CDT...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4900 9675 4881 9679 4821 9804 4850 9831
      4854 9832 4856 9837 4900 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 309DEG 16KT 4898 9711 4885 9715 4849 9819 

$$

TG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL
WEST OF THE AREA. LOOKING LIKE STORMS WILL REACH THE RED RIVER
AROUND OR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL...FRONT IS CURRENTLY
(20Z) LOCATED FROM NORTH OF WINNIPEG INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR DICKINSON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED
ALONG THIS FEATURE IN CANADA (WHERE THE MID- LEVEL CAP IS
WEAKER)...AND WOULD EXPECT THAT THE FORCING ALONG THIS FEATURE IN
NORTH DAKOTA COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING CAP WILL BE ABLE TO
INITIATE STORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE (AT LEAST ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY). ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS WEST OF THE REGION WILL ORGANIZE INTO SOME SORT OF
EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX...CONSIDERING THAT GUIDANCE INDICATES
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40 KNOT 500MB JET) AND A DEVELOPING
40 KNOT 850MB JET. IN FACT...HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN
SHOWING A QLCS EVENT WITH AREAS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS E ND
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MN. SPC IN ON BOARD WITH THIS ASSESSMENT
INDICATING AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR DAMAGING WINDS. QLCS
TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SE ND WHERE 0-3KM SHEAR WILL
BE WEST 30-40 KNOTS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY...BUT THE SYSTEM
APPEARS IT WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL. USED THE LATEST HRRR FOR TIMING OF POPS.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS AND ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK FAST MOVING
WAVE...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES INSTABILITY (LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS)
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z FRIDAY. KEPT WITH A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST AND COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES...WITH NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AMONG THE MODELS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY. KEPT A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMB TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL KEEP WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 80S.
STRONG UPPER WAVE LIFTING FROM PAC NW TO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
CLOSE OFF...WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE LOW INDICATED
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STACKED LOW WILL
BE NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES MOVE TO THE EAST OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
MINNESOTA TUE/WED WITH CHC POPS PREVAILING. THE COMPLEX IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THURS ACCOMPANIED BY A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT TO NW AND A DRIER REGIME TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STORMS
REACHING THE MN/ND BORDER BY MIDNIGHT OR JUST BEFORE. LOW CLOUDS
MAY LINGER BEHIND STORMS INTO MORNING HOURS AT KBJI.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
637 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-241145-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
637 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING EAST TONIGHT. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AFTER 5PM AND INTO
THE VALLEY REGION AFTER 8PM AND ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AFTER 11 PM.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
643 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

NDZ006-240045-
TOWNER ND-
643 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TOWNER COUNTY UNTIL 745
PM CDT...

AT 642 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES NORTH OF HANSBORO
TO NEAR SHELL VALLEY...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
AMOURDALE AND HANSBORO AROUND 725 PM CDT.
ROCKLAKE AROUND 730 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4900 9952 4900 9900 4895 9900 4869 9911
      4871 9947 4872 9949 4872 9952
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 252DEG 28KT 4919 9926 4876 9980

KNUTSVIG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
739 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

NDZ007-240145-
CAVALIER ND-
739 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CAVALIER COUNTY
UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 739 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF HANNAH
TO NEAR ROCKLAKE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HANNAH AROUND 755 PM CDT.
  CLYDE AND WALES AROUND 805 PM CDT.
  MUNICH AND MAIDA AROUND 815 PM CDT.
  MOUNT CARMEL AND DRESDEN AROUND 820 PM CDT.
  ALSEN AROUND 830 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4900 9819 4897 9808 4856 9871 4874 9900
      4900 9900
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 305DEG 26KT 4908 9876 4882 9918

KNUTSVIG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
848 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

NDZ007-008-015-016-054-240230-
PEMBINA ND-RAMSEY ND-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY ND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY ND-
CAVALIER ND-
848 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CAVALIER...NORTHEASTERN
RAMSEY...PEMBINA AND NORTHWESTERN WALSH COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 848 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF NECHE
TO NEAR LOMA...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LEROY AROUND 915 PM CDT.
  NECHE AROUND 920 PM CDT.
  NEKOMA AND BATHGATE AROUND 930 PM CDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4900 9727 4899 9725 4854 9718 4852 9854
      4872 9866 4900 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 331DEG 10KT 4904 9766 4870 9852

TG