Alert archive / North Dakota / Tornado Warnings in 2015

Tornado Warning 14, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 23, 2015McLean County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this tornado warning at Jul 23, 2015, 5:27 PM CDT for McLean County, North Dakota. It was in force for 33 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 23, 2015, 5:27 PM CDT (22:27 UTC)
Expired: Jul 23, 2015, 6:00 PM CDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Radar indicated
Hail: 0.75 in

County McLean County, ND

The radar

The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 23, 5:55 PM CDT	HAIL 1.75	3 E Garrison, ND	HAIL STARTED AS QUARTER SIZE AT 0555PM CDT AND INCREASED TO GOLFBALL SIZE AT 0602 PM CDT. ONGOING AT TIME OF CALL. WIND GUSTS ALSO ESTIMATED TO 60 MPH GUSTS. BROKEN BRANCHES.
Jul 23, 5:55 PM CDT	HAIL 1.75	3 E Garrison, ND

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this tornado warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 23, 3:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	11 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 785 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -292 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1367 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 71 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 158 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

770 
WFUS53 KBIS 232227
TORBIS
NDC055-232300-
/O.NEW.KBIS.TO.W.0014.150723T2227Z-150723T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
527 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL MCLEAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT
    
* AT 527 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF GARRISON...MOVING EAST AT 10
  MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE 
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY. 

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GARRISON AROUND 600 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4764 10164 4772 10166 4783 10138 4759 10130
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 255DEG 10KT 4768 10162 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

HARGROVE

2 follow-up statements

978 
WWUS53 KBIS 232252
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
552 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

NDC055-232300-
/O.CON.KBIS.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-150723T2300Z/
MCLEAN ND-
552 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN COUNTY...
    
AT 552 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF GARRISON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS 
         LIKELY. 

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GARRISON AROUND 600 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4763 10144 4773 10148 4778 10136 4762 10131
      4763 10137
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 255DEG 10KT 4770 10152 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

HARGROVE

118 
WWUS53 KBIS 232300
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
600 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

NDC055-232309-
/O.EXP.KBIS.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-150723T2300Z/
MCLEAN ND-
600 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
600 PM CDT...
    
THE TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED...THEREFORE THE TORNADO WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN LIKELY
AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4763 10144 4773 10148 4778 10136 4762 10131
      4763 10137
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 255DEG 10KT 4770 10152 

$$

HARGROVE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this tornado warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this tornado warning went out at Jul 23, 2:00 PM CDT, 3 hours 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 23, 2:00 PM CDT, 3 hours 27 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
200 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CENTRAL AND EAST.

CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST REPLACED WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA NOW WITH WINDS WEST OF THE FROPA ACROSS THE FAR WEST
OUT OF THE NORTH OR WEST. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD. DEWPOINTS ARE
VERY MOIST EAST OF THE FRONT UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH MID 80S AND LOW 90S FOR TEMPERATURES RESULTS IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES RIGHT NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. CLOUD COVER
NORTHWEST WITH SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH DAKOTA
ENABLING INSTABILITY UPWARDS TO 4-5K J/KG.

ROBUST CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN 19-21Z WEST OF HIGHWAY
83...THEN DEVELOP/MOVE EAST THROUGH MID EVENING. AS MODELS HAVE
PORTRAYED THE LAST FEW DAYS...BEST 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE INITIALLY
DISPLACED FROM THE HIGHER CAPE...BUT CATCHES UP LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AS A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS.
STILL...ENOUGH CAPE TO OVERCOME LACK OF SHEAR ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL S/WV. AS THE SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION INDICATED...DISCRETE CELLS INITIALLY WILL
TRANSITION TO MCS/BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES TO THE
EAST RESULTING IN DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN THREATS WHERE
AS HAIL WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT FIRST. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG TO EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH.

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EMBEDDED ENERGY
WITHIN THE FLOW TOMORROW SHOULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY NOT TOO GREAT SO THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT FOR FRIDAY WILL BE LOW. STILL WARM BUT MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY BY
SATURDAY...WITH A FEW STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES REACHING
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...STORM
CHANCES INCREASE AS A MID LEVEL WAVE DIGS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
ADVANCES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

BY TUESDAY EVENING THE MIDLEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST TO HAVE LIFTED
NORTHEAST...WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

ALL 5 CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TAF SITES HAVE VCTS IN THE
FORECAST. OTHER THAN REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM A THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING A TERMINAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. STORMS WILL
PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NORTH NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 23, 2:30 PM CDT, 2 hours 57 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
230 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-241930-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
230 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORT ANY HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 701-223-4582 OR VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

NH/JV

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 23, 4:26 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
426 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

NDZ003-011-019-021-232200-
WARD ND-RENVILLE ND-MERCER ND-MCLEAN ND-
426 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
RENVILLE...WARD...NORTH CENTRAL MCLEAN AND NORTHEASTERN MERCER
COUNTIES...

AT 426 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CARPIO TO NEAR HAZEN BAY
RECREATION AREA...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MINOT...GARRISON...MINOT AIR FORCE BASE...BURLINGTON...SURREY...
UNDERWOOD...BERTHOLD...GLENBURN...MAX...RIVERDALE...DES LACS...
CARPIO...MAKOTI...PICK CITY...FOXHOLM...RYDER...COLEHARBOR...RICE
LAKE...DOUGLAS AND ROSEGLEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

IF ON OR NEAR LAKE SAKAKAWEA...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS
OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES
FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO
NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4742 10112 4746 10196 4785 10191 4785 10187
      4802 10188 4847 10182 4855 10135 4854 10115
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 266DEG 21KT 4842 10170 4754 10169

HARGROVE

Special weather statement, Jul 23, 5:25 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
525 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

NDZ018-019-232315-
MERCER-DUNN-
525 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN DUNN AND
NORTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTIES...

AT 524 PM CDT /424 PM MDT/...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HALLIDAY...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF KILLDEER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCKENZIE BAY RECREATION AREA AND TWIN BUTTES.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR WESTERN LAKE SAKAKAWEA...GET OUT OF THE WATER
AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN
STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO
SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM
CDT/MIDNIGHT MDT/ FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4774 10236 4769 10226 4762 10226 4757 10220
      4758 10208 4757 10205 4735 10239 4746 10259
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 218DEG 17KT 4747 10242

HEINERT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 23, 4:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	McLean, Ward	34 min
Jul 23, 4:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Ward	60 min
Jul 23, 4:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean	53 min
Jul 23, 4:54 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	McLean, Ward	36 min
Jul 23, 5:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean, Mercer	60 min
Jul 23, 5:25 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Dunn	50 min
Jul 23, 5:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Morton, Oliver	62 min
Jul 23, 5:33 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	McLean, Ward	27 min
Jul 23, 5:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McHenry, McLean, Ward	64 min
Jul 23, 6:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean, Mercer	53 min
Jul 23, 6:55 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	McHenry, McLean, Mercer, Ward	3 hr

Nearby

Tornado Warnings in North Dakota, 2015 Every tornado warning in 2015 Tornadoes in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.