Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 621
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 11, 2015, 7:27 PM CDT for 36 counties in Kentucky; 10 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 93 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 11, 2015, 7:27 PM CDT (00:27 UTC)
- Expired
- May 11, 2015, 9:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 93 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 46 counties
Adair County, KY, Bath County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Green County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Mason County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Washington County, KY, Woodford County, KY, Adams County, OH, Brown County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Licking County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH
The radar
The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 101 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 129 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -47 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1435 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 44 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 58 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 168 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.5
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
901
ACUS11 KWNS 120028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120027
OHZ000-KYZ000-120200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KY...CNTRL/SRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165...166...
VALID 120027Z - 120200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
165...166...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...DESPITE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE
AND THE OVERALL RISK REMAINS MINIMAL. REPLACEMENT WW/S ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED BEYOND THE 02Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION.
DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXISTS
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFTS FROM THE COLUMBUS AREA TO THE KY/TN
BORDER IN CNTRL KY. MODIFIED 00Z ILN/BNA RAOBS SUGGESTS MLCAPE IS
MEAGER AOB 500 J/KG WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEEP SHEAR
REMAINS STRONG HOWEVER...WITH 0-6 KM VALUES AROUND 40 KT. BUT
SURFACE WINDS HAVE LARGELY VEERED ACROSS CNTRL KY WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE LACKING AND
WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION...ACTIVITY
SEEMS UNLIKELY TO GREATLY INTENSIFY.
..GRAMS.. 05/12/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 39588335 40248255 40078227 39388247 38678276 37068454
36658559 36928584 37318572 38298465 39588335Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.