Alert archive / Kentucky / Estill County
Weather alerts in Estill County, Kentucky, 2015
211 weather alerts in 2015, from the National Weather Service and the Storm Prediction Center. An alert counts here when it covered this county.
Estill County and its neighbors
Each county as a circle sized by its count in 2015. Tap one for its archive.
- Alerts
- 211
- Warnings
- 56
- Watches
- 34
- Advisories
- 68
- Busiest month
- April56 alerts
- Busiest day
- April 3, 201515 alerts
Over time
By month
Warning verification
How often warnings here had a storm report inside them, and how much warning the reports had.
0 of 3 tornado warnings covering Estill County in 2015 had a tornado report inside them.
Estill County, 2015
| Warnings | With a report | False alarm ratio | Reports | Inside a warning | Mean lead time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tornado warnings | 3 | 0 | 100% | 0 | ||
| Severe thunderstorm warnings | 14 | 11 | 21% | 11 | 27% | 24 min |
| Flash flood warnings | 10 | 8 | 20% | 10 | 90% | 83 min |
Each office's whole area, 2015
| Warnings | With a report | False alarm ratio | Reports | Inside a warning | Mean lead time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWS Jackson, KY: tornado warnings | 9 | 0 | 100% | 3 | 0% | |
| NWS Jackson, KY: severe thunderstorm warnings | 163 | 110 | 33% | 364 | 82% | 23 min |
| NWS Jackson, KY: flash flood warnings | 88 | 44 | 50% | 157 | 78% | 86 min |
An office's figures cover every county it serves, including across state lines.
Verified by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow, which matches each storm-based warning with the local storm reports inside its polygon while it was in force, within 15 km of its edge: a tornado warning counts as verified on a tornado report, a severe thunderstorm warning on hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more, or wind damage, a flash flood warning on a flash flood report. The false alarm ratio is the share of warnings with no such report; "inside a warning" is the probability of detection, the share of reports that fell inside one; lead time runs from the warning's issue to each report inside it, counting zero for a report that came first. A warning with no report is not proof nothing happened: reports come from spotters, the public and damage surveys, and are thin where few people live.
The alerts
Every alert, in the order issued. Times are local, Eastern Time. Each opens its own page with the text, the map, the radar and the sounding.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 3:39 AM EST | Wind Chill Advisory | JKL | 30 hr |
| Jan 12, 11:59 AM EST | Freezing Rain Advisory | JKL | 22 hr |
| Jan 23, 3:39 PM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | JKL | 18 hr |
| Feb 4, 3:50 PM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | JKL | 14 hr |
| Feb 10, 5:29 AM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | JKL | 5 hr |
| Feb 12, 6:00 AM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | JKL | 17 hr |
| Feb 14, 11:15 AM EST | Wind Advisory | JKL | 8 hr |
| Feb 15, 4:59 AM EST | Winter Storm Warning | JKL | 46 hr |
| Feb 16, 3:57 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 6 hr |
| Feb 16, 9:51 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 6 hr |
| Feb 17, 11:09 AM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | JKL | 38 hr |
| Feb 18, 4:15 AM EST | Wind Chill Advisory | JKL | 52 hr |
| Feb 18, 11:12 AM EST | Winter Storm Warning | JKL | 4 hr |
| Feb 18, 3:41 PM EST | Wind Chill Warning | JKL | 19 hr |
| Feb 19, 12:30 PM EST | Winter Storm Watch | JKL | 16 hr |
| Feb 20, 4:43 AM EST | Winter Storm Warning | JKL | 38 hr |
| Feb 20, 11:22 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 6 hr |
| Feb 22, 7:32 AM EST | River Flood Warning | JKL | 43 hr |
| Feb 22, 4:45 PM EST | River Flood Advisory | JKL | 4 days |
| Feb 23, 11:31 PM EST | River Flood Advisory | JKL | 25 hr |
| Feb 25, 3:55 AM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | JKL | 25 hr |
| Mar 2, 3:44 PM EST | Flood Watch | JKL | 64 hr |
| Mar 2, 3:49 PM EST | Winter Storm Watch | JKL | 25 hr |
| Mar 3, 11:38 AM EST | River Flood Warning | JKL | 5 days |
| Mar 3, 4:24 PM EST | Winter Storm Warning | JKL | 47 hr |
| Mar 4, 6:57 AM EST | Areal Flood Warning | JKL | 5 days |
| Mar 4, 11:55 AM EST | River Flood Warning | JKL | 55 hr |
| Mar 4, 11:00 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 6 hr |
| Mar 6, 7:17 PM EST | River Flood Advisory | JKL | 4 days |
| Mar 8, 6:20 AM EDT | River Flood Advisory | JKL | 7 days |
| Mar 10, 3:45 AM EDT | Flood Watch | JKL | 25 hr |
