Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300

June 21, 2021Coos County, Grafton County, New Hampshire; 20 counties in New York; 14 counties in Vermont

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jun 21, 2021, 1:11 PM EDT for Coos County, Grafton County, New Hampshire; 20 counties in New York; 14 counties in Vermont. It was in force for 10 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 21, 2021, 1:11 PM EDT (17:11 UTC)
Expired
Jun 21, 2021, 10:45 PM EDT
In force
10 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 36 counties

Coos County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Broome County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Clinton County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, St. Lawrence County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Addison County, VT, Bennington County, VT, Caledonia County, VT, Chittenden County, VT, Essex County, VT, Franklin County, VT, Grand Isle County, VT, Lamoille County, VT, Orange County, VT, Orleans County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Washington County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT

The radar

The Burlington radar (KCXX), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
10%
Ten or more severe wind reports
70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
60%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

49 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 21, 1:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVFranklin, St. Lawrence49 min
Jun 21, 2:07 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMCortland, Madison, Onondaga53 min
Jun 21, 2:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYHamilton, Herkimer42 min
Jun 21, 2:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVFranklin, St. Lawrence55 min
Jun 21, 3:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYHamilton42 min
Jun 21, 3:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVEssex62 min
Jun 21, 3:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVClinton, Essex, Franklin, St. Lawrence54 min
Jun 21, 3:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMCayuga, Cortland, Onondaga, Tompkins64 min
Jun 21, 3:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMMadison, Oneida42 min
Jun 21, 3:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMOneida26 min
Jun 21, 3:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYHamilton, Warren41 min
Jun 21, 3:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYHamilton34 min
Jun 21, 4:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMCortland, Madison, Oneida, Onondaga35 min
Jun 21, 4:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYHamilton, Warren46 min
Jun 21, 4:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVAddison, Chittenden, Lamoille, Orange, Washington60 min
Jun 21, 4:22 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningALYHamilton44 min
Jun 21, 4:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYWarren, Washington23 min
Jun 21, 4:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVEssex65 min
Jun 21, 4:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMMadison, Oneida, Onondaga64 min
Jun 21, 4:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMCayuga, Chemung, Schuyler, Seneca, Steuben, Tompkins48 min
Jun 21, 4:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYWarren, Washington42 min
Jun 21, 4:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMCayuga, Onondaga67 min
Jun 21, 5:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYWarren, Washington27 min
Jun 21, 5:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVEssex63 min
Jun 21, 5:17 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVAddison, Caledonia, Chittenden, Lamoille, Orange, Orleans and 2 more58 min
Jun 21, 5:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome, Cayuga, Chemung, Cortland, Tioga, Tompkins42 min
Jun 21, 5:21 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYWarren, Washington39 min
Jun 21, 5:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMOneida47 min
Jun 21, 5:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMCayuga, Chenango, Cortland, Madison, Onondaga56 min
Jun 21, 5:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXCoos43 min
Jun 21, 5:54 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYWashington36 min
Jun 21, 5:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBroome, Chenango, Cortland, Tioga, Tompkins61 min
Jun 21, 6:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVCaledonia, Essex59 min
Jun 21, 6:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChenango, Cortland, Madison, Oneida, Onondaga55 min
Jun 21, 6:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYHamilton, Herkimer57 min
Jun 21, 6:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVRutland, Windsor57 min
Jun 21, 6:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYFulton, Hamilton, Herkimer62 min
Jun 21, 6:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXCoos52 min
Jun 21, 6:46 PM EDTTornado WarningALYFulton, Hamilton, Herkimer29 min
Jun 21, 6:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVOrange, Windsor28 min
Jun 21, 6:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXGrafton, Sullivan35 min
Jun 21, 6:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChenango, Otsego64 min
Jun 21, 7:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYFulton, Hamilton, Saratoga, Warren62 min
Jun 21, 7:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChenango, Delaware, Otsego39 min
Jun 21, 7:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYWarren, Washington34 min
Jun 21, 8:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYWarren, Washington43 min
Jun 21, 8:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYMontgomery, Saratoga, Schenectady62 min
Jun 21, 9:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYWashington60 min
Jun 21, 9:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYAlbany, Rensselaer, Saratoga61 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-06-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 524 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-06-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 162 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
524 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-118 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
990 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
162 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
192 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
2.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

375 
WWUS20 KWNS 211710
SEL0  
SPC WW 211710
NHZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-220100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 300
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
110 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northern New Hampshire
  Central and Eastern New York
  Vermont

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until
  900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify rapidly this
afternoon across the watch area.  Scattered severe storms capable of
damaging wind gusts and large hail will be possible.  An isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west of
Syracuse NY to 35 miles north northeast of Berlin NH. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 299...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 21, 11:59 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCattaraugus, Chautauqua91 min
Jun 21, 12:31 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClinton, Essex, Franklin, Fulton, Hamilton, Herkimer and 12 more89 min
Jun 21, 12:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 14 more7 hr
Jun 21, 3:35 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClinton, Essex, Franklin, Fulton, Hamilton, Herkimer and 7 more85 min
Jun 21, 3:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlbany, Columbia, Delaware, Dutchess, Greene, Otsego and 5 more7 hr
Jun 21, 3:47 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Livingston, Ontario, Steuben, Wayne, Yates58 min
Jun 21, 4:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCOrange6 hr
Jun 21, 6:50 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlbany, Broome, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland, Delaware and 23 more55 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Vermont, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Hampshire, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.