Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2015
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 23, 2015, 3:58 PM CDT for 18 counties in Minnesota; 45 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 11 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 23, 2015, 3:58 PM CDT (20:58 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 24, 2015, 2:44 AM CDT
- In force
- 11 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 65 kt
All 63 counties
Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Adams County, ND, Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Cass County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Foster County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Grant County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Renville County, ND, Richland County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Stark County, ND, Steele County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Towner County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND, Ward County, ND, Wells County, ND
The radar
The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 90%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 40%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 50%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 30%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 95%
Warnings issued inside it
32 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 4:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Ward | 60 min |
| Jul 23, 4:52 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | McLean | 53 min |
| Jul 23, 4:54 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | BIS | McLean, Ward | 36 min |
| Jul 23, 5:15 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | McLean, Mercer | 60 min |
| Jul 23, 5:27 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | BIS | McLean | 33 min |
| Jul 23, 5:28 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Morton, Oliver | 62 min |
| Jul 23, 5:33 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | BIS | McLean, Ward | 27 min |
| Jul 23, 5:41 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | McHenry, McLean, Ward | 64 min |
| Jul 23, 6:07 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | McLean, Mercer | 53 min |
| Jul 23, 7:01 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | McLean, Mercer, Sheridan | 38 min |
| Jul 23, 7:04 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Grant | 56 min |
| Jul 23, 7:06 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Pierce, Rolette | 54 min |
| Jul 23, 7:11 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Burleigh, McLean, Mercer, Oliver | 64 min |
| Jul 23, 7:25 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Towner | 65 min |
| Jul 23, 8:00 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Burleigh, McLean | 60 min |
| Jul 23, 8:16 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Burleigh, Kidder, Sheridan, Wells | 59 min |
| Jul 23, 8:25 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Cavalier, Ramsey, Towner | 65 min |
| Jul 23, 8:38 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Benson | 67 min |
| Jul 23, 9:07 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Kittson | 53 min |
| Jul 23, 9:13 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Foster, Kidder, Stutsman, Wells | 62 min |
| Jul 23, 9:23 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Benson, Cavalier, Ramsey, Towner | 52 min |
| Jul 23, 9:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Foster, Stutsman | 62 min |
| Jul 23, 9:54 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Barnes, Benson, Eddy, Griggs, Nelson | 66 min |
| Jul 23, 10:09 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Benson, Cavalier, Eddy, Nelson, Pembina, Ramsey and 1 more | 66 min |
| Jul 23, 10:16 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | LaMoure, Logan, Stutsman | 59 min |
| Jul 23, 10:40 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Barnes, Cass, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson, Steele and 1 more | 65 min |
| Jul 23, 10:58 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Barnes, Cass, Ransom | 47 min |
| Jul 23, 11:14 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Grand Forks, Nelson, Steele, Traill | 46 min |
| Jul 23, 11:33 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Steele, Traill | 42 min |
| Jul 23, 11:40 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Clay, Norman, Pennington, Polk, Red Lake | 65 min |
| Jul 24, 12:34 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Becker, Clay, Clearwater, Mahnomen, Norman, Polk and 1 more | 56 min |
| Jul 24, 1:24 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Becker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Hubbard, Mahnomen and 5 more | 66 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 79 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 785 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -292 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1367 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 71 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 158 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 1:34 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Burleigh, Emmons, Grant, McHenry, McLean, Mercer and 5 more | 116 min |
| Jul 23, 6:21 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benson, Burleigh, Emmons, Grant, Kidder, McHenry and 10 more | 24 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Dakota, 2015Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Minnesota, 2015Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.