River Flood Warning 16, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
458 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015

CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
A TRAINING MCS LAYING WEST/EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE WAVY LINE EXTENDS ALL THE WAY PAST THE MISSISSIPI RIVER.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
THEN DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT TO THE EAST IN THE MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT AND LEAD TO MORE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. OUR DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW BAD THE STORMS GET. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY MOIST. RAPID FLOW WILL KEEP THE
STORMS MOVING ALONG...BUT IF TRAINING/REPEATING CELLS
OCCUR...FLOODING WILL STILL BE A THREAT...AND THE FFA WILL BE
CONTINUED.

THE LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND IT WILL SEND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT. OUR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL END WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR ON
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015

AFTER AN EXITING SHORTWAVE...THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL FIND ITSELF
IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH SLOWLY BUILDING HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
COMPLETELY AND WINDS DIE DOWN...ALLOWING FOR MAXIMUM LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE LOW 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE
DEEPER VALLEYS POSSIBLY SEEING SOME UPPER 20S. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST THAT THERE COULD BE SOME FROST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. TO CONTRAST THAT...WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION...WHICH MIXED WITH A
LARGE AMOUNT OF SOLAR RADIATION UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL LET
TEMPS REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR
ENERGY TO TAP INTO THIS WARM MOIST FLOW COMING IN FROM THE GULF
STATES...CREATING WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE GULF STATES.
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD AND INTO OUR CWA...
AIDED BY A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS SET UP NORTH OF
THE REGION. AS THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
WHILE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE AND
RAIN CHANCES...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON A MODEL BLEND FOR EXACT
TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. MORE THAN
LIKELY...IT WILL NOT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT
THERE IS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD WE WILL SEE SEVERAL WET PERIODS FROM
MONDAY ON. MEANWHILE ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD AFTER MONDAY
AS WELL. AND AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
INCREASE EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUSHING SOUTHEAST TOWARD I-64 AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LIKELY
PRODUCING LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WERE
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST BEFORE STALLING...PROBABLY SOMEWHERE
NEAR OR A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. MORE LOCALIZED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE DURING
THE NIGHT. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY EXIT TO THE EAST
AND DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY MORNING. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PERSIST NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. POOR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT TIMES...BUT
THE THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY IN TIMING TO WARRANT MORE THAN
MVFR AND SHRA/VCTS IN TAFS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
THIS POINT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS...IT WILL SEND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN ABOUT 01Z
AND 04Z...PUTTING AN END TO DEEP CONVECTION. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
AND DRIZZLE WITH MVFR OR IFR SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...WITH
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. GUSTS OF AT LEAST 20-30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST OF NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119.

&&

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
802 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119-
120-041100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-
CLAY-LESLIE-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...
BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...
HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...
PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
802 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO ANTICIPATED...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF FLOODING...
HAIL...OR DAMAGING WIND TODAY AND TONIGHT.

KYZ087-088-118-041100-
BELL-HARLAN-LETCHER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...
HARLAN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG
802 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF HAIL OR
DAMAGING WIND TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAL

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