Alert archive / North Dakota / Tornado Watches in 2015
Tornado Watch 365
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jun 27, 2015, 2:42 PM CDT for 18 counties in Minnesota; 21 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 27, 2015, 2:42 PM CDT (19:42 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 27, 2015, 10:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 3 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 39 counties
Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Cass County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Foster County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Steele County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Towner County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 28 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 30%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 80%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 60%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 90%
Warnings issued inside it
25 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 3:01 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Cavalier, Pembina | 44 min |
| Jun 27, 3:34 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Cavalier, Pembina, Walsh | 41 min |
| Jun 27, 4:12 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Cavalier, Grand Forks, Nelson, Pembina, Walsh | 48 min |
| Jun 27, 4:23 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Dickey, LaMoure | 52 min |
| Jun 27, 4:37 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Grand Forks, Nelson, Steele | 38 min |
| Jun 27, 4:40 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Grand Forks, Nelson | 50 min |
| Jun 27, 4:58 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Barnes, Cass, Ransom | 47 min |
| Jun 27, 5:03 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Grand Forks, Walsh | 27 min |
| Jun 27, 5:10 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Grand Forks, Steele | 50 min |
| Jun 27, 5:27 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Grand Forks | 48 min |
| Jun 27, 5:39 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Grand Forks, Steele, Traill | 51 min |
| Jun 27, 5:42 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Barnes, Cass, Ransom | 48 min |
| Jun 27, 6:04 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Marshall, Polk | 41 min |
| Jun 27, 6:14 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Barnes, Cass, Steele, Traill | 46 min |
| Jun 27, 6:26 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Traill | 34 min |
| Jun 27, 6:30 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Ransom, Richland, Sargent | 45 min |
| Jun 27, 6:55 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Cass, Ransom, Richland | 35 min |
| Jun 27, 6:59 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Cass, Traill | 12 min |
| Jun 27, 7:18 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Richland | 42 min |
| Jun 27, 7:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Clay, Wilkin | 30 min |
| Jun 27, 7:38 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Richland | 52 min |
| Jun 27, 7:52 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Richland | 17 min |
| Jun 27, 8:08 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Clay, Otter Tail, Wilkin | 52 min |
| Jun 27, 8:26 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Richland | 49 min |
| Jun 27, 9:08 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Grant, Otter Tail | 52 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 275 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 17 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -293 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1820 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 101 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 190 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
393
WWUS20 KWNS 271940
SEL5
SPC WW 271940
MNZ000-NDZ000-280300-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 365
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MINNESOTA
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER PARTS OF
MANITOBA/ND/MN AND TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREAT. THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
HALLOCK MINNESOTA TO 70 MILES SOUTH OF FARGO NORTH DAKOTA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 364...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32030.
...HARTSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2:01 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Becker, Clay, Clearwater, Kittson, Lake of the Woods, Mahnomen and 7 more | 119 min |
| Jun 27, 4:45 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Big Stone, Chippewa, Grant, Lac qui Parle, Lincoln, Lyon and 5 more | 90 min |
| Jun 27, 5:11 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Big Stone, Chippewa, Douglas, Lac qui Parle, Pope, Stevens and 3 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 27, 5:54 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Becker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Douglas, Grant and 14 more | 66 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in North Dakota, 2015Tornado Watches in Minnesota, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.