Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 766
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 27, 2021, 1:36 PM CDT for 24 counties in Kansas; 8 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 54 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 27, 2021, 1:36 PM CDT (18:36 UTC)
- Expired
- May 27, 2021, 2:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 54 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 32 counties
Anderson County, KS, Atchison County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marion County, KS, Miami County, KS, Morris County, KS, Osage County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Cass County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Platte County, MO
The radar
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 8 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -459 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1511 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 53 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 343 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
708
ACUS11 KWNS 271836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271836
MOZ000-KSZ000-271930-
Mesoscale Discussion 0766
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021
Areas affected...portions of northwestern Missouri and eastern
Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 271836Z - 271930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms developing along the advancing cold front may pose
local risk for gusty winds and hail. However, risk may remain
isolated/limited, and thus need for a WW remains uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite loop shows an increase in cumulus
growth along the slowly advancing cold front, in the wake of earlier
convection/cloud cover where some heating/destabilization is
occurring. While CAPE remains somewhat modest across this area --
generally around 1000 J/kg, additional heating may allow enough
instability to occur, to support a few stronger storms near the
advancing boundary.
Area VWPs indicate moderately strong mid-level west-southwesterlies
-- sufficient to aid in updraft organization/rotation. As such,
with some additional destabilization, limited/local severe risk may
evolve, but at this time we are expecting that coverage of stronger
storms may remain limited.
..Goss/Hart.. 05/27/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 40169471 39909418 38709411 37609585 37029813 38079791
39119609 39689522 40169471SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 7:32 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Comanche, Kiowa | 88 min |
| May 26, 9:04 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Decatur, Jewell, Lincoln, Mitchell and 8 more | 116 min |
| May 26, 11:26 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Chautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Harper, Montgomery and 2 more | 64 min |
| May 27, 12:51 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Butler, Chase and 39 more | 84 min |
| May 27, 1:05 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Chase and 32 more | 7 hr |
| May 27, 2:17 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Clay, Cloud, Geary, Jackson, Marshall and 7 more | 58 min |
| May 27, 5:28 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Douglas, Franklin, Jefferson, Johnson, Leavenworth and 7 more | 92 min |
| May 27, 11:04 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Montgomery | 86 min |
| May 27, 6:03 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Douglas, Franklin, Johnson, Leavenworth, Miami, Wyandotte | 87 min |
| May 27, 11:26 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barry, Barton, Bollinger, Camden, Cape Girardeau, Carter and 45 more | 8 hr |
| May 27, 12:57 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Christian, Crawford, Dallas, Dent, Franklin and 14 more | 93 min |
| May 27, 2:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Dunklin, Oregon, Ripley | 84 min |
| May 27, 2:20 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Christian and 27 more | 85 min |
| May 27, 3:38 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Madison, Oregon, Perry and 3 more | 67 min |
| May 27, 5:21 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Dunklin, Mississippi, New Madrid, Pemiscot, Scott and 1 more | 114 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.