Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 12, 2015Walsh County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 12, 2015, 5:29 PM CDT for Walsh County, North Dakota. It was in force for 34 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 12, 2015, 5:29 PM CDT (22:29 UTC)
Expired: Jul 12, 2015, 6:03 PM CDT
In force: 34 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 50.0 mph

County Walsh County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 12, 5:29 PM CDT	FUNNEL CLOUD	3 Ne Ardoch, ND
Jul 12, 5:45 PM CDT	HAIL 1.75	2 S Grafton, ND

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 16 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 12, 3:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 297 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1379 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -61 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 658 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 42 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 70 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

873 
WUUS53 KFGF 122229
SVRFGF
NDC099-122315-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0060.150712T2229Z-150712T2315Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
529 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN WALSH COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 528 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER FOREST
  RIVER...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF GRAFTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FOREST RIVER AROUND 530 PM CDT.
  VESELEYVILLE AND ARDOCH AROUND 535 PM CDT.
  VOSS AROUND 540 PM CDT.
  MINTO AROUND 545 PM CDT.
  GRAFTON AROUND 550 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4829 9716 4827 9712 4827 9714 4826 9714
      4826 9712 4819 9730 4819 9743 4822 9753
      4831 9766 4851 9748
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 220DEG 24KT 4823 9751 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

DK

1 follow-up statement

448 
WWUS53 KFGF 122303
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
603 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

NDC099-122312-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-150712T2315Z/
WALSH ND-
603 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN WALSH COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4829 9716 4827 9712 4827 9714 4826 9714
      4826 9712 4819 9730 4819 9743 4822 9753
      4831 9766 4851 9748
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 220DEG 24KT 4841 9729 

$$

DK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 12, 2:33 PM CDT, 2 hours 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 2:33 PM CDT, 2 hours 56 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
233 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

SHORT TERM CAM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 2
MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. THE FIRST INITIATES VCNTY
DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OVER THE SE FA THEN
PROPAGATING E-SE THROUGH THE EVENING. CAP HOLDING SO FAR BUT
SUFFICE TO SAY ALL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN PLACE FOR POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENT. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EXITING THE FA BY SUNSET.

REMNANTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
THROUGH THE FA TOMORROW SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS HOWEVER AIRMASS NOT
NEARLY AS UNSTABLE. EXCEPT FOR THE SW FA TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AT SUNSET. WITH DEWPOINTS
CONTINUING IN THE 60S EXPECT SIMILAR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO MIDWEEK. RIPPLES OF ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN FRONT OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR TSRA TO
THE REGION WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THUS WENT
WITH A BLENDED SOLN ATTM. LOOKING FOR A BIT OF A CHANGE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS AND
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW MORE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW...TRIGGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER.
EXPECT CIGS AT ALL SITES TO BE VFR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
SFC HEATING...BUT LOOK FOR CLOUD BASES TO BE AROUND 4-6 KFT AS SFC
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...RESULTING IN ABUNDANT LL
MOISTURE FOR LOW BASED CU DEVELOPMENT. MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS WILL
BE GENERALLY IN THE 21Z-02Z TIME FRAME AS BEST DYNAMICS COME
TOGETHER FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AT THAT TIME. WITH A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS OVER LAKES COUNTRY OF MN...AND AN ENHANCED RISK ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FA...AT A MINIMUM BROUGHT IN VCTS DURING THE PERIOD
MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR CONTINUED SRLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW...WITH
ERRATIC WINDS AND LLWS INVOF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPKINS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 12, 6:32 AM CDT, 10 hours 57 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-131145-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
632 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AN ENHANCED RISK EXTENDING INTO FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA.

STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
THE MORNING ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY HAVE A LIGHTNING
THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS PULSING UP TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THERE WILL BE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN
FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NEAR THE
CENTER OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND A WARM FRONT. WITH A VERY HIGHLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL RAPIDLY BECOME
SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP...THE HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL BRING HIGH HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS
FROM SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB TO JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. THE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PROLONGED...BUT THOSE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD
DRINK WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH MULTIPLE WEAK SYSTEMS
BRINGING ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK.
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT LIGHTENING WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY STORM. EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE STORMS IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

JR

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 12, 4:51 PM CDT, 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
451 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 NW FOXHOME            46.32N 96.37W
07/12/2015                   WILKIN             MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            PERSISTENT WALL CLOUD WITH POSSIBLE FUNNEL.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 12, 4:56 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
456 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     6 WNW GRAND FORKS       47.95N 97.19W
07/12/2015                   GRAND FORKS        ND   ASOS

            FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED PASSING OVER GRAND FORKS AIRPORT
            AREA UNTIL 437 PM CDT.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 12, 5:08 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
508 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 N DORAN               46.20N 96.49W
07/12/2015                   WILKIN             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 12, 5:10 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
510 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     TORNADO          1 SW DORAN              46.17N 96.50W
07/12/2015                   WILKIN             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER LOCATED 2SW OF DORAN VIEWS TORNADO NEAR HWY 75
            AND SOUTHWEST OF DORAN.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 12, 5:19 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
519 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     TORNADO          2 NE CAMPBELL           46.12N 96.38W
07/12/2015                   WILKIN             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 12, 5:24 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
524 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     HAIL             3 NNE CAMPBELL          46.14N 96.38W
07/12/2015  E1.75 INCH       WILKIN             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GGUST

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 11, 8:54 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Benson	66 min
Jul 11, 9:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Towner	58 min
Jul 11, 10:10 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Benson	50 min
Jul 11, 11:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Ramsey, Towner	59 min
Jul 11, 11:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Ramsey	36 min
Jul 12, 12:19 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Benson	56 min
Jul 12, 2:41 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Nelson	34 min
Jul 12, 3:48 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Grand Forks	57 min
Jul 12, 4:50 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grand Forks	55 min
Jul 12, 2:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Ramsey	46 min
Jul 12, 3:37 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Steele, Traill	38 min
Jul 12, 3:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Nelson, Ramsey, Walsh	65 min
Jul 12, 3:57 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Traill	38 min
Jul 12, 4:03 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grand Forks	42 min
Jul 12, 4:14 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Nelson, Walsh	46 min
Jul 12, 4:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Pembina, Walsh	59 min
Jul 12, 5:04 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Walsh	41 min
Jul 12, 5:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Pembina, Walsh	62 min
Jul 12, 6:23 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Cass, Richland	52 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.