Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1040 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

ONE LARGE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES IN NW BENSON COUNTY.
OTHERWISE THAT IS THE ONLY STORM ON RADAR. WILL NOT CHANGE ANY
GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE....AND KEEP THE CURRENT WATCH THAT IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6Z FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

MAIN CHALLENGES CONCERN PCPN CHANCES/COVERAGE/SEVERE THREAT AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR
FORECAST.

MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE STORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. FEEL
BEST POTENTIAL FOR T INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AHEAD
OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY FROM NW-S CENTRAL ND WHERE MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE/MIXED LAYER CAPE CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED. MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE ACROSS S ND SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UPPER SUPPORT AS
INSTABILITY/CAPE NOT IN QUESTION. SHEAR LOOKS LIMITED AND WAVE
ALREADY THROUGH S ND SO COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED. STORMS SHOULD
PROPAGATE NE AND WITH RELATIVELY SNOW STORM MOVEMENT AND
PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES FROM 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL JET NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE SO STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

BOUNDARY ONLY MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TOMORROW SO EXPECTING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE HOT/HUMID AND DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. WITH CLOUD COVER UNCERTAINTY FOR TOMORROW
WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY FOR NOW.

STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS MN SUNDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
SHOULD CLEAR THE FA BY SUNRISE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

MON-TUESDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE FA.
TOUGH TO PIN DOWN ANY FAVORED TIME FOR CONVECTION. DOES APPEAR
THAT WEAK ENERGY MAY DROP THROUGH FRONT OF THE RIDGE AND KEPT
HIGHER CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE FA BUT OVERALL
AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE LOW.

(TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

PRE-EXTENDED PERIOD UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
FLATTEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THEN SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS ZONAL FLOW WITH THE MOST
PRONOUNCED...AT LEAST IN THE ECMWF DEPICTION...AFFECTING THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST OWING TO THIS FEATURE. TSRA ACTIVITY
COULD VERY WELL LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY
DAY COMING ON SATURDAY.

NEAR AVERAGE MID JULY TEMPERATURES TO START ON WEDNESDAY WILL LOSE A
FEW DEGREES OVER SUBSEQUENT DAYS DUE TO CLOUDS AND MORE PERSISTENT
BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT NEAR
KDVL. THERE COULD BE MORE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE
AT THIS POINT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
626 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-121130-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
626 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER ALL OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA EXCEPT
LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY OR WEST OF A LINE FROM WARROAD TO
PENNINGTON TO THE STAPLES AIRPORT MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. WHILE GENERAL THUNDER CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MOST LIKELY
AFTER 4 PM CDT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONE OR
TWO TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE. ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND CREATE THE
SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM BADOURA TO FRAZEE TO NORCROSS MINNESOTA.
ELSEWHERE...THE REST OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL HAVE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
AGAIN WHILE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE DAY...THE STORMS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE SEVERE AFTER 4 PM CDT AND SHOULD END BY
MIDNIGHT. SOME TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

ALSO A HOT DAY WITH RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITIES IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES MAY RISE BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
NEIGHBORING PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

HOPPES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
854 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

NDZ014-120300-
BENSON ND-
854 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BENSON COUNTY UNTIL
1000 PM CDT...

AT 854 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ESMOND...OR 21 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RUGBY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ESMOND AROUND 855 PM CDT.
  FILLMORE AROUND 905 PM CDT.
  BAKER AROUND 925 PM CDT.
  HARLOW AROUND 945 PM CDT.
  LEEDS AND BRINSMADE AROUND 1000 PM CDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4822 9985 4837 9967 4837 9939 4813 9921
      4797 9981 4802 9981 4802 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 240DEG 15KT 4808 9981

SPEICHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1059 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     HAIL             2 E LEEDS               48.29N 99.39W
07/11/2015  E1.00 INCH       BENSON             ND   STORM CHASER

&&

DKELLENB

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