Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1050

June 21, 20216 counties in New York; 12 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 21, 2021, 3:47 PM EDT for 6 counties in New York; 12 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 58 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 21, 2021, 3:47 PM EDT (19:47 UTC)
Expired
Jun 21, 2021, 4:45 PM EDT
In force
58 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 299

Counties Allegany County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Yates County, NY, Allegheny County, PA, Armstrong County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Elk County, PA, Indiana County, PA, Jefferson County, PA, McKean County, PA, Potter County, PA, Washington County, PA, Westmoreland County, PA

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 108 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-06-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 9 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-06-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 257 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
9 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-284 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1192 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
257 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
304 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

651 
ACUS11 KWNS 211947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211947 
NYZ000-PAZ000-212045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1050
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Areas affected...southwest into north-central PA...western NY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 299...

Valid 211947Z - 212045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 299
continues.

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to locally severe gusts (50-70
mph) are possible with the more intense thunderstorms as several
linear segments/clusters move east towards the NY Finger Lakes
southward into west-central PA over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows several linear segments and
thunderstorm clusters moving east from the south shore of Lake
Ontario south-southwestward to the Pittsburgh, PA metro.  A moist
and moderately unstable airmass ahead of the approaching
thunderstorm activity will continue to support widely scattered
strong gusts with isolated occurrences of gusts 60-70 mph.  The
Pittsburgh, PA 88D VAD shows 40-kt westerly flow at 3 km ARL.  The
Ithaca, NY ASOS recently measured a 46-kt gust at 1932 UTC (with an
isolated storm to the east) and a NY Mesonet site in Wyoming County,
NY measured a 49 mph gust with the squall line.  Some of the
stronger downdrafts will be capable of channeling this higher
momentum to the surface in the form of strong to locally severe
gusts through the remainder of the afternoon, as the activity moves
east across western NY and western PA.

..Smith.. 06/21/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON   43347751 42107838 40158047 39847917 43367646 43347751

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 21, 11:59 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCattaraugus, Chautauqua91 min
Jun 21, 12:31 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClinton, Essex, Franklin, Fulton, Hamilton, Herkimer and 12 more89 min
Jun 21, 12:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 14 more7 hr
Jun 21, 1:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBroome, Chemung, Chenango, Clinton, Cortland, Essex and 14 more10 hr
Jun 21, 3:35 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClinton, Essex, Franklin, Fulton, Hamilton, Herkimer and 7 more85 min
Jun 21, 3:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlbany, Columbia, Delaware, Dutchess, Greene, Otsego and 5 more7 hr
Jun 21, 4:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCOrange6 hr
Jun 21, 6:50 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlbany, Broome, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland, Delaware and 23 more55 min
Jun 21, 1:51 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Bedford, Berks, Blair, Bradford, Bucks and 37 more114 min
Jun 21, 2:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Bedford, Blair, Centre, Clinton, Columbia and 19 more6 hr
Jun 21, 6:15 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBucks, Chester, Delaware, Lancaster, Montgomery, Philadelphia60 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.