Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1849
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 13, 2021, 2:54 AM CDT for 8 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 96 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 13, 2021, 2:54 AM CDT (07:54 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 13, 2021, 4:30 AM CDT
- In force
- 96 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 525
Counties Dickinson County, KS, Geary County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Morris County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Riley County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS
The radar
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 95 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2220 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 158 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 199 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
238
ACUS11 KWNS 130755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130754
KSZ000-130930-
Mesoscale Discussion 1849
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021
Areas affected...Portions of north-central into northeastern KS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525...
Valid 130754Z - 130930Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525
continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds remain possible in the short
term. Downstream watch issuance into more of northeastern Kansas
appears unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...The northern portion of a squall line has recently
weakened as it moved from north-central into northeastern KS. This
is occurring largely due to a less favorable thermodynamic
environment with eastward extent across northeastern KS. Fairly
strong MLCIN should continue to temper updraft strength, even though
low-level warm/moist advection is occurring with a stout, 50-60+ kt
southerly low-level jet. Recent radar data from KTWX shows some
strong inbound velocities within the line, and isolated strong/gusty
winds may continue in the short term even with the marginal
thermodynamic environment. At this point, it does not appear that
the warm/moist advection at low levels will be enough to offset the
nocturnal increase in convective inhibition. Accordingly, the
overall severe threat should remain rather isolated/marginal, and
downstream watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.
..Gleason.. 10/13/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...
LAT...LON 38639728 38959712 39959711 39969625 39419599 38579601
38639728SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 8:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clark, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth and 19 more | 64 min |
| Oct 12, 9:35 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Clark, Comanche and 25 more | 7 hr |
| Oct 12, 10:40 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Geary, Jewell, Mitchell and 9 more | 6 hr |
| Oct 12, 11:34 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Barton, Comanche, Edwards, Ellsworth, Harper and 13 more | 86 min |
| Oct 13, 12:54 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Jewell, Mitchell, Republic, Washington | 96 min |
| Oct 13, 1:52 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Butler, Chase, Cowley, Harper, Harvey and 7 more | 83 min |
| Oct 13, 3:26 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Chase, Cowley, Marion, Sedgwick, Sumner | 94 min |
| Oct 13, 5:16 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chautauqua, Elk, Labette, Montgomery, Neosho, Wilson and 1 more | 59 min |
| Oct 13, 7:34 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Linn | 116 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.