| Mar 10, 3:46 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | JKL | 12 hr |
| Mar 10, 9:21 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 4 hr |
| Mar 10, 9:55 PM EDT | River Flood Advisory | JKL | 64 hr |
| Mar 11, 9:48 AM EDT | Dense Fog Advisory | JKL | 2 hr |
| Mar 12, 5:06 AM EDT | Dense Fog Advisory | JKL | 4 hr |
| Mar 12, 4:17 PM EDT | Flood Watch | JKL | 46 hr |
| Mar 14, 1:14 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 6 hr |
| Mar 14, 4:57 AM EDT | River Flood Advisory | JKL | 53 hr |
| Apr 2, 1:04 PM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | JKL | 33 hr |
| Apr 2, 6:03 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 57 min |
| Apr 3, 3:07 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 3 hr |
| Apr 3, 4:43 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | JKL | 3 hr |
| Apr 3, 5:52 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 3 hr |
| Apr 3, 6:39 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | JKL | 4 hr |
| Apr 3, 7:35 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | JKL | 3 hr |
| Apr 3, 7:47 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | JKL | 3 hr |
| Apr 3, 8:16 AM EDT | River Flood Advisory | JKL | 48 hr |
| Apr 3, 9:09 AM EDT | River Flood Warning | JKL | 54 hr |
| Apr 3, 9:28 AM EDT | River Flood Warning | JKL | 57 hr |
| Apr 3, 10:07 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | JKL | 24 hr |
| Apr 3, 10:11 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | JKL | 23 hr |
| Apr 3, 3:23 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 97 min |
| Apr 3, 4:10 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
| Apr 3, 5:27 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | 18 min |
| Apr 3, 7:35 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | JKL | 3 hr |
| Apr 4, 3:33 AM EDT | Frost Advisory | JKL | 29 hr |
| Apr 4, 9:18 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | JKL | 24 hr |
| Apr 4, 3:37 PM EDT | Freeze Warning | JKL | 17 hr |
| Apr 5, 2:39 PM EDT | River Flood Advisory | JKL | 29 hr |
| Apr 5, 2:39 PM EDT | River Flood Advisory | JKL | 23 hr |
| Apr 7, 12:40 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 6 hr |
| Apr 7, 6:03 PM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | JKL | 6 hr |
| Apr 7, 6:34 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 56 min |
| Apr 7, 6:50 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | JKL | 25 min |
| Apr 7, 6:58 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 2 hr |
| Apr 7, 7:10 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | JKL | 50 min |
| Apr 7, 7:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | 52 min |
| Apr 7, 7:55 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | JKL | 35 min |
| Apr 7, 7:57 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | JKL | 6 hr |
| Apr 8, 4:25 AM EDT | Dense Fog Advisory | JKL | 3 hr |
| Apr 8, 6:03 AM EDT | River Flood Advisory | JKL | 5 days |
| Apr 8, 2:55 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Apr 8, 3:57 PM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | JKL | 43 hr |
| Apr 8, 5:50 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 115 min |
| Apr 10, 3:32 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 58 min |
| Apr 10, 4:09 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 5 hr |
| Apr 10, 5:11 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | 34 min |
| Apr 10, 5:22 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 3 hr |
| Apr 13, 3:04 PM EDT | Flood Watch | JKL | 25 hr |
| Apr 14, 2:27 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 6 hr |
| Apr 14, 6:22 AM EDT | River Flood Advisory | JKL | 5 days |
| Apr 14, 7:39 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | JKL | 11 hr |
| Apr 14, 8:06 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | JKL | 22 hr |
| Apr 14, 11:53 AM EDT | River Flood Warning | JKL | 71 hr |
| Apr 14, 1:16 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | JKL | 61 hr |
| Apr 14, 6:53 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | JKL | 24 hr |
| Apr 16, 6:44 AM EDT | River Flood Advisory | JKL | 25 hr |
| Apr 19, 8:01 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | 44 min |
| Apr 22, 6:50 PM EDT | Frost Advisory | JKL | 13 hr |
| Apr 23, 4:02 AM EDT | Frost Advisory | JKL | 11 hr |
| Apr 23, 3:31 PM EDT | Freeze Warning | JKL | 17 hr |
| Apr 25, 8:01 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | 59 min |
| Apr 25, 8:59 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 3 hr |
| Apr 25, 9:02 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | 58 min |
| May 11, 1:53 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr |
