Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 761
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 27, 2021, 2:17 AM CDT for 13 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 58 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 27, 2021, 2:17 AM CDT (07:17 UTC)
- Expired
- May 27, 2021, 3:15 AM CDT
- In force
- 58 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 213
Counties Atchison County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Republic County, KS, Riley County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS
The radar
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 118 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 328 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -63 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2025 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 39 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 24 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 76 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
398
ACUS11 KWNS 270717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270717
KSZ000-NEZ000-270815-
Mesoscale Discussion 0761
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021
Areas affected...Northeast KS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 213...
Valid 270717Z - 270815Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 213
continues.
SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts appear likely across northeast KS over
the next two hours.
DISCUSSION...Convective evolution over the past half hour suggests
the cluster across north-central KS has transitioned to an
organized, forward-propagating convective line. Storm motion within
the northern portion of this line (now entering Washington and Clay
counties) has increased to around 40 kt. A 56 kt gust was measured
at Concordia KS as this portion of the line moved through. Air mass
due east of this line is currently modestly unstable, but a corridor
of upper 60s dewpoints continues to advect northward. Dewpoint at
TOP and LWC recently increased to 68 and 70 deg F, respectively.
This increasing low-level moisture will likely only result in a
minimum increase in overall buoyancy, but should result in a
lessening of the convective inhibition. These thermodynamic
conditions, coupled with moderate westerly flow aloft and the
persist strong, moist inflow, are expected to support storm
maintenance. Organized character of the line suggests the threat for
strong wind gusts will continue. Some hail may also occur,
particularly if any storm mergers occur.
..Mosier.. 05/27/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39979760 40009643 39719519 38809573 38909725 39419791
39979760SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 7:32 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Comanche, Kiowa | 88 min |
| May 26, 9:04 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Decatur, Jewell, Lincoln, Mitchell and 8 more | 116 min |
| May 26, 11:26 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Chautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Harper, Montgomery and 2 more | 64 min |
| May 27, 12:51 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Butler, Chase and 39 more | 84 min |
| May 27, 1:05 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Chase and 32 more | 7 hr |
| May 27, 5:28 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Douglas, Franklin, Jefferson, Johnson, Leavenworth and 7 more | 92 min |
| May 27, 11:04 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Montgomery | 86 min |
| May 27, 1:36 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Atchison, Butler, Chase, Coffey, Douglas and 18 more | 54 min |
| May 27, 6:03 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Douglas, Franklin, Johnson, Leavenworth, Miami, Wyandotte | 87 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.