Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 214

May 27, 202148 counties in Illinois; 51 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 27, 2021, 11:26 AM CDT for 48 counties in Illinois; 51 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 27, 2021, 11:26 AM CDT (16:26 UTC)
Expired
May 27, 2021, 7:00 PM CDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 99 counties

Bond County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Cass County, IL, Champaign County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clark County, IL, Clay County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Coles County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Greene County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Menard County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Perry County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Richland County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Scott County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Washington County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Bollinger County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Madison County, MO, Maries County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Newton County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Osage County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Perry County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

39 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 27, 11:32 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXGreene, Macoupin43 min
May 27, 11:37 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFJasper, Newton38 min
May 27, 11:45 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFCedar, Dade, Dallas, Polk60 min
May 27, 11:50 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXCalhoun, Greene, Jersey, Macoupin, Madison, Saint Clair55 min
May 27, 11:58 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXMorgan, Sangamon62 min
May 27, 12:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXGreene, Macoupin, Montgomery38 min
May 27, 12:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFGreene, Webster53 min
May 27, 12:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFLaclede, Pulaski66 min
May 27, 12:26 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXMacoupin, Madison34 min
May 27, 12:45 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSGFBarry, Jasper, Lawrence, Newton6 hr
May 27, 12:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFWebster, Wright38 min
May 27, 12:56 PM CDTTornado WarningLSXBond, Macoupin, Madison, Montgomery28 min
May 27, 1:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXChristian, DeWitt, Logan, Macon, Sangamon, Shelby55 min
May 27, 1:07 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSGFCamden, Christian, Dallas, Greene, Laclede, Polk and 1 more5 hr
May 27, 1:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFMaries, Phelps41 min
May 27, 1:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXFranklin, Saint Louis51 min
May 27, 1:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFLaclede, Phelps, Pulaski, Texas, Wright56 min
May 27, 1:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXCrawford, Gasconade51 min
May 27, 1:29 PM CDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatSGFBarry, Lawrence, Newton6 hr
May 27, 1:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFJasper, McDonald, Newton59 min
May 27, 1:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXCrawford, Franklin, Washington39 min
May 27, 1:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFChristian, Douglas, Webster, Wright54 min
May 27, 2:11 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSGFBarry, Christian, Stone6 hr
May 27, 2:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFMcDonald, Newton47 min
May 27, 2:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXClinton, Fayette, Marion44 min
May 27, 2:37 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSGFDouglas6 hr
May 27, 2:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXMonroe, Randolph29 min
May 27, 2:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarry50 min
May 27, 3:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFHowell43 min
May 27, 3:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHWayne42 min
May 27, 3:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXClay, Effingham, Jasper54 min
May 27, 3:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXJasper, Richland58 min
May 27, 3:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFChristian, Douglas, Taney41 min
May 27, 4:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFOzark, Taney36 min
May 27, 4:14 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSGFBarry6 hr
May 27, 4:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAHFranklin, Hamilton, Jackson, Jefferson, Perry, Williamson44 min
May 27, 4:31 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSGFOzark, Stone, Taney6 hr
May 27, 5:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFMcDonald47 min
May 27, 5:52 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSGFMcDonald4 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 223 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2021-05-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 295 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2021-05-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 69 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
295 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-229 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
964 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
69 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
160 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

945 
WWUS20 KWNS 271623
SEL4  
SPC WW 271623
ILZ000-MOZ000-280000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 214
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Central and Southern Illinois
  Central and Southern Missouri

* Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1125 AM until
  700 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a line from southwest
Missouri into central Illinois.  These storms will move
east-southeastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of large
hail and damaging winds.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south of
Joplin MO to 35 miles east of Mattoon IL. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28030.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 27, 11:04 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Cleburne, Crawford and 15 more86 min
May 27, 11:29 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrawford61 min
May 27, 2:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Boone, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead and 23 more84 min
May 27, 4:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clark and 47 more83 min
May 27, 5:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArkansas, Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clark and 41 more8 hr
May 27, 5:21 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Craighead, Greene, Mississippi114 min
May 27, 12:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Christian, Clinton, Effingham, Fayette, Jersey and 12 more93 min
May 27, 2:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Bond, Clay, Clinton, Effingham, Fayette and 16 more85 min
May 27, 3:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Crawford, Edwards, Franklin, Hamilton, Jackson and 14 more67 min
May 27, 12:51 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Buchanan, Platte84 min
May 27, 1:05 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBates, Buchanan, Cass, Clay, Jackson, Platte and 1 more7 hr
May 27, 5:28 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCass, Jackson92 min
May 27, 1:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrew, Buchanan, Cass, Clay, Clinton, DeKalb and 2 more54 min
May 27, 6:03 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Audrain, Boone, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll and 27 more87 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Missouri, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Illinois, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.