Wind Advisory 1, NWS Grand Forks, ND

256 
WWUS73 KFGF 171900
NPWFGF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015


NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054-172000-
/O.CAN.KFGF.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-150118T0000Z/
TOWNER-CAVALIER-BENSON-RAMSEY-EDDY-NELSON-GRIGGS-BARNES-RANSOM-
SARGENT-WESTERN WALSH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CANDO...LANGDON...MADDOCK...LEEDS...
DEVILS LAKE...NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...COOPERSTOWN...VALLEY CITY...
LISBON...GWINNER...ADAMS
100 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS CANCELED THE
WIND ADVISORY. 

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
336 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

MIXED PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THE PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH
WINDS A SECONDARY ISSUE.

BAND OF FREEZING RAIN IS STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...BUT SOME LOWER VIS REMAIN SO SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE/MIST MAY BE CONTINUING A BIT LONGER. THUS...WILL HOLD
ONTO FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN EDGE EVEN THOUGH THE
MEASURABLE PRECIP HAS ENDED THERE. THINK THAT ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES IN AND WEST WINDS START BRINGING IN SOME WARMER TEMPS THEN
WILL START REMOVING COUNTIES FROM THE ADVISORY. LOCATIONS IN WEST
CENTRAL MN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME FZRA THREAT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK BETWEEN THIS MORNINGS FREEZING RAIN
IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH AND THE PRECIP
CURRENTLY IN NORTHWESTERN ND NEAR THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES OUT OF THE CWA...BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND IN FACT THERE HAS BEEN SOME WARMING WITH THE WEST WINDS. IT
DOES SEEM THAT TEMPS ALOFT WILL COOL AND PRECIP TYPE IN THE SECOND
WAVE WILL BE SNOW OR EVEN RAIN AS TEMPS GET CLOSE TO THE FREEZING
MARK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MANY
SPOTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S.

WINDS ACROSS WESTERN ND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH HAVE
BECOME QUITE STRONG EVEN WITHOUT DAYTIME MIXING...AND THE WINDS
SHOULD START TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY MORNING. THINK
THAT THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL MIX BETTER
THAN IN THE VALLEY...SO WILL JUST GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN OUR
WEST FOR NOW.

TONIGHT...PRECIP LINGERING OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL END
AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. WEST WINDS WILL KEEP US MIXED
AND FAIRLY MILD AIR OVER THE REGION...SO LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL HIGHS. THE MILD PATTERN CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION COMING BACK IN AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN MT. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL STAY TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT
INTO THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON
BRINGING THE SFC LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH WARM FRONTAL
PRECIP INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND WRAP AROUND
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MIXED PRECIP COULD AGAIN BE AN ISSUE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR
NOW JUST INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINK
THAT PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER OUR NORTH AND
EAST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A
MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...WITH A SHORTWAVE OR TWO MOVING THROUGH NW
FLOW CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW.
STILL LOOKING FOR 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD DOWN WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH 515-520 THICKNESSES AND MODEST 850MB
TEMPS OF MINUS 10 TO 15 EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEAR AVERAGE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/TROUGH AT END OF PERIOD SHOULD ACT
TO BOOST TEMPS BUT BRING IN THREAT FOR MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

IFR CIG AND VISIBILITIES WERE LOCATED A CROSS FAR EASTERN ND AND INTO
NORTHWEST MN. VFR CONDITION WERE OVER CENTRAL AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
EASTERN ND. MVFR CONDITIONS WERE OVER FAR NORTHERN MN. EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...SO CIGS WILL RISE IN THE WESTERN
ZONES AND FALL IN THE EASTERN/NORTHEAST ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SNOW MOVING IN
LATER TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ027-
     030-039-049-052-053.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ001>003-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/WJB
AVIATION...HOPPES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
559 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-171200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
559 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND COULD
CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS.

MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT...WITH A MIX
OF SNOW...SLEET...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. SLICK SPOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON ROADS AS THE MIXED PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MIXED PRECIPITIATON WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. SOME PATCHY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO OVER 2 INCHES...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ON SATURDAY...BUT BLOWING SNOW
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND A
LACK OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.