Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1850

October 13, 20216 counties in Kansas; 12 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 13, 2021, 3:26 AM CDT for 6 counties in Kansas; 12 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 94 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 13, 2021, 3:26 AM CDT (08:26 UTC)
Expired
Oct 13, 2021, 5:00 AM CDT
In force
94 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 524...526

Counties Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Marion County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Logan County, OK, Noble County, OK, Washita County, OK

The radar

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2021-10-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 496 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2021-10-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 331 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
496 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-164 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
662 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
331 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
372 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
5.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

729 
ACUS11 KWNS 130827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130826 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-131000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1850
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Areas affected...Portions of western/northern OK into south-central
and southeastern KS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 524...526...

Valid 130826Z - 131000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 524, 526 continues.

SUMMARY...Mainly an isolated strong to severe wind threat continues
with a line of storms moving eastward.

DISCUSSION...Observations from the OK Mesonet and other sites in
OK/KS show that the wind gusts associated with an extensive squall
line have largely remained sub-severe over the past hour or so, with
a wind gust to 50 kt at KICT at 0810Z being the exception. While
there is at least moderate boundary-layer instability ahead of the
line per mesoanalysis, there is likely also a shallow near-surface
stable layer which is inhibiting convective downdraft potential to
some extent. Even so, there is still some chance for occasional
strong to severe wind gusts to breach this stable layer and reach
the surface given the strength of the low/mid-level flow present
across OK/KS.  Both low/deep-layer shear vectors are becoming
oriented increasingly parallel to the squall line (see recent VWPs
from KFDR, KVNX, and KICT). This should tend to limit the potential
for low-level circulations embedded within the QLCS, but a brief
tornado still remains possible given the strength of the low-level
flow associated with a strong, 50-60+ kt southerly low-level jet.

..Gleason.. 10/13/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   34539985 34999942 35479907 36169857 36889799 37759754
            38499703 38439640 37029649 35779719 34939813 34399916
            34539985

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 12, 8:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Barton, Clark, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth and 19 more64 min
Oct 12, 9:35 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBarber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Clark, Comanche and 25 more7 hr
Oct 12, 10:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClay, Cloud, Dickinson, Geary, Jewell, Mitchell and 9 more6 hr
Oct 12, 11:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Barton, Comanche, Edwards, Ellsworth, Harper and 13 more86 min
Oct 13, 12:54 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Cloud, Jewell, Mitchell, Republic, Washington96 min
Oct 13, 1:52 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Butler, Chase, Cowley, Harper, Harvey and 7 more83 min
Oct 13, 2:54 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDickinson, Geary, Marshall, Morris, Pottawatomie, Riley and 2 more96 min
Oct 13, 5:16 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChautauqua, Elk, Labette, Montgomery, Neosho, Wilson and 1 more59 min
Oct 13, 7:34 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Linn116 min
Oct 12, 7:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Beckham, Caddo, Comanche, Cotton, Custer and 10 more2 hr
Oct 12, 9:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche and 12 more117 min
Oct 12, 11:05 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAlfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian and 19 more7 hr
Oct 13, 1:18 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Custer, Dewey, Ellis and 7 more87 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.