Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 915

June 10, 20214 counties in Nebraska; 6 counties in North Dakota; 14 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 10, 2021, 10:07 PM MDT for 4 counties in Nebraska; 6 counties in North Dakota; 14 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 83 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 10, 2021, 10:07 PM MDT (04:07 UTC)
Expired
Jun 10, 2021, 11:30 PM MDT
In force
83 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 253...254
All 24 counties

Adams County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Box Butte County, NE, Dawes County, NE, Sheridan County, NE, Sioux County, NE, Bennett County, SD, Butte County, SD, Corson County, SD, Custer County, SD, Dewey County, SD, Fall River County, SD, Haakon County, SD, Harding County, SD, Jackson County, SD, Meade County, SD, Oglala Lakota County, SD, Pennington County, SD, Perkins County, SD, Ziebach County, SD

The radar

The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KUNR), launched 00:00Z, 4.1 hours before the alert went out and 67 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Rapid City, SD at 00:00Z on 2021-06-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1559 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Rapid City, SD at 00:00Z on 2021-06-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 88 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1559 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-71 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2700 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
88 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
177 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
15.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

489 
ACUS11 KWNS 110408
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110407 COR
SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-110530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0915
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

Areas affected...Northwest NE...Western SD...Southwest ND

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253...254...

Valid 110407Z - 110530Z

CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC HEADLINE

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253, 254
continues.

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorm clusters will increase the
damaging wind threat through 06Z, with some hail also possible.

DISCUSSION...Storm coverage has increased substantially across
western SD and northwest NE over the last hour, with a few reports
of severe hail and wind already noted across western SD. A
well-defined outflow has emerged across northwest SD, with
additional development noted along its leading flank. Steep midlevel
lapse rates and strong MUCAPE (2500-3500 J/kg) will favor intense
updrafts, even with convection that is slightly elevated behind the
outflow. Additional southward development may occur as the low-level
jet continues to increase and an accelerating cold front moves into
the region. 

Increasing midlevel flow and effective shear with time will support
organized convection, and steep lapse rates through a deep layer
just above a nocturnal inversion will favor outflow production and
an increasing threat of more widespread severe wind with time.
Embedded supercell structures capable of hail will also be possible
for at least another 2-3 hours, before convective mode becomes
increasingly linear with time.

..Dean.. 06/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON   44240082 43590098 42330186 42020342 42160402 42790391
            43850363 45050349 45930393 46560419 46840332 46820224
            46410133 45850084 44940076 44240082

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 10, 7:28 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArthur, Banner, Blaine, Box Butte, Brown, Cherry and 12 more92 min
Jun 10, 8:08 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArthur, Banner, Blaine, Box Butte, Brown, Cherry and 12 more6 hr
Jun 10, 11:52 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAntelope, Boyd, Cedar, Holt, Keya Paha, Knox and 4 more53 min
Jun 11, 1:15 AM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCDakota, Dixon5 hr
Jun 11, 4:36 AM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAntelope, Boone, Burt, Butler, Cedar, Colfax and 22 more5 hr
Jun 11, 6:28 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Burt, Butler, Cass, Colfax, Cuming and 18 more92 min
Jun 11, 7:30 AM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCass, Gage, Jefferson, Johnson, Nemaha, Otoe and 2 more7 hr
Jun 11, 9:28 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGage, Johnson, Nemaha, Otoe, Pawnee, Richardson2 hr
Jun 10, 7:30 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBillings, Burke, Divide, Golden Valley, McKenzie, Mountrail and 1 more2 hr
Jun 10, 8:54 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Billings, Bottineau, Bowman, Burke, Burleigh and 24 more5 hr
Jun 10, 10:21 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBottineau, Burke, Divide, McHenry, McKenzie, Mountrail and 3 more114 min
Jun 11, 12:58 AM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarnes, Benson, Cass, Cavalier, Dickey, Eddy and 17 more5 hr
Jun 11, 3:37 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarnes, Cass, Cavalier, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson and 8 more83 min
Jun 10, 10:50 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDewey, Haakon, Jackson, Jones, Meade, Mellette and 5 more85 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.