Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1845
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 12, 2021, 11:34 PM CDT for 19 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 86 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 12, 2021, 11:34 PM CDT (04:34 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 13, 2021, 1:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 86 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Tornado watch 524
Counties Barber County, KS, Barton County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Stafford County, KS
The radar
The Wichita radar (KICT), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 4.6 hours before the alert went out and 111 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 441 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -298 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 585 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 64 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 383 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 374 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
349
ACUS11 KWNS 130435
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130434
KSZ000-130600-
Mesoscale Discussion 1845
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021
Areas affected...central through south central Kansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 524...
Valid 130434Z - 130600Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 524 continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes will
persist into the early morning hours across central through south
central Kansas.
DISCUSSION...Line of storms with organized structures including
bowing segments and occasional mesovortices continues through
central KS at around 40 kt. Latest objective analysis indicates up
to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and dewpoints continue to rise through the 50s
F and even lower 60s across southern KS. A weakly stable
near-surface layer is still evident on forecast soundings, which is
an overall limiting factor for a more robust tornado threat.
Nevertheless, very large low-level hodographs with up to 500 m2/s2
0-1 km storm relative helicity will continue to support some
potential for occasional mesovortices and a few QLCS tornadoes as
dewpoints increase a bit further. Otherwise, damaging wind remains
likely with the stronger more organized storms as activity continues
east next few hours.
..Dial.. 10/13/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...
LAT...LON 37089974 38369956 39039906 38959761 38049730 37119762
37089974SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 8:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clark, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth and 19 more | 64 min |
| Oct 12, 9:35 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Clark, Comanche and 25 more | 7 hr |
| Oct 12, 10:40 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Geary, Jewell, Mitchell and 9 more | 6 hr |
| Oct 13, 12:54 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Jewell, Mitchell, Republic, Washington | 96 min |
| Oct 13, 1:52 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Butler, Chase, Cowley, Harper, Harvey and 7 more | 83 min |
| Oct 13, 2:54 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dickinson, Geary, Marshall, Morris, Pottawatomie, Riley and 2 more | 96 min |
| Oct 13, 3:26 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Chase, Cowley, Marion, Sedgwick, Sumner | 94 min |
| Oct 13, 5:16 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chautauqua, Elk, Labette, Montgomery, Neosho, Wilson and 1 more | 59 min |
| Oct 13, 7:34 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Linn | 116 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.