Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 12, 20156 counties in Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 12, 2015, 7:13 PM CDT for 6 counties in Minnesota. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 12, 2015, 7:13 PM CDT (00:13 UTC)
Expired: Jul 12, 2015, 7:45 PM CDT
In force: 32 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.5 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Beltrami County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Marshall County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 12, 3:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 227 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2205 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -97 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 715 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 142 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 184 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.7
Supercell composite: 3.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

147 
WUUS53 KFGF 130013
SVRFGF
MNC007-029-089-113-119-125-130115-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0062.150713T0013Z-150713T0115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
713 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN BELTRAMI COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  RED LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
  SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
  NORTHWESTERN CLEARWATER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
  CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
  PENNINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 713 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR MAVIE TO HUOT TO NEAR GENTILLY TO NEAR HAROLD
  TO NEAR CLIMAX...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
           WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MAVIE AND WYLIE AROUND 720 PM CDT.
  RED LAKE FALLS AROUND 725 PM CDT.
  GOODRIDGE AND PERAULT AROUND 730 PM CDT.
  MARCOUX AROUND 735 PM CDT.
  ESPELIE...MELVIN AND HAZEL AROUND 740 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4780 9571 4764 9622 4756 9662 4764 9682
      4779 9680 4803 9657 4825 9615 4835 9499
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 257DEG 30KT 4819 9604 4786 9641 4777 9652 4772
9657 4761 9671

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DK

1 follow-up statement

822 
WWUS53 KFGF 130045
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
745 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

MNC007-029-089-113-119-125-130054-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-150713T0115Z/
BELTRAMI MN-RED LAKE MN-MARSHALL MN-CLEARWATER MN-POLK MN-
PENNINGTON MN-
745 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BELTRAMI...RED
LAKE...SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL...NORTHWESTERN CLEARWATER...CENTRAL POLK
AND PENNINGTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.

LAT...LON 4780 9571 4764 9622 4756 9662 4764 9682
      4779 9680 4803 9657 4825 9615 4835 9499
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 257DEG 30KT 4830 9535 4797 9572 4788 9583 4783
9588 4772 9602

$$

DTR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 12, 6:58 PM CDT, 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 6:58 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
658 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

LOWERED POPS ACROSS A GOOD PART OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND TRIED
TO FINE TUNE POPS ACROSS WESTERN MN TO REFLECT CURRENT CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

SHORT TERM CAM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 2
MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. THE FIRST INITIATES VCNTY
DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OVER THE SE FA THEN
PROPAGATING E-SE THROUGH THE EVENING. CAP HOLDING SO FAR BUT
SUFFICE TO SAY ALL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN PLACE FOR POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENT. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EXITING THE FA BY SUNSET.

REMNANTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
THROUGH THE FA TOMORROW SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS HOWEVER AIRMASS NOT
NEARLY AS UNSTABLE. EXCEPT FOR THE SW FA TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AT SUNSET. WITH DEWPOINTS
CONTINUING IN THE 60S EXPECT SIMILAR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO MIDWEEK. RIPPLES OF ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN FRONT OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR TSRA TO
THE REGION WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THUS WENT
WITH A BLENDED SOLN ATTM. LOOKING FOR A BIT OF A CHANGE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS AND
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW MORE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW...TRIGGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

CAUTIOUSLY LEFT T MENTION OUT OF DVL/GFK/FAR AS MOST CONVECTION
SHIFTING INTO MN. WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SEE WEAKENING
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE PRIMARILY LOOKING AT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 12, 6:32 AM CDT, 12 hours 41 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-131145-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
632 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AN ENHANCED RISK EXTENDING INTO FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA.

STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
THE MORNING ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY HAVE A LIGHTNING
THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS PULSING UP TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THERE WILL BE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN
FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NEAR THE
CENTER OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND A WARM FRONT. WITH A VERY HIGHLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL RAPIDLY BECOME
SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP...THE HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL BRING HIGH HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS
FROM SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB TO JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. THE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PROLONGED...BUT THOSE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD
DRINK WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH MULTIPLE WEAK SYSTEMS
BRINGING ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK.
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT LIGHTENING WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY STORM. EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE STORMS IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

JR

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 12, 6:38 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
638 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     ELIZABETH               46.38N 96.13W
07/12/2015                   OTTER TAIL         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POSSIBLE TOUCHDOWN NEAR ELIZABETH.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 12, 6:39 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
639 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 SE ELBOW LAKE         45.97N 95.95W
07/12/2015                   GRANT              MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PERSISTENT WALL CLOUD WITH POSSIBLE FUNNEL.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 12, 6:40 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 SE ELBOW LAKE         45.97N 95.95W
07/12/2015                   GRANT              MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PERSISTENT WALL CLOUD WITH POSSIBLE FUNNEL.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 12, 6:45 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
645 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 N VERNDALE            46.41N 95.01W
07/12/2015                   WADENA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PERSISTENT WALL CLOUD WITH BRIEF FUNNEL.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 12, 6:53 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
653 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     HAIL             6 NNW FOXHOME           46.36N 96.36W
07/12/2015  E1.00 INCH       WILKIN             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 12, 7:00 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
700 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 N CHRISTINE           46.62N 96.81W
07/12/2015                   RICHLAND           ND   911 CALL CENTER

            VIEWED FROM COMSTOCK MN.

&&

GGUST

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 12, 10:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grant, Otter Tail	55 min
Jul 13, 1:43 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Otter Tail	62 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.