Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1843
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 12, 2021, 8:56 PM CDT for 25 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 64 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 12, 2021, 8:56 PM CDT (01:56 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 12, 2021, 10:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 64 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch likely
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 25 counties
Barber County, KS, Barton County, KS, Clark County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Ford County, KS, Graham County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Ness County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Trego County, KS
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 86 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 441 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -298 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 585 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 64 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 383 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 374 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
810
ACUS11 KWNS 130156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130156
KSZ000-130300-
Mesoscale Discussion 1843
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0856 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021
Areas affected...central Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 130156Z - 130300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Line of storms across western KS is expected to persist
into the overnight through central KS. Damaging wind should be the
main threat, but at least a couple of tornadoes will also be
possible.
DISCUSSION...Line of storms from just east of Goodland to west of
Garden City is moving east at around 35 kt. Embedded organized
structures continue to be observed. Moisture will continue to return
northward through the downstream warm sector with dewpoints likely
to rise into the low 60s F across southern KS and 50s farther north.
Even with this return of low-level moisture, forecast soundings
indicate a near-surface stable layer, suggesting inflow to the
storms will probably remain just above the surface. Northward
destabilization with time with MUCAPE from 1500-2000 J/KG along with
large low-level hodographs and strong effective shear will continue
to support embedded organized storms with damaging wind the main
threat. However, given degree of effective storm relative helicity,
at least a couple of tornadoes will remain possible, especially over
the southern half of KS with any embedded supercells or
meso-vortices despite the sub-optimal near-surface layer.
..Dial/Guyer.. 10/13/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 37219983 38610012 39829981 39759812 37989800 37199823
37219983SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 9:35 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Clark, Comanche and 25 more | 7 hr |
| Oct 12, 10:40 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Geary, Jewell, Mitchell and 9 more | 6 hr |
| Oct 12, 11:34 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Barton, Comanche, Edwards, Ellsworth, Harper and 13 more | 86 min |
| Oct 13, 12:54 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Jewell, Mitchell, Republic, Washington | 96 min |
| Oct 13, 1:52 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Butler, Chase, Cowley, Harper, Harvey and 7 more | 83 min |
| Oct 13, 2:54 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dickinson, Geary, Marshall, Morris, Pottawatomie, Riley and 2 more | 96 min |
| Oct 13, 3:26 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Chase, Cowley, Marion, Sedgwick, Sumner | 94 min |
| Oct 13, 5:16 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chautauqua, Elk, Labette, Montgomery, Neosho, Wilson and 1 more | 59 min |
| Oct 13, 7:34 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Linn | 116 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.