| May 11, 2:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 8 hr |
| May 11, 4:13 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 92 min |
| May 11, 8:27 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 93 min |
| May 27, 1:22 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 83 min |
| Jun 8, 4:24 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 96 min |
| Jun 8, 5:04 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | 26 min |
| Jun 8, 5:16 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | 59 min |
| Jun 17, 3:20 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 115 min |
| Jun 18, 3:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | 22 min |
| Jun 18, 6:51 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 3 hr |
| Jun 19, 4:02 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 4 hr |
| Jun 19, 4:12 PM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | JKL | 26 hr |
| Jun 19, 4:35 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 3 hr |
| Jun 21, 2:52 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 113 min |
| Jun 21, 3:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 5 hr |
| Jun 23, 4:31 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | 44 min |
| Jun 25, 6:23 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 97 min |
| Jun 25, 7:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 8 hr |
| Jun 25, 11:05 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 85 min |
| Jun 26, 12:54 AM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | JKL | 25 hr |
| Jun 26, 2:21 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 3 hr |
| Jun 26, 5:17 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 28 min |
| Jun 26, 5:42 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 8 hr |
| Jun 26, 8:05 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 85 min |
| Jun 29, 1:52 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Jun 29, 2:33 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
| Jun 29, 4:30 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 90 min |
| Jun 29, 5:46 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | 44 min |
| Jun 29, 6:27 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 93 min |
| Jun 30, 1:37 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 7 hr |
| Jun 30, 3:48 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 117 min |
| Jun 30, 7:08 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 67 min |
| Jun 30, 8:07 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | 23 min |
| Jul 1, 10:55 PM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | JKL | 53 hr |
| Jul 2, 11:06 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 3 hr |
| Jul 2, 4:16 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 3 hr |
| Jul 3, 7:08 AM EDT | River Flood Advisory | JKL | 4 days |
| Jul 3, 1:24 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 3 hr |
| Jul 3, 1:42 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | JKL | 3 hr |
| Jul 3, 4:42 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | JKL | 3 hr |
| Jul 3, 5:59 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 4 hr |
| Jul 5, 12:56 AM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | JKL | 27 hr |
| Jul 5, 8:22 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 3 hr |
| Jul 7, 12:15 PM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | JKL | 32 hr |
| Jul 7, 8:07 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | 38 min |
| Jul 9, 12:15 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr |
| Jul 9, 2:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | 36 min |
| Jul 9, 2:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | 28 min |
| Jul 10, 10:24 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Jul 10, 10:43 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 7 hr |
| Jul 10, 11:10 AM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | JKL | 10 hr |
| Jul 10, 1:01 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | 33 min |
| Jul 10, 1:44 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 91 min |
| Jul 12, 4:57 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Jul 13, 3:11 AM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | JKL | 48 hr |
| Jul 13, 12:01 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 89 min |
| Jul 13, 12:55 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 7 hr |
| Jul 13, 3:04 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 86 min |
| Jul 13, 3:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | 47 min |
| Jul 13, 4:01 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | 29 min |
