Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERITY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.

THE WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW STILL OVER THE
CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER...BUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR DEVILS LAKE. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE THAT
GREAT OF HANDLE ON PRECIP LATELY...BUT SOME STILL HAVE PRECIP
CONTINUING TO POP UP IN MN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. GIVEN THE
STORMS REFUSAL TO DIE...THINK THAT THOSE MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE VALID AND THAT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION INTO MN BY DAYBREAK. A FEW CELLS ARE
STARTING TO POP UP FURTHER SOUTH BUT GIVEN THE GREATER FORCING IN
THE NORTH THINK THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FROM HIGHWAY 2 SOUTH.
WILL MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS BEFORE 08Z.

AFTER THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN SD. MODELS ALL BRING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF JUICE AND
THINK THAT CAPE VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 3000 J/KG. WITH A JET
STREAK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES POP UP TO 40-50 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...MAINLY HAIL AND WINDS BUT STORMS NEAR ANY SFC BOUNDARY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING A TORNADO. FURTHER NORTH...THE
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS EXPLOSIVE BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE STORMS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT ON
SUNDAY AND WEAKEN.

THE OTHER ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE HEAT. DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN
THE 70S...SO HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THE DAY QUITE UNPLEASANT. THE
QUESTION IS EXACTLY HOW HOT WE WILL GET AND IS A HEAT ADVISORY
WARRANTED. THE RAP AND HRRR HAVE TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO 100S...BUT THINK THIS IS WAY OVERDONE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AND NEAR 90
FURTHER NORTH IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AT THIS POINT. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 100 DEGREES IN SOME
PARTS OF THE VALLEY DOWN TOWARDS RANSOM AND SARGENT COUNTIES...BUT
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE SUSTAINED FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL HIT HARD IN THE HWO AND
MENTION IN THE WX STORY.

TOMORROW...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MUCH WEAKER AND DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE ON MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ALL THE
MODELS SHOW STORMS REDEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF RIDGE
RIDING WEAK SHORTWAVES SETTING OFF STORMS REMAINS. THE SFC PATTERN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT MUCH TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL ALLOW
A BIT OF A BREAK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALL HAVE SOME PRECIP
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE A QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY
HIGH CHANCE POPS THAT SHOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALTHOUGH LESS STICKY THAN TODAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG WAVE PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES
THIS PERIOD WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF EACH COAST AND A LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION.
HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF BECOME OUT OF PHASE NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE GFS WAS TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE ECMWF CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF. THERMAL
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER
RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON
THU.

LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS INCREASED ONE DEGREE ON THU.
LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OTHER DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

ALL SITES VFR EXCEPT KDVL...WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HAVE SOME VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION DUE TO THE STORM WHICH WILL BE DONE BY 07Z OR SO. SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD...BUT WHICH TAF SITES WILL BE IMPACTED IS DIFFICULT TO
SAY AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP ALL SITE VFR WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND WILL AMEND FOR VCTS IF NEEDED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...DK/JR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
626 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-121130-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
626 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER ALL OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA EXCEPT
LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY OR WEST OF A LINE FROM WARROAD TO
PENNINGTON TO THE STAPLES AIRPORT MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. WHILE GENERAL THUNDER CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MOST LIKELY
AFTER 4 PM CDT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONE OR
TWO TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE. ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND CREATE THE
SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM BADOURA TO FRAZEE TO NORCROSS MINNESOTA.
ELSEWHERE...THE REST OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL HAVE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
AGAIN WHILE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE DAY...THE STORMS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE SEVERE AFTER 4 PM CDT AND SHOULD END BY
MIDNIGHT. SOME TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

ALSO A HOT DAY WITH RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITIES IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES MAY RISE BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

HOPPES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1059 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     HAIL             2 E LEEDS               48.29N 99.39W
07/11/2015  E1.00 INCH       BENSON             ND   STORM CHASER

&&

DKELLENB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
241 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

NDZ015-026-120815-
NELSON ND-RAMSEY ND-
241 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RAMSEY AND NORTHERN
NELSON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

AT 241 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CRARY TO NEAR TOLNA...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  DOYON...SOUTHAM AND BARTLETT AROUND 250 AM CDT.
  LAKOTA AND MAPES AROUND 255 AM CDT.
  MICHIGAN AND BROCKET AROUND 300 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 4831 9852 4822 9829 4819 9829 4820 9823
      4808 9793 4780 9833 4790 9853 4791 9853
      4791 9855 4797 9867 4800 9867 4800 9872
      4803 9878
TIME...MOT...LOC 0741Z 221DEG 53KT 4800 9867 4789 9846

SPEICHER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
348 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

NDZ026-027-030-120945-
NELSON ND-GRAND FORKS ND-TRAILL ND-
348 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TRAILL...EAST
CENTRAL NELSON AND GRAND FORKS COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

AT 347 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MCCANNA TO 6 MILES
WEST OF LARIMORE TO LOGAN CENTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MCCANNA AROUND 355 AM CDT.
  LARIMORE AROUND 400 AM CDT.
  KEMPTON AROUND 405 AM CDT.
  NORTHWOOD...ARVILLA AND HONEYFORD AROUND 410 AM CDT.
  MEKINOCK AROUND 420 AM CDT.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4786 9804 4792 9798 4811 9792 4804 9707
      4802 9707 4799 9705 4796 9706 4794 9704
      4778 9706 4757 9720 4767 9747 4767 9749
TIME...MOT...LOC 0847Z 283DEG 29KT 4801 9776 4790 9777 4779 9783

SPEICHER