Alert archive / North Dakota / Tornado Warnings in 2015

Tornado Warning 26, NWS Grand Forks, ND

June 27, 2015Traill County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this tornado warning at Jun 27, 2015, 6:26 PM CDT for Traill County, North Dakota. It was in force for 34 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 27, 2015, 6:26 PM CDT (23:26 UTC)
Expired: Jun 27, 2015, 7:00 PM CDT
In force: 34 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Radar indicated
Hail: 0.0 in

County Traill County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 15 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 27, 6:29 PM CDT	FUNNEL CLOUD	2 N Mayville, ND	PERSISTEANT WALL CLOUD WITH FUNNEL NEAR MAYVILLE

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this tornado warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 27, 2:42 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 274 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 17 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -293 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1820 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 101 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 190 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

407 
WFUS53 KFGF 272326
TORFGF
NDC097-280000-
/O.NEW.KFGF.TO.W.0026.150627T2326Z-150628T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
626 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  TRAILL COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT
    
* AT 626 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MAYVILLE...OR 26 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND
  FORKS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE 
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY. 

  THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MAYVILLE AND PORTLAND AROUND 635 PM CDT.
  ROSEVILLE AROUND 640 PM CDT.
  CUMMINGS AROUND 645 PM CDT.
  HILLSBORO...BLANCHARD AND KELSO AROUND 700 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
GRAND FORKS.

&&

LAT...LON 4725 9737 4767 9742 4767 9699 4724 9688
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 336DEG 24KT 4757 9730 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

JK

1 follow-up statement

484 
WWUS53 KFGF 272350
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
650 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NDC097-280000-
/O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-150628T0000Z/
TRAILL ND-
650 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR TRAILL
COUNTY...
    
AT 650 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR CUMMINGS...OR 30 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND FORKS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS 
         LIKELY. 

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CUMMINGS AROUND 655 PM CDT.
  HILLSBORO AND BLANCHARD AROUND 700 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER IS SPOTTED...REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
WHO WILL SEND YOUR REPORT. THIS ACT MAY SAVE LIVES OF OTHERS IN THE
PATH OF DANGEROUS WEATHER.

&&

LAT...LON 4725 9737 4762 9732 4767 9701 4724 9688
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 330DEG 17KT 4749 9719 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

JK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this tornado warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this tornado warning went out at Jun 27, 2:57 PM CDT, 3 hours 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 27, 2:57 PM CDT, 3 hours 29 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
257 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL AND THE
DETAILS ARE TOUGH TO TIME WITH ANY CONVECTIVE EVENT...BUT THE HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE AS USUAL.

FOR REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 4 PM IN NORTHEAST ND THEN SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR/INSTABILITY
COMBINATION...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE
FA UNTIL 10 PM. MOST STORMS SHOULD ROTATE FAIRLY EASILY AND IF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED...THEN THE
TORNADIC THREAT WILL INCREASE. STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
AREAS TOWARDS 6Z AS THEY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH SUNSET.

ON SUNDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY BUT
STILL WARM IN THE LOW 80S FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

FOR MON...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND
PERHAPS UPPER 80S.

ON TUE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE WEST. INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH FAIRLY STABLE AIR
IN PLACE...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED SHOWERS.

RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. PATTERN RETROGRADES A BIT AND DE AMPLIFIES A BIT BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT WAS STILL SPLIT WITH STREAMS MERGING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM, THE GFS WAS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM, THE ECMWF WAS
FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF WAS BRINGING AN UPPER LOW INTO WESTERN
CANADA AFTER WED. CURRENT TREND SHOWS THE ECMWF BACKING OFF MOVING
TROUGH INTO CANADA. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND GFS.

HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREES FOR WED...DECREASE A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR THU...LITTLE CHANGE FRI AND FOUR OR FIVE DEGREES
HIGHER FOR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST WAS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO SOUTHERN MAN. A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WAS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES AND A
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY WAS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN ZONES. CIGS WERE
MOSTLY ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FT. SOME CUMULUS WAS AROUND THE BJI
AREA...WOULD EXPECT CIGS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 THOUSAND FT. EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONCURRENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH STORMS. SOUTH WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 27, 11:35 AM CDT, 6 hours 51 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1135 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-281645-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
1135 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEAST DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AREA
OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR STRONGEST STORMS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES IS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RED RIVER
VALLEY...INCLUDING GRAND FORKS AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
HAIL...POSSIBLY LARGER THAN 2 INCHES...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
ALSO THREATS. COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
WILL GIVE PERIODIC SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. BUT AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 27, 6:11 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
611 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     8 WNW GRAND FORKS AFB   48.01N 97.54W
06/27/2015                   GRAND FORKS        ND   OTHER FEDERAL

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED WEST NORTHWEST OF GFAFB.

&&

JHOPPES

Local storm report, Jun 27, 6:12 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
612 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     TORNADO          5 NE HATTON             47.69N 97.38W
06/27/2015                   GRAND FORKS        ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DEBRIS INDICATED ON RADAR. SPOTTER REPORTS FUNNEL AS
            VIEWED FROM HATTON... BUT CANT SEE THE GROUND AREA.

&&

JHOPPES

Local storm report, Jun 27, 6:19 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
619 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     10 ESE HOPE             47.27N 97.52W
06/27/2015                   STEELE             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JHOPPES

Local storm report, Jun 27, 6:21 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
621 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             4 N HOLMES              47.77N 97.30W
06/27/2015  E1.00 INCH       GRAND FORKS        ND   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL CURRENTLY FALLING AT INTERSECTION OF
            COUNTY ROAD 15 AND 13 IN GRAND FORKS COUNTY.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jun 27, 6:23 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
623 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     20 NNW CASSELTON        47.17N 97.37W
06/27/2015                   CASS               ND   911 CALL CENTER

            ROPE TORNADO VIEWED FROM I-94.

&&

JHOPPES

Local storm report, Jun 27, 6:26 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
626 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     HAIL             GRAND FORKS AFB         47.96N 97.38W
06/27/2015  M1.75 INCH       GRAND FORKS        ND   OTHER FEDERAL

&&

KNUTSVIG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 27, 3:01 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Cavalier, Pembina	44 min
Jun 27, 3:34 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Cavalier, Pembina, Walsh	41 min
Jun 27, 4:12 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	FGF	Cavalier, Grand Forks, Nelson, Pembina, Walsh	48 min
Jun 27, 4:37 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Nelson, Steele	38 min
Jun 27, 4:40 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Nelson	50 min
Jun 27, 4:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Barnes, Cass, Ransom	47 min
Jun 27, 5:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Walsh	27 min
Jun 27, 5:10 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Steele	50 min
Jun 27, 5:27 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grand Forks	48 min
Jun 27, 5:39 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Steele, Traill	51 min
Jun 27, 5:42 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Barnes, Cass, Ransom	48 min
Jun 27, 6:14 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Barnes, Cass, Steele, Traill	46 min
Jun 27, 6:30 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Ransom, Richland, Sargent	45 min
Jun 27, 6:55 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Cass, Ransom, Richland	35 min
Jun 27, 6:59 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Cass, Traill	12 min

Nearby

Tornado Warnings in North Dakota, 2015 Every tornado warning in 2015 Tornadoes in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.