| Jul 13, 4:16 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 3 hr |
| Jul 14, 3:23 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | JKL | 6 hr |
| Jul 14, 6:05 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JKL | 40 min |
| Jul 14, 6:10 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | JKL | 3 hr |
| Jul 14, 10:59 AM EDT | River Flood Advisory | JKL | 3 days |
| Jul 14, 11:55 AM EDT | River Flood Advisory | JKL | 71 hr |
| Jul 14, 5:10 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
| Jul 14, 7:37 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 5 hr |
| Jul 14, 7:50 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | JKL | 4 hr |
| Jul 14, 8:06 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 84 min |
| Jul 14, 11:11 PM EDT | River Flood Warning | JKL | 56 hr |
| Jul 15, 12:10 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | JKL | 12 hr |
| Jul 16, 9:06 AM EDT | River Flood Warning | JKL | 18 hr |
| Jul 17, 7:01 AM EDT | River Flood Advisory | JKL | 19 hr |
| Jul 18, 12:33 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | 42 min |
| Jul 18, 12:48 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | 27 min |
| Jul 18, 1:17 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 118 min |
| Jul 19, 1:46 PM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | JKL | 41 hr |
| Jul 20, 2:05 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 85 min |
| Jul 21, 1:53 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 4 hr |
| Jul 21, 2:10 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | 50 min |
| Jul 28, 2:31 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | 44 min |
| Aug 4, 3:26 PM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | JKL | 53 hr |
| Aug 4, 6:17 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | 28 min |
| Aug 5, 6:07 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 4 hr |
| Aug 5, 6:16 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | 29 min |
| Aug 8, 3:38 AM EDT | Dense Fog Advisory | JKL | 5 hr |
| Aug 19, 12:23 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | 67 min |
| Aug 19, 4:28 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Sep 9, 4:29 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 3 hr |
| Sep 10, 3:15 PM EDT | Dense Fog Advisory | JKL | 20 hr |
| Oct 9, 1:52 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | 38 min |
| Oct 9, 2:21 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | JKL | 39 min |
| Oct 16, 3:35 AM EDT | Frost Advisory | JKL | 29 hr |
| Oct 16, 3:35 AM EDT | Freeze Watch | JKL | 24 hr |
| Oct 17, 3:31 AM EDT | Freeze Warning | JKL | 29 hr |
| Oct 17, 2:00 PM EDT | Freeze Warning | JKL | 43 hr |
| Nov 2, 3:39 AM EST | Dense Fog Advisory | JKL | 4 hr |
| Nov 12, 4:14 PM EST | Fire Weather Watch | JKL | 11 hr |
| Nov 13, 2:58 AM EST | Red Flag Warning | JKL | 16 hr |
| Nov 17, 2:44 PM EST | Wind Advisory | JKL | 28 hr |
| Dec 2, 5:34 AM EST | River Flood Advisory | JKL | 52 hr |
| Dec 8, 3:42 AM EST | Dense Fog Advisory | JKL | 5 hr |
| Dec 10, 3:52 AM EST | Dense Fog Advisory | JKL | 7 hr |
| Dec 14, 3:38 AM EST | Lake Wind Advisory | JKL | 15 hr |
| Dec 14, 7:16 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | JKL | 59 min |
| Dec 23, 7:25 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 5 hr |
| Dec 23, 8:42 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Dec 23, 11:45 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | JKL | 60 min |
| Dec 24, 12:17 AM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 3 hr |
| Dec 24, 12:45 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | JKL | 60 min |
| Dec 24, 3:50 PM EST | Flood Watch | JKL | 44 hr |
| Dec 25, 9:49 AM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | JKL | 5 hr |
| Dec 25, 12:53 PM EST | River Flood Advisory | JKL | 3 days |
| Dec 26, 1:38 AM EST | River Flood Advisory | JKL | 5 days |
By product
Every kind of product issued here, grouped by hazard. Each opens the same place narrowed to that product.
The busiest days
Days with the most alerts issued, by UTC date.
Nearby
Alerts in force nowTornadoes on recordForecastThe radar archive20142016
Sources
National Weather Service watches, warnings, advisories and statements from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's VTEC archive, which reconstructs tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood and marine warnings back to 1986 from the NWS text archive. Storm Prediction Center watches and mesoscale discussions from SPC's archive through the Mesonet. County centers from the US Census Bureau. Warning verification from the Mesonet's Cow. Rebuilt daily.