Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1845

October 12, 202119 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 12, 2021, 11:34 PM CDT for 19 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 86 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 12, 2021, 11:34 PM CDT (04:34 UTC)
Expired
Oct 13, 2021, 1:00 AM CDT
In force
86 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 524

Counties Barber County, KS, Barton County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Stafford County, KS

The radar

The Wichita radar (KICT), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 4.6 hours before the alert went out and 111 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2021-10-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 441 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2021-10-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 383 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
441 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-298 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
585 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
64 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
383 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
374 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

349 
ACUS11 KWNS 130435
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130434 
KSZ000-130600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1845
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

Areas affected...central through south central Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 524...

Valid 130434Z - 130600Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 524 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes will
persist into the early morning hours across central through south
central Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Line of storms with organized structures including
bowing segments and occasional mesovortices continues through
central KS at around 40 kt. Latest objective analysis indicates up
to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and dewpoints continue to rise through the 50s
F and even lower 60s across southern KS. A weakly stable
near-surface layer is still evident on forecast soundings, which is
an overall limiting factor for a more robust tornado threat.
Nevertheless, very large low-level hodographs with up to 500 m2/s2
0-1 km storm relative helicity will continue to support some
potential for occasional mesovortices and a few QLCS tornadoes as
dewpoints increase a bit further. Otherwise, damaging wind remains
likely with the stronger more organized storms as activity continues
east next few hours.

..Dial.. 10/13/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37089974 38369956 39039906 38959761 38049730 37119762
            37089974

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 12, 8:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Barton, Clark, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth and 19 more64 min
Oct 12, 9:35 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBarber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Clark, Comanche and 25 more7 hr
Oct 12, 10:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClay, Cloud, Dickinson, Geary, Jewell, Mitchell and 9 more6 hr
Oct 13, 12:54 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Cloud, Jewell, Mitchell, Republic, Washington96 min
Oct 13, 1:52 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Butler, Chase, Cowley, Harper, Harvey and 7 more83 min
Oct 13, 2:54 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDickinson, Geary, Marshall, Morris, Pottawatomie, Riley and 2 more96 min
Oct 13, 3:26 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Chase, Cowley, Marion, Sedgwick, Sumner94 min
Oct 13, 5:16 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChautauqua, Elk, Labette, Montgomery, Neosho, Wilson and 1 more59 min
Oct 13, 7:34 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Linn116 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.