Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 916
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 10, 2021, 11:21 PM CDT for 9 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 114 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 10, 2021, 11:21 PM CDT (04:21 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 11, 2021, 1:15 AM CDT
- In force
- 114 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 254
Counties Bottineau County, ND, Burke County, ND, Divide County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Renville County, ND, Ward County, ND, Williams County, ND
The radar
The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 125 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 213 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1785 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -24 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2484 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 75 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 210 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 4.8
The text
As transmitted.
074
ACUS11 KWNS 110421
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110421
NDZ000-MTZ000-110615-
Mesoscale Discussion 0916
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021
Areas affected...Northwest North Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254...
Valid 110421Z - 110615Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe wind, including significant wind gusts, will remain
likely as a strong line of storms moves across northwest North
Dakota over the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms moving across western ND has a history
of producing severe hail and measured winds over 60 mph with a few
reports of 70-90 mph gusts. Radar imagery from KGGW and KMBX shows a
well organized squall line that is showing signs of a bowing segment
and accompanying rear inflow jet on the northern edge. This line
will continue to propagate to the north/northeast across northwest
ND on the edge of the instability gradient over the next 1-2 hours.
50-70 knot effective bulk shear will help maintain storm
organization, and increasing low-level flow (60-70 knots observed in
the lowest 1-2 km layer per KBMX VWP observations) in the vicinity
of the advancing surface low suggest a high probability of severe,
and possibly significant severe, wind gusts as the lines progresses
towards the international border.
..Moore.. 06/11/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...
LAT...LON 48040440 48620441 49080413 49070086 49060019 48780008
48290041 47830147 47380265 47200343 47340394 48040440SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 8:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Billings, Burke, Divide, Golden Valley, McKenzie, Mountrail and 1 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 10, 9:54 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Billings, Bottineau, Bowman, Burke, Burleigh and 24 more | 5 hr |
| Jun 