Alert archive / Minnesota / Tornado Warnings in 2015

Tornado Warning 51, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 12, 2015Grant County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this tornado warning at Jul 12, 2015, 6:56 PM CDT for Grant County, Minnesota. It was in force for 49 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 12, 2015, 6:56 PM CDT (23:56 UTC)
Expired: Jul 12, 2015, 7:45 PM CDT
In force: 49 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Radar indicated
Hail: 1.25 in

County Grant County, MN

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 198 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this tornado warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 12, 3:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 220 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1730 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -145 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 756 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 21 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 60 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

661 
WFUS53 KFGF 122356
TORFGF
MNC051-130045-
/O.NEW.KFGF.TO.W.0051.150712T2356Z-150713T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
656 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  GRANT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT
    
* AT 656 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR EVANSVILLE...OR 16 MILES WEST OF
  ALEXANDRIA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND VEHICLES. 

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
  GRANT COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
GRAND FORKS.

&&

LAT...LON 4604 9624 4607 9577 4593 9577 4593 9576
      4576 9576 4576 9620
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 268DEG 24KT 4595 9570 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.25IN

$$
SPEICHER

2 follow-up statements

491 
WWUS53 KFGF 130021
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
721 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

MNC051-130045-
/O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0051.000000T0000Z-150713T0045Z/
GRANT MN-
721 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
GRANT COUNTY...
    
AT 721 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER ERDAHL...OR 22 MILES WEST OF ALEXANDRIA...AND IS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND VEHICLES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELBOW LAKE...HOFFMAN...BARRETT AND ERDAHL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER IS SPOTTED...REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
WHO WILL SEND YOUR REPORT. THIS ACT MAY SAVE LIVES OF OTHERS IN THE
PATH OF DANGEROUS WEATHER.

&&

LAT...LON 4607 9577 4593 9577 4593 9576 4576 9576
      4576 9592 4605 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 268DEG 24KT 4596 9584 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.25IN

$$
SPEICHER

515 
WWUS53 KFGF 130035
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
735 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

MNC051-130045-
/O.EXP.KFGF.TO.W.0051.000000T0000Z-150713T0045Z/
GRANT MN-
735 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EASTERN GRANT COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 745 PM
CDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

LAT...LON 4607 9577 4593 9577 4593 9576 4576 9576
      4576 9592 4605 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 268DEG 24KT 4596 9584 

$$

SPEICHER

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this tornado warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this tornado warning went out at Jul 12, 2:33 PM CDT, 4 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 2:33 PM CDT, 4 hours 23 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
233 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

SHORT TERM CAM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 2
MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. THE FIRST INITIATES VCNTY
DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OVER THE SE FA THEN
PROPAGATING E-SE THROUGH THE EVENING. CAP HOLDING SO FAR BUT
SUFFICE TO SAY ALL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN PLACE FOR POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENT. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EXITING THE FA BY SUNSET.

REMNANTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
THROUGH THE FA TOMORROW SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS HOWEVER AIRMASS NOT
NEARLY AS UNSTABLE. EXCEPT FOR THE SW FA TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AT SUNSET. WITH DEWPOINTS
CONTINUING IN THE 60S EXPECT SIMILAR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO MIDWEEK. RIPPLES OF ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN FRONT OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR TSRA TO
THE REGION WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THUS WENT
WITH A BLENDED SOLN ATTM. LOOKING FOR A BIT OF A CHANGE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS AND
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW MORE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW...TRIGGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER.
EXPECT CIGS AT ALL SITES TO BE VFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
SFC HEATING...BUT LOOK FOR CLOUD BASES TO BE AROUND 4-6 KFT AS SFC
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...RESULTING IN ABUNDANT LL
MOISTURE FOR LOW BASED CU DEVELOPMENT. MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS WILL
BE GENERALLY IN THE 21Z-02Z TIME FRAME AS BEST DYNAMICS COME
TOGETHER FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AT THAT TIME. WITH A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS OVER LAKES COUNTRY OF MN...AND AN ENHANCED RISK ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FA...AT A MINIMUM BROUGHT IN VCTS DURING THE PERIOD
MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR CONTINUED SRLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...WITH
ERRATIC WINDS AND LLWS INVOF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPKINS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 12, 6:32 AM CDT, 12 hours 24 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-131145-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
632 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AN ENHANCED RISK EXTENDING INTO FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA.

STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
THE MORNING ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY HAVE A LIGHTNING
THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS PULSING UP TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THERE WILL BE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN
FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NEAR THE
CENTER OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND A WARM FRONT. WITH A VERY HIGHLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL RAPIDLY BECOME
SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP...THE HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL BRING HIGH HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS
FROM SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB TO JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. THE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PROLONGED...BUT THOSE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD
DRINK WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH MULTIPLE WEAK SYSTEMS
BRINGING ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK.
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT LIGHTENING WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY STORM. EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE STORMS IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

JR

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 12, 6:30 PM CDT, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     DEER CREEK              46.39N 95.32W
07/12/2015                   OTTER TAIL         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 12, 6:38 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
638 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     ELIZABETH               46.38N 96.13W
07/12/2015                   OTTER TAIL         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POSSIBLE TOUCHDOWN NEAR ELIZABETH.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 12, 6:39 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
639 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 SE ELBOW LAKE         45.97N 95.95W
07/12/2015                   GRANT              MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PERSISTENT WALL CLOUD WITH POSSIBLE FUNNEL.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 12, 6:40 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 SE ELBOW LAKE         45.97N 95.95W
07/12/2015                   GRANT              MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PERSISTENT WALL CLOUD WITH POSSIBLE FUNNEL.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 12, 6:45 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
645 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 N VERNDALE            46.41N 95.01W
07/12/2015                   WADENA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PERSISTENT WALL CLOUD WITH BRIEF FUNNEL.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 12, 6:53 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
653 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     HAIL             6 NNW FOXHOME           46.36N 96.36W
07/12/2015  E1.00 INCH       WILKIN             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GGUST

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 12, 4:50 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Marshall, Pennington, Polk	55 min
Jul 12, 6:25 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Roseau	65 min
Jul 12, 6:48 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods	42 min
Jul 12, 7:21 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Beltrami	54 min
Jul 12, 7:28 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Lake of the Woods	32 min
Jul 12, 8:23 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Beltrami	67 min
Jul 12, 3:53 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Clay, Otter Tail, Wilkin	52 min
Jul 12, 4:03 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Polk	42 min
Jul 12, 4:21 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Becker, Clay, Otter Tail, Wilkin	39 min
Jul 12, 4:36 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Otter Tail, Wilkin	39 min
Jul 12, 4:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson, Marshall	59 min
Jul 12, 4:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Marshall, Polk	43 min
Jul 12, 5:04 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Kittson, Marshall	41 min
Jul 12, 5:07 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grant, Otter Tail, Wilkin	38 min
Jul 12, 5:18 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Becker, Otter Tail, Wadena, Wilkin	42 min
Jul 12, 5:37 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	FGF	Grant, Otter Tail, Wilkin	38 min
Jul 12, 5:40 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	FGF	Marshall	12 hr
Jul 12, 5:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson, Marshall, Pennington, Roseau	62 min
Jul 12, 5:49 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Otter Tail, Wadena	41 min
Jul 12, 6:08 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	FGF	Otter Tail	12 hr
Jul 12, 6:15 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grant, Otter Tail	45 min
Jul 12, 6:23 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Clay, Wilkin	52 min
Jul 12, 6:25 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Otter Tail, Wadena	50 min

Nearby

Tornado Warnings in Minnesota, 2015 Every tornado warning in 2015 Tornadoes in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.