Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 922
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 11, 2021, 10:28 AM CDT for 7 counties in Kansas; Atchison County, Holt County, Missouri; 6 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 11, 2021, 10:28 AM CDT (15:28 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 11, 2021, 12:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 258
Counties Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Atchison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Gage County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Nemaha County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Richardson County, NE
The radar
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 3.5 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2135 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -160 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1019 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 72 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -1.2
The text
As transmitted.
927 ACUS11 KWNS 111529 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111528 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-111730- Mesoscale Discussion 0922 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021 Areas affected...far southeast NE...far northeast KS...far northwest MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258... Valid 111528Z - 111730Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for severe gusts may gradually increase through 12pm and focus mainly across parts of far southeast NE into northeast KS. A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely need to be issued during the midday hours for eastern KS and possibly the western tier or two of counties in MO. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic at 1020am shows a southward surge to the MCS over the lower MO Valley, with it expected to push south of a flanking band of storms on the southwest edge of the complex during the next 30-60 minutes. Once this occurs, expecting the limiting effects of the flanking band to cease (i.e., competing cold pool development) and the potential for more storm-scale organization to proceed as it moves south into the moisture/CAPE axis. Surface temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s as of 10am with dewpoints in the mid 70s. Additional heating south of the thunderstorms will contribute to additional buoyancy with the 00z HRW-ARW/NSSL forecast soundings showing 4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE by noon. It appears the 00z model runs of the HRW-ARW and the HRW-NSSL may be best depicting the placement and speed of the MCS compared to other 00z and 12z HREF membership and the latest HRRR runs. The MCS is forecast to reach the southern edge of the northeastern-most counties of KS by 1200-1230pm. A coinciding uptick in severe potential will accompany the squall line. Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts 60-70 mph are possible. ..Smith.. 06/11/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39369720 40489683 40759566 40259509 39379507 39369720
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 11, 8:30 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Clay, Doniphan, Jackson, Marshall and 4 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 11, 12:32 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Butler, Chase, Coffey, Dickinson and 17 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 11, 1:55 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Douglas, Franklin, Jefferson, Johnson, Leavenworth, Miami and 3 more | 95 min |
| Jun 11, 2:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Butler, Chase and 31 more | 113 min |
| Jun 11, 3:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Franklin, Johnson, Linn, Miami | 92 min |
| Jun 11, 3:54 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford | 6 hr |
| Jun 11, 5:39 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Cherokee, Coffey, Crawford and 13 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 11, 6:18 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley, Elk, Greenwood and 10 more | 117 min |
| Jun 11, 6:46 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allen, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Cowley, Elk and 10 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 10, 8:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arthur, Banner, Blaine, Box Butte, Brown, Cherry and 12 more | 92 min |
| Jun 10, 9:08 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Arthur, Banner, Blaine, Box Butte, Brown, Cherry and 12 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 10, 11:07 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Box Butte, Dawes, Sheridan, Sioux | 83 min |
| Jun 11, 12:52 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Antelope, Boyd, Cedar, Holt, Keya Paha, Knox and 4 more | 53 min |
| Jun 11, 2:15 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Dakota, Dixon | 5 hr |
| Jun 11, 5:36 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Antelope, Boone, Burt, Butler, Cedar, Colfax and 22 more | 5 hr |
| Jun 11, 7:28 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Burt, Butler, Cass, Colfax, Cuming and 18 more | 92 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.