Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302

June 21, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jun 21, 2021, 2:20 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 21, 2021, 2:20 PM EDT (18:20 UTC)
Expired
Jun 21, 2021, 8:18 PM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 77 counties

Allegany County, MD, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Garrett County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Washington County, MD, Adams County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Blair County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, York County, PA, Arlington County, VA, Augusta County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Greene County, VA, Highland County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Madison County, VA, Page County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Grant County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Morgan County, WV, Pendleton County, WV

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

29 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 21, 3:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXClarke, Frederick, Shenandoah, City of Winchester45 min
Jun 21, 3:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAllegany, Washington42 min
Jun 21, 3:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXPage, Shenandoah, Warren52 min
Jun 21, 3:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXWashington46 min
Jun 21, 4:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXClarke, Frederick, Shenandoah, Warren, City of Winchester39 min
Jun 21, 4:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXWashington51 min
Jun 21, 4:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFauquier, Page, Rappahannock, Warren27 min
Jun 21, 4:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCarroll, Frederick, Washington50 min
Jun 21, 4:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXMontgomery49 min
Jun 21, 4:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPAdams, Franklin59 min
Jun 21, 4:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCentre32 min
Jun 21, 4:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFauquier, Loudoun, Prince William32 min
Jun 21, 4:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLycoming, Sullivan, Tioga30 min
Jun 21, 4:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFrederick28 min
Jun 21, 5:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCarroll, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery43 min
Jun 21, 5:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPAdams, Cumberland, York40 min
Jun 21, 5:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCentre, Clinton, Lycoming37 min
Jun 21, 5:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCarroll, Frederick50 min
Jun 21, 5:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXFauquier, Loudoun, Prince William31 min
Jun 21, 5:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLycoming, Sullivan, Tioga44 min
Jun 21, 5:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPYork34 min
Jun 21, 5:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Howard, Montgomery, Prince George's and 1 more46 min
Jun 21, 5:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLancaster47 min
Jun 21, 6:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Cecil, Harford46 min
Jun 21, 6:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPSullivan15 min
Jun 21, 6:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, Howard, City of Baltimore47 min
Jun 21, 6:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Prince George's45 min
Jun 21, 6:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAllegany, Garrett29 min
Jun 21, 6:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCecil, Harford39 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 107 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-06-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 329 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-06-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 33 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
329 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-164 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
801 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
11 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
33 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
40 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

515 
WWUS20 KWNS 211818
SEL2  
SPC WW 211818
DCZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-CWZ000-220200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
220 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  District Of Columbia
  Western and Central Maryland
  Central Pennsylvania
  Northern Virginia
  Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until
  1000 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will move across the mountains
into the watch area this afternoon, with damaging winds and hail
possible in the strongest cells.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles east southeast
of Elkins WV to 25 miles northeast of Williamsport PA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 299...WW 300...WW 301...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 21, 1:51 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Cecil, Frederick and 8 more114 min
Jun 21, 4:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCaroline, Kent, Queen Anne's, Talbot6 hr
Jun 21, 6:15 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Caroline, Cecil, Harford, Howard and 5 more60 min
Jun 21, 11:59 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Crawford and 12 more91 min
Jun 21, 12:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Cambria, Cameron and 19 more7 hr
Jun 21, 3:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBradford, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Pike, Susquehanna, Wayne and 1 more7 hr
Jun 21, 3:47 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegheny, Armstrong, Cambria, Cameron, Clearfield, Elk and 6 more58 min
Jun 21, 6:50 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradford, Carbon, Columbia, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Monroe and 6 more55 min
Jun 21, 5:59 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCScott, City of Bristol91 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Virginia, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Maryland, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.