Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405

July 12, 201518 counties in Minnesota; 17 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 12, 2015, 3:06 PM CDT for 18 counties in Minnesota; 17 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 12, 2015, 3:06 PM CDT (20:06 UTC)
Expired: Jul 12, 2015, 10:00 PM CDT
In force: 7 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 3 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 35 counties

Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Kittson County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Roseau County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Benson County, ND, Cass County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Grand Forks County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Pembina County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Steele County, ND, Towner County, ND, Traill County, ND, Walsh County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 36 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 2%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 60%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 40%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 80%

Warnings issued inside it

26 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 12, 3:37 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Steele, Traill	38 min
Jul 12, 3:53 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Clay, Otter Tail, Wilkin	52 min
Jul 12, 3:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Nelson, Ramsey, Walsh	65 min
Jul 12, 3:57 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Traill	38 min
Jul 12, 4:03 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Polk	42 min
Jul 12, 4:14 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Nelson, Walsh	46 min
Jul 12, 4:21 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Becker, Clay, Otter Tail, Wilkin	39 min
Jul 12, 4:36 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Otter Tail, Wilkin	39 min
Jul 12, 4:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson, Marshall	59 min
Jul 12, 4:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Marshall, Polk	43 min
Jul 12, 5:04 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Kittson, Marshall	41 min
Jul 12, 5:07 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grant, Otter Tail, Wilkin	38 min
Jul 12, 5:18 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Becker, Otter Tail, Wadena, Wilkin	42 min
Jul 12, 5:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Walsh	34 min
Jul 12, 5:37 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	FGF	Grant, Otter Tail, Wilkin	38 min
Jul 12, 5:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson, Marshall, Pennington, Roseau	62 min
Jul 12, 5:49 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Otter Tail, Wadena	41 min
Jul 12, 6:15 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grant, Otter Tail	45 min
Jul 12, 6:23 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Clay, Wilkin	52 min
Jul 12, 6:25 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Otter Tail, Wadena	50 min
Jul 12, 6:56 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grant	49 min
Jul 12, 7:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Clearwater, Marshall, Pennington, Polk, Red Lake	32 min
Jul 12, 8:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Ramsey	55 min
Jul 12, 8:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Eddy	60 min
Jul 12, 9:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Ramsey	45 min
Jul 12, 9:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Ramsey	34 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 285 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 571 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -317 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2431 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 100 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 120 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 12, 10:05 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aitkin, Carlton, Cass, Itasca, Kanabec, Koochiching and 3 more	85 min
Jul 12, 2:54 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Becker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Douglas, Grant and 15 more	96 min
Jul 12, 3:53 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Big Stone, Brown, Chippewa, Cottonwood, Jackson, Lac qui Parle and 13 more	82 min
Jul 12, 5:28 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Aitkin, Anoka, Benton, Big Stone, Blue Earth, Brown and 54 more	5 hr
Jul 12, 5:53 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Becker, Beltrami, Clay, Clearwater, Douglas, Grant and 13 more	97 min
Jul 11, 9:04 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barnes, Benson, Bottineau, Burke, Burleigh, Cass and 33 more	86 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Minnesota, 2015 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Dakota, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.