Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 761

May 27, 202113 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 27, 2021, 2:17 AM CDT for 13 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 58 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 27, 2021, 2:17 AM CDT (07:17 UTC)
Expired
May 27, 2021, 3:15 AM CDT
In force
58 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 213

Counties Atchison County, KS, Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Republic County, KS, Riley County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 118 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2021-05-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 328 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2021-05-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 24 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
328 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-63 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2025 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
76 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

398 
ACUS11 KWNS 270717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270717 
KSZ000-NEZ000-270815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0761
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

Areas affected...Northeast KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 213...

Valid 270717Z - 270815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 213
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts appear likely across northeast KS over
the next two hours.

DISCUSSION...Convective evolution over the past half hour suggests
the cluster across north-central KS has transitioned to an
organized, forward-propagating convective line. Storm motion within
the northern portion of this line (now entering Washington and Clay
counties) has increased to around 40 kt. A 56 kt gust was measured
at Concordia KS as this portion of the line moved through. Air mass
due east of this line is currently modestly unstable, but a corridor
of upper 60s dewpoints continues to advect northward. Dewpoint at
TOP and LWC recently increased to 68 and 70 deg F, respectively.
This increasing low-level moisture will likely only result in a
minimum increase in overall buoyancy, but should result in a
lessening of the convective inhibition. These thermodynamic
conditions, coupled with moderate westerly flow aloft and the
persist strong, moist inflow, are expected to support storm
maintenance. Organized character of the line suggests the threat for
strong wind gusts will continue. Some hail may also occur,
particularly if any storm mergers occur.

..Mosier.. 05/27/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39979760 40009643 39719519 38809573 38909725 39419791
            39979760

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 26, 7:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Comanche, Kiowa88 min
May 26, 9:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Cloud, Decatur, Jewell, Lincoln, Mitchell and 8 more116 min
May 26, 11:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Chautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Harper, Montgomery and 2 more64 min
May 27, 12:51 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Butler, Chase and 39 more84 min
May 27, 1:05 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Chase and 32 more7 hr
May 27, 5:28 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Douglas, Franklin, Jefferson, Johnson, Leavenworth and 7 more92 min
May 27, 11:04 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherokee, Crawford, Labette, Montgomery86 min
May 27, 1:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Atchison, Butler, Chase, Coffey, Douglas and 18 more54 min
May 27, 6:03 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDouglas, Franklin, Johnson, Leavenworth, Miami, Wyandotte87 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.