Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525

October 12, 202115 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Oct 12, 2021, 10:40 PM CDT for 15 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 12, 2021, 10:40 PM CDT (03:40 UTC)
Expired: Oct 13, 2021, 4:28 AM CDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

Counties Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Morris County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Republic County, KS, Riley County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Smith County, KS, Washington County, KS

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 2%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 60%

Warnings issued inside it

1 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 12, 10:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Osborne, Phillips, Rooks, Smith	42 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 238 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 441 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -298 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 585 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 64 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 383 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 374 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

754 
WWUS20 KWNS 130334
SEL5  
SPC WW 130334
KSZ000-131000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 525
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northern Kansas

* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1035 PM
  until 500 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A well-organized line of storms will continue to steadily
progress east-northeastward across northern Kansas late this evening
and overnight. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary risk.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30
statute miles north and south of a line from 100 miles west of
Concordia KS to 35 miles east of Concordia KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 522...WW 523...WW 524...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
20040.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 12, 8:56 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Barton, Clark, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth and 19 more	64 min
Oct 12, 9:35 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Clark, Comanche and 25 more	7 hr
Oct 12, 11:34 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Barton, Comanche, Edwards, Ellsworth, Harper and 13 more	86 min
Oct 13, 12:54 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Cloud, Jewell, Mitchell, Republic, Washington	96 min
Oct 13, 1:52 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Butler, Chase, Cowley, Harper, Harvey and 7 more	83 min
Oct 13, 2:54 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Dickinson, Geary, Marshall, Morris, Pottawatomie, Riley and 2 more	96 min
Oct 13, 3:26 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Butler, Chase, Cowley, Marion, Sedgwick, Sumner	94 min
Oct 13, 5:16 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chautauqua, Elk, Labette, Montgomery, Neosho, Wilson and 1 more	59 min
Oct 13, 7:34 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Linn	116 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kansas, 2021 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.