Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
406 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into this evening
ahead of a strong cold front. Some of these storms will be
severe with damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy
rainfall all possible. Lingering showers exit Tuesday, with
much cooler and drier air overtaking the region for midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
400 PM Update:

Severe Thunderstorm Watches are in effect for the entire area
for the remainder of this afternoon into this evening. Several
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have already been issued so far
with damaging winds and large hail already reported.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed across much
of the area, especially Central NY over the last several hours.
This is ahead of a main cluster/broken line of storms that is
currently approaching our forecast area from Western NY and
Central PA. Ample instability combined with plenty of shear is
in place, along with some helicity. The main threat with any
storms will be damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy
rainfall. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well,
although LCL heights are a bit on the higher side for tornadic
development (~1500m; generally less than 1000m is ideal for
this). The most damaging winds will be located with any bowing
segments with the approaching line of storms. Fortunately, these
storms have been relatively progressive and therefore any
potential flash flooding issues are expected to be extremely
localized.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening,
although the severe weather threat will gradually diminish with
the loss of daytime heating and the cold front passage bringing
cooler and more stable air. Temperatures will fall overnight
into the 50s and possibly even some upper 40s in portions of
Steuben and Oneida counties.

Some additional showers will be possible Tuesday morning before
exiting eastward by the afternoon. With a much more stable
airmass in place, not expecting any thunderstorms for Tuesday.
Otherwise gradual clearing is expected throughout the afternoon.
Highs will be quite cool for this time of the year, only in the
60s.

Chilly temperatures are expected Tuesday night with lows only in
the lower to mid 40s. Some upper 30s will even be possible
across northern Oneida county and the higher elevations of the
Catskills. Clear skies and light winds, plus lingering moisture
near the ground from today's rainfall will allow for valley fog
formation late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather with a gradual warming trend for the short term, as an
area of high pressure builds over the region.

On Wednesday, there will be a departing upper level trough over the
region. 1000-500mb thicknesses will still be rather low, starting
out between 546-552dm in the morning, with warm air advection slowly
arriving by afternoon. Otherwise, at this time guidance is indicating
mostly sunny skies with only a slight west-northwest breeze 7-15
mph. Below average temperatures expected, after starting out
very chilly in the upper 30s to mid-40s early, it'll recover to
between 70-75 by afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, quiet and cool with light winds and
high pressure directly overhead. Cannot rule out some patchy valley
fog. but not enough confidence to put in the forecast grids just
yet. Overnight lows dip down into the mid-40s to lower 50s.

Thursday: Our weather will be dominated by the surface ridge of high
pressure once again, as it slowly slides of the New England coast.
Gradually increasing southerly return flow, with mostly sunny skies
expected. Temperatures warm back up to seasonable levels, with highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Dew points remain low, in the upper
40s to low 50s, so very comfortable humidity levels.

Thursday night: Another quiet night weatherwise. Surface ridging
continues to nudge in from New England, which will keep mostly clear
conditions over our CWA. Not as cool, but still comfortable with
overnight lows mainly in the 50s. Light southeast winds 5-10 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Starting off mainly quiet on Friday, but an upper level trough
slowly approaches from the west late in the day. Overall, expecting
partly sunny and seasonable weather, but again cannot rule out a
stray late day shower or storm. Chances for scattered showers
gradually increase Friday night, as a surface low tracks into the
central Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley region. Warm overnight
lows expected considering the increased clouds and southerly
flow...expect low to mid-60s overnight.

The weather pattern then looks to remain active for the weekend and
right into early next week. Our area will be caught in a deep
southwest flow with ample moisture (1.75"+ PWATS) between a slow
approaching upper trough and a retrograding Atlantic ridge.
Instability will increase, bringing likely PoPs for showers and
scattered t'storms Saturday, Sunday and Monday afternoon. No
particular day looks like a washout at this time. A few storms
may be better organize heading into Sunday and Monday, but this
will depend on the trough position and amount of deep shear
available. Becoming more humid as dew points rise into the 60s,
along with seasonably warm temperatures. Expect daytime highs
between 80-85, with muggy overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions will exist this afternoon. However,
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon; some may be severe
with strong winds and hail. Right now included thunder in 2 hour
long TEMPO groups during the period where highest confidence is.
That being said, be on the lookout for potential amendments to
further refine the timing or if storms head towards a terminal
outside of the TEMPO window. Behind the showers and
thunderstorms ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR and perhaps
Fuel Alternate this evening/overnight. These ceiling
restrictions may persist through Tuesday morning before
gradually improving Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon through Friday...Mainly VFR, though valley
fog is probable for late nights-early mornings at KELM.

Saturday...Restrictions possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BJG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
408 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

NYZ046-057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-222015-
Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-
Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
408 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 303 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

NYZ015>017-022-023-222015-
Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Steuben-Schuyler-
408 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 299 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

NYZ009-018-024-025-036-037-044-045-055-056-222015-
Northern Oneida-Onondaga-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-
Cortland-Chenango-Tioga-Broome-
408 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
410 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST HOMER              42.67N 76.10W
06/21/2021                   CORTLAND           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES DOWN ON SEVERAL
            ROADS. ONE ON A HOUSE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
413 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ITHACA                  42.44N 76.50W
06/21/2021                   TOMPKINS           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM
            ITHACA. MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON WIRES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
425 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW CAYUGA HEIGHTS    42.46N 76.50W
06/21/2021                   TOMPKINS           NY   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREES DOWN IN THE PARK.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
429 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     HAIL             HOMER                   42.64N 76.18W
06/21/2021  E1.00 INCH       CORTLAND           NY   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
437 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     LIGHTNING        2 S CLAYVILLE           42.95N 75.25W
06/21/2021                   ONEIDA             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            LIGHTNING HIT TREE AND BLEW OUT THE BOTTOM.
            TOP OF THE TREE IS ON FIRE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
438 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             DERUYTER                42.76N 75.89W
06/21/2021  M1.00 INCH       MADISON            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&