Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Grand Forks, ND

June 27, 2015Cass County, Richland County, North Dakota; Clay County, Wilkin County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 27, 2015, 7:30 PM CDT for Cass County, Richland County, North Dakota; Clay County, Wilkin County, Minnesota. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 27, 2015, 7:30 PM CDT (00:30 UTC)
Expired: Jun 27, 2015, 8:00 PM CDT
In force: 30 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 50.0 mph

Counties Clay County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Cass County, ND, Richland County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 27, 2:42 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 218 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 30 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -221 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2157 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 175 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 351 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

149 
WUUS53 KFGF 280030
SVRFGF
MNC027-167-NDC017-077-280115-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0033.150628T0030Z-150628T0115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
730 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN WILKIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
  SOUTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
  NORTHERN RICHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 730 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BARNESVILLE TO NEAR LEONARD...
  MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  COLFAX AROUND 745 PM CDT.
  GALCHUTT AROUND 750 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4660 9728 4663 9728 4663 9730 4666 9732
      4672 9698 4674 9678 4672 9673 4664 9649
      4631 9629 4631 9709
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 323DEG 55KT 4660 9656 4662 9717 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$
DK

2 follow-up statements

438 
WWUS53 KFGF 280046
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
746 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MNC027-NDC017-280055-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-150628T0115Z/
CLAY MN-CASS ND-
746 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CLAY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CASS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4655 9698 4663 9707 4662 9693 4663 9670
      4663 9650 4631 9629 4631 9673 4639 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 323DEG 55KT 4644 9639 4646 9699 

$$

MNC167-NDC077-280115-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-150628T0115Z/
WILKIN MN-RICHLAND ND-
746 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WILKIN AND NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND COUNTIES...

AT 745 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR ROTHSAY TO NEAR COLFAX...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 65
MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHERN WILKIN AND NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4655 9698 4663 9707 4662 9693 4663 9670
      4663 9650 4631 9629 4631 9673 4639 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 323DEG 55KT 4644 9639 4646 9699 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

DK

087 
WWUS53 KFGF 280100
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
800 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MNC167-NDC077-280110-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-150628T0115Z/
WILKIN MN-RICHLAND ND-
800 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN WILKIN AND
NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4655 9698 4663 9707 4662 9693 4663 9670
      4663 9650 4631 9629 4631 9673 4639 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 323DEG 55KT 4600 9592 4603 9652 

$$

DK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 27, 2:57 PM CDT, 4 hours 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 27, 2:57 PM CDT, 4 hours 33 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
257 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL AND THE
DETAILS ARE TOUGH TO TIME WITH ANY CONVECTIVE EVENT...BUT THE HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE AS USUAL.

FOR REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 4 PM IN NORTHEAST ND THEN SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR/INSTABILITY
COMBINATION...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE
FA UNTIL 10 PM. MOST STORMS SHOULD ROTATE FAIRLY EASILY AND IF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED...THEN THE
TORNADIC THREAT WILL INCREASE. STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
AREAS TOWARDS 6Z AS THEY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH SUNSET.

ON SUNDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY BUT
STILL WARM IN THE LOW 80S FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

FOR MON...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND
PERHAPS UPPER 80S.

ON TUE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE WEST. INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH FAIRLY STABLE AIR
IN PLACE...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED SHOWERS.

RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. PATTERN RETROGRADES A BIT AND DE AMPLIFIES A BIT BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT WAS STILL SPLIT WITH STREAMS MERGING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM, THE GFS WAS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM, THE ECMWF WAS
FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF WAS BRINGING AN UPPER LOW INTO WESTERN
CANADA AFTER WED. CURRENT TREND SHOWS THE ECMWF BACKING OFF MOVING
TROUGH INTO CANADA. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND GFS.

HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREES FOR WED...DECREASE A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR THU...LITTLE CHANGE FRI AND FOUR OR FIVE DEGREES
HIGHER FOR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST WAS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO SOUTHERN MAN. A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WAS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES AND A
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY WAS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN ZONES. CIGS WERE
MOSTLY ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FT. SOME CUMULUS WAS AROUND THE BJI
AREA...WOULD EXPECT CIGS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 THOUSAND FT. EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONCURRENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH STORMS. SOUTH WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 27, 11:35 AM CDT, 7 hours 55 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1135 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-281645-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
1135 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEAST DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AREA
OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR STRONGEST STORMS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES IS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RED RIVER
VALLEY...INCLUDING GRAND FORKS AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
HAIL...POSSIBLY LARGER THAN 2 INCHES...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
ALSO THREATS. COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
WILL GIVE PERIODIC SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. BUT AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 27, 6:31 PM CDT, 59 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
631 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     HAIL             MCLEOD                  46.39N 97.30W
06/27/2015  E1.75 INCH       RANSOM             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY MULTIPLE
            SPOTTERS IN MCLEOD.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jun 27, 6:48 PM CDT, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
648 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     HAIL             2 S MARCH               48.17N 96.90W
06/27/2015  E1.75 INCH       POLK               MN   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

KNUTSVIG

Local storm report, Jun 27, 6:53 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
653 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             2 NE EUCLID             47.99N 96.61W
06/27/2015  E1.00 INCH       POLK               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jun 27, 7:02 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
702 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             2 SW WHEATLAND          46.89N 97.37W
06/27/2015  E1.75 INCH       CASS               ND   PUBLIC

&&

KNUTSVIG

Local storm report, Jun 27, 7:05 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
705 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     HAIL             WALHALLA                48.92N 97.92W
06/27/2015  E1.00 INCH       PEMBINA            ND   PUBLIC

&&

KNUTSVIG

Local storm report, Jun 27, 7:25 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
725 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             1 N GOLDEN LAKE         47.59N 97.64W
06/27/2015  M3.00 INCH       STEELE             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS NORTHWEST SIDE OF GOLDEN LAKE.
            ALSO SOME 2 INCH BRANCHES BROKEN DOWN.

&&

JHOPPES

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 27, 7:18 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Richland	42 min
Jun 27, 7:38 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Richland	52 min
Jun 27, 7:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Richland	17 min
Jun 27, 8:26 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Richland	49 min
Jun 27, 8:08 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Clay, Otter Tail, Wilkin	52 min
Jun 27, 8:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Otter Tail	62 min
Jun 27, 9:08 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grant, Otter Tail	52 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2015 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.