Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1848

October 13, 202113 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 13, 2021, 1:52 AM CDT for 13 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 83 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 13, 2021, 1:52 AM CDT (06:52 UTC)
Expired: Oct 13, 2021, 3:15 AM CDT
In force: 83 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Tornado watch 524

Counties Barber County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Reno County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS

The radar

The Wichita radar (KICT), 40 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 189 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 441 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -298 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 585 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 64 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 383 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 374 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

010 
ACUS11 KWNS 130653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130652 
KSZ000-130815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1848
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Areas affected...Portions of central/south-central KS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 524...

Valid 130652Z - 130815Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 524 continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered severe/damaging winds and a tornado or two
remain possible with a line of storms moving eastward across
central/south-central Kansas early this morning.

DISCUSSION...A robust line of storms is progressing quickly eastward
around 40-50 kt across central and south-central KS. A measured
severe wind gust to 71 mph was recently recorded at an OK Mesonet
site very near the OK/KS border in Woods County OK. Other estimated
winds around 70-75 mph have been reported with this line in KS. In
the short term, scattered severe winds will likely remain the threat
given the linear nature of the ongoing storms and the rather strong
low-level inflow associated with a 50-60 kt southerly low-level jet.
But, an embedded tornado or two also remains possible with very
favorable low-level shear. The line is currently processing the best
boundary-layer instability over south-central KS, where around
1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present. Boundary-layer instability
weakens fairly quickly into southeastern KS, but low-level
moistening owing to the ongoing strong low-level warm advection may
offset this to some extent. With favorable low-level and deep-layer
shear present across this region, storms will probably be able to
maintain their intensity for at least a couple more hours.
Accordingly, Tornado Watch 524 has been locally extended eastward a
few counties by WFO ICT.

..Gleason.. 10/13/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37069897 37739843 38199791 39089773 38719711 38489639
            37039654 37069897

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 12, 8:56 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Barton, Clark, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth and 19 more	64 min
Oct 12, 9:35 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Clark, Comanche and 25 more	7 hr
Oct 12, 10:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Geary, Jewell, Mitchell and 9 more	6 hr
Oct 12, 11:34 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Barton, Comanche, Edwards, Ellsworth, Harper and 13 more	86 min
Oct 13, 12:54 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Cloud, Jewell, Mitchell, Republic, Washington	96 min
Oct 13, 2:54 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Dickinson, Geary, Marshall, Morris, Pottawatomie, Riley and 2 more	96 min
Oct 13, 3:26 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Butler, Chase, Cowley, Marion, Sedgwick, Sumner	94 min
Oct 13, 5:16 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chautauqua, Elk, Labette, Montgomery, Neosho, Wilson and 1 more	59 min
Oct 13, 7:34 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Linn	116 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.