Mesoscale Discussion 1853

Issued

Oct 13, 2021, 7:34 AM CDT (12:34 UTC)

Expired

Oct 13, 2021, 9:30 AM CDT

In force

116 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

919 
ACUS11 KWNS 131235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131234 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-131430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1853
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern OK...far eastern
KS...extreme northwestern AR...and western/central MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 131234Z - 131430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this
morning. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues to progress eastward this
morning from parts of central into northeastern OK, southeastern KS,
and western MO. The airmass ahead of this activity is only weakly
unstable, with up to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE present. But, strong
low-level and deep-layer shear still exist across the warm sector.
Occasional strong/gusty winds will remain possible this morning for
a couple more hours, although recent observations from the OK
Mesonet and various ASOS in southeastern KS show winds remaining
well below severe levels. The tornado potential appears a bit more
limited owing to the 0-1-km bulk shear vector remaining largely
parallel to the ongoing line of storms. Even so, occasional
protrusions with weak embedded low-level circulations have recently
been noted in the line across central OK, and a brief tornado also
appears possible given the strength of the low-level flow. This line
should gradually weaken with eastward extent later this morning, and
the overall severe threat currently appears too isolated/marginal
for watch issuance.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 10/13/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   34989696 36079626 36999546 37769517 38849448 38979423
            38979336 38679278 37339333 36109448 34999607 34799683
            34989696

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.