Mesoscale Discussion 776

Issued

May 27, 2021, 6:03 PM CDT (23:03 UTC)

Expired

May 27, 2021, 7:30 PM CDT

In force

87 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

749 
ACUS11 KWNS 272303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272303 
MOZ000-KSZ000-280030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0776
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0603 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

Areas affected...parts of northeast Kansas into north-central
Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 272303Z - 280030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A large hail/damaging wind threat is expected to continue
across the area for a couple more hours, before storm intensity
decreases with the onset of stabilization. Given the expected short
duration of the severe threat, a WW issuance appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Organized semi-discrete storms have matured across
portions of northeast KS into north-central MO over the past couple
of hours ahead of the cold front. Some of these storms have
exhibited modest, transient rotation, with left-moving/anticyclonic
supercell structures observed per KEAX radar data. Some severe
weather has also occurred, including 1.5 inch hail in Clay County MO
and 65 kt estimated winds in Leavenworth County, KS, where MRMS
mosaic radar MESH data has also shown 1-2 inch diameter hail to be
possible well. 

Recent storm intensity may be attributed to a reservoir of 1000 J/kg
MUCAPE overlapping with up to 50 kts of effective bulk shear per
latest mesoanalysis. However, widespread clouds, light to moderate
rainfall, and associated cooler temperatures are also spreading
across the area originating from the trailing precipitation region
of a mature MCS passing to the south. The MCS related impacts, and
overturning airmass from the present strong to severe storms are
expected to limit the duration of the severe threat however,
precluding a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 05/27/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   38329588 39289511 40029465 40459371 40369249 39919148
            39449131 38979194 38249489 38329588

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.