Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1852
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 13, 2021, 5:16 AM CDT for 7 counties in Kansas; 15 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 59 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 13, 2021, 5:16 AM CDT (10:16 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 13, 2021, 6:15 AM CDT
- In force
- 59 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Tornado watch 526
All 22 counties
Chautauqua County, KS, Elk County, KS, Labette County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Cleveland County, OK, Creek County, OK, Grady County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, McClain County, OK, Noble County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Osage County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Washington County, OK
The radar
The Norman radar (KTLX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 496 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -164 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 662 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 58 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 331 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 372 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 5.5
The text
As transmitted.
829
ACUS11 KWNS 131017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131016
KSZ000-OKZ000-131115-
Mesoscale Discussion 1852
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021
Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern OK and southeastern KS
Concerning...Tornado Watch 526...
Valid 131016Z - 131115Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 526 continues.
SUMMARY...Occasional strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado may occur with a line of storms in the short term, but
downstream watch issuance will probably not be needed.
DISCUSSION...The line of storms moving eastward across
central/northern OK and southeastern KS has mostly produced
sub-severe wind gusts over the past couple of hours. This is largely
due to the influence of a near-surface stable layer limiting
convective downdraft potential. Still, there is plentiful low-level
flow per the KTLX VWP, and occasional strong to severe wind gusts
will remain possible in the short term. Additionally, a low-level
circulation embedded within the QLCS has recently strengthened over
the OKC metro. With effective SRH exceeding 400 m2/s2, a brief
tornado also appears possible. Regardless of the near-term severe
potential, the overall threat appears increasingly marginal/isolated
with eastward extent across OK/KS early this morning. At this point,
downstream watch issuance does not appear likely.
..Gleason.. 10/13/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 34889840 35629780 37089681 38059612 37729504 36569548
35389640 34819737 34759802 34889840SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 8:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clark, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth and 19 more | 64 min |
| Oct 12, 9:35 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Clark, Comanche and 25 more | 7 hr |
| Oct 12, 10:40 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Geary, Jewell, Mitchell and 9 more | 6 hr |
| Oct 12, 11:34 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Barton, Comanche, Edwards, Ellsworth, Harper and 13 more | 86 min |
| Oct 13, 12:54 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Jewell, Mitchell, Republic, Washington | 96 min |
| Oct 13, 1:52 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Butler, Chase, Cowley, Harper, Harvey and 7 more | 83 min |
| Oct 13, 2:54 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dickinson, Geary, Marshall, Morris, Pottawatomie, Riley and 2 more | 96 min |
| Oct 13, 3:26 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Chase, Cowley, Marion, Sedgwick, Sumner | 94 min |
| Oct 13, 7:34 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Linn | 116 min |
| Oct 12, 7:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Beckham, Caddo, Comanche, Cotton, Custer and 10 more | 2 hr |
| Oct 12, 9:18 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche and 12 more | 117 min |
| Oct 12, 11:05 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian and 19 more | 7 hr |
| Oct 13, 1:18 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Custer, Dewey, Ellis and 7 more | 87 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.