Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 23, 2015Barnes County, Cass County, Ransom County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 23, 2015, 10:58 PM CDT for Barnes County, Cass County, Ransom County, North Dakota. It was in force for 47 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 23, 2015, 10:58 PM CDT (03:58 UTC)
Expired: Jul 23, 2015, 11:45 PM CDT
In force: 47 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 0.88 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Barnes County, ND, Cass County, ND, Ransom County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 23, 11:25 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	1 S Sanborn, ND	A FEW BRANCHES BROKEN OFF UP TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 27 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 23, 3:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	11 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 4.0 hours before the alert went out and 196 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3528 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1264 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 129 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 209 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 12.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

155 
WUUS53 KFGF 240358
SVRFGF
NDC003-017-073-240445-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0086.150724T0358Z-150724T0445Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1058 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
  RANSOM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
  SOUTHERN BARNES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT

* AT 1058 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR SPIRITWOOD TO NEAR DICKEY...MOVING EAST AT 55
  MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  URBANA AROUND 1100 PM CDT.
  ECKELSON AROUND 1105 PM CDT.
  SANBORN AROUND 1110 PM CDT.
  VALLEY CITY AROUND 1125 PM CDT.
  ENGLEVALE AND FORT RANSOM AROUND 1130 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4663 9803 4663 9844 4697 9844 4698 9750
      4631 9746 4631 9803
TIME...MOT...LOC 0358Z 272DEG 47KT 4699 9848 4647 9850 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TG

1 follow-up statement

545 
WWUS53 KFGF 240420
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1120 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

NDC003-017-073-240445-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-150724T0445Z/
CASS ND-RANSOM ND-BARNES ND-
1120 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN CASS...RANSOM AND SOUTHERN BARNES COUNTIES...

AT 1120 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR SANBORN TO NEAR GRAND RAPIDS...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  VALLEY CITY AROUND 1130 PM CDT.
  ORISKA...ENGLEVALE...FORT RANSOM AND ELLIOTT AROUND 1145 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4663 9844 4696 9844 4697 9750 4631 9746
      4631 9803 4663 9803
TIME...MOT...LOC 0420Z 263DEG 39KT 4698 9818 4641 9835 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TG/DK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 23, 9:37 PM CDT, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 23, 9:37 PM CDT, 1 hour 21 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
937 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST HAVE BEEN STRONG ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA. UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
AND HRRR DATA. LOOKING FOR THIS LINE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH AND
A SECONDARY AREA OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH NEAR NOSE OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET. SEVERE WATCH GOES UNTIL 1 AM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL
WEST OF THE AREA. LOOKING LIKE STORMS WILL REACH THE RED RIVER
AROUND OR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL...FRONT IS CURRENTLY
(20Z) LOCATED FROM NORTH OF WINNIPEG INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR DICKINSON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED
ALONG THIS FEATURE IN CANADA (WHERE THE MID- LEVEL CAP IS
WEAKER)...AND WOULD EXPECT THAT THE FORCING ALONG THIS FEATURE IN
NORTH DAKOTA COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING CAP WILL BE ABLE TO
INITIATE STORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE (AT LEAST ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY). ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS WEST OF THE REGION WILL ORGANIZE INTO SOME SORT OF
EASTWARD MOVING COMPLEX...CONSIDERING THAT GUIDANCE INDICATES
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40 KNOT 500MB JET) AND A DEVELOPING
40 KNOT 850MB JET. IN FACT...HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN
SHOWING A QLCS EVENT WITH AREAS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS E ND
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MN. SPC IN ON BOARD WITH THIS ASSESSMENT
INDICATING AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR DAMAGING WINDS. QLCS
TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SE ND WHERE 0-3KM SHEAR WILL
BE WEST 30-40 KNOTS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY...BUT THE SYSTEM
APPEARS IT WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL. USED THE LATEST HRRR FOR TIMING OF POPS.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS AND ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY WEAK FAST MOVING
WAVE...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES INSTABILITY (LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS)
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z FRIDAY. KEPT WITH A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST AND COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES...WITH NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AMONG THE MODELS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY. KEPT A CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FA...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMB TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL KEEP WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 80S.
STRONG UPPER WAVE LIFTING FROM PAC NW TO SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
CLOSE OFF...WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE LOW INDICATED
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STACKED LOW WILL
BE NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES MOVE TO THE EAST OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
MINNESOTA TUE/WED WITH CHC POPS PREVAILING. THE COMPLEX IS LIKELY
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THURS ACCOMPANIED BY A
GUSTY WIND SHIFT TO NW AND A DRIER REGIME TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STORMS
REACHING THE MN/ND BORDER BY MIDNIGHT OR JUST BEFORE. LOW CLOUDS
MAY LINGER BEHIND STORMS INTO MORNING HOURS AT KBJI.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 23, 6:37 AM CDT, 16 hours 21 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
637 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-241145-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
637 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING EAST TONIGHT. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AFTER 5PM AND INTO
THE VALLEY REGION AFTER 8PM AND ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AFTER 11 PM.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 23, 8:48 PM CDT, 2 hours 10 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
848 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

NDZ007-008-015-016-054-240230-
PEMBINA ND-RAMSEY ND-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY ND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY ND-
CAVALIER ND-
848 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CAVALIER...NORTHEASTERN
RAMSEY...PEMBINA AND NORTHWESTERN WALSH COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 848 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF NECHE
TO NEAR LOMA...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LEROY AROUND 915 PM CDT.
  NECHE AROUND 920 PM CDT.
  NEKOMA AND BATHGATE AROUND 930 PM CDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4900 9727 4899 9725 4854 9718 4852 9854
      4872 9866 4900 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 331DEG 10KT 4904 9766 4870 9852

TG

Local storm report, Jul 23, 9:17 PM CDT, 1 hour 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
917 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND GST     CAVALIER                48.80N 97.62W
07/23/2015  M64 MPH          PEMBINA            ND   AWOS

            PEAK WIND GUST MEASURED 56 KTS.

&&

DRIDDLE

Local storm report, Jul 23, 9:44 PM CDT, 1 hour 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
944 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             1 SE CANDO              48.48N 99.19W
07/23/2015  E1.00 INCH       TOWNER             ND   PUBLIC

            A FEW HAIL STONES UP TO AN INCH IN SIZE.

&&

JKAISER

Local storm report, Jul 23, 10:06 PM CDT, 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1006 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             5 S BISBEE              48.55N 99.38W
07/23/2015  M1.00 INCH       TOWNER             ND   PUBLIC

            FEW HAIL STONES UP TO ONE INCH IN SIZE.

&&

JKAISER

Local storm report, Jul 23, 10:37 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1037 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1027 PM     TSTM WND GST     25 E NEW ROCKFORD       47.68N 98.60W
07/23/2015  M59.00 MPH       EDDY               ND   MESONET

            NDAWN 8 MILES NORTH OF MCHENRY...PEAK MEASURED GUST.

&&

JKAISER

Local storm report, Jul 23, 10:54 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1054 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 PM     TSTM WND GST     61 NE PEKIN             48.41N 97.39W
07/23/2015  M61 MPH          WALSH              ND   MESONET

            NDAWN NEAR PEKIN.

&&

JKAISER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 23, 7:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Towner	65 min
Jul 23, 7:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Cavalier	66 min
Jul 23, 8:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cavalier, Ramsey, Towner	65 min
Jul 23, 8:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson	67 min
Jul 23, 8:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Cavalier, Pembina	42 min
Jul 23, 9:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cavalier, Pembina, Walsh	53 min
Jul 23, 9:20 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	FGF	Benson, Ramsey, Towner	9 hr
Jul 23, 9:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Cavalier, Ramsey, Towner	52 min
Jul 23, 9:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Barnes, Benson, Eddy, Griggs, Nelson	66 min
Jul 23, 10:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Cavalier, Eddy, Nelson, Pembina, Ramsey and 1 more	66 min
Jul 23, 10:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Barnes, Cass, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson, Steele and 1 more	65 min
Jul 23, 11:14 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Nelson, Steele, Traill	46 min
Jul 23, 11:33 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Steele, Traill	42 min
Jul 23, 11:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Barnes, Cass, Grand Forks, Steele, Traill	65 min
Jul 24, 12:34 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass	56 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.