Alert archive / North Dakota / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 365

June 27, 201518 counties in Minnesota; 21 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jun 27, 2015, 2:42 PM CDT for 18 counties in Minnesota; 21 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 27, 2015, 2:42 PM CDT (19:42 UTC)
Expired
Jun 27, 2015, 10:00 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
3 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 39 counties

Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Cass County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Foster County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Steele County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Towner County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 28 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
80%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
60%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

25 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 27, 3:01 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFCavalier, Pembina44 min
Jun 27, 3:34 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFCavalier, Pembina, Walsh41 min
Jun 27, 4:12 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedFGFCavalier, Grand Forks, Nelson, Pembina, Walsh48 min
Jun 27, 4:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISDickey, LaMoure52 min
Jun 27, 4:37 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFGrand Forks, Nelson, Steele38 min
Jun 27, 4:40 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFGrand Forks, Nelson50 min
Jun 27, 4:58 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFBarnes, Cass, Ransom47 min
Jun 27, 5:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFGrand Forks, Walsh27 min
Jun 27, 5:10 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFGrand Forks, Steele50 min
Jun 27, 5:27 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFGrand Forks48 min
Jun 27, 5:39 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFGrand Forks, Steele, Traill51 min
Jun 27, 5:42 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFBarnes, Cass, Ransom48 min
Jun 27, 6:04 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFMarshall, Polk41 min
Jun 27, 6:14 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFBarnes, Cass, Steele, Traill46 min
Jun 27, 6:26 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFTraill34 min
Jun 27, 6:30 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFRansom, Richland, Sargent45 min
Jun 27, 6:55 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFCass, Ransom, Richland35 min
Jun 27, 6:59 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFCass, Traill12 min
Jun 27, 7:18 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFRichland42 min
Jun 27, 7:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFClay, Wilkin30 min
Jun 27, 7:38 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFRichland52 min
Jun 27, 7:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFRichland17 min
Jun 27, 8:08 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFClay, Otter Tail, Wilkin52 min
Jun 27, 8:26 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFRichland49 min
Jun 27, 9:08 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFGrant, Otter Tail52 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 275 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2015-06-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 17 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2015-06-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 101 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
17 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-293 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1820 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
101 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
190 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

393 
WWUS20 KWNS 271940
SEL5  
SPC WW 271940
MNZ000-NDZ000-280300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 365
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  WESTERN MINNESOTA
  EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
  1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
    INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER PARTS OF
MANITOBA/ND/MN AND TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREAT.  THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
HALLOCK MINNESOTA TO 70 MILES SOUTH OF FARGO NORTH DAKOTA.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 364...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 32030.


...HART

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 27, 2:01 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBecker, Clay, Clearwater, Kittson, Lake of the Woods, Mahnomen and 7 more119 min
Jun 27, 4:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Stone, Chippewa, Grant, Lac qui Parle, Lincoln, Lyon and 5 more90 min
Jun 27, 5:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBig Stone, Chippewa, Douglas, Lac qui Parle, Pope, Stevens and 3 more7 hr
Jun 27, 5:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBecker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Douglas, Grant and 14 more66 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in North Dakota, 2015Tornado Watches in Minnesota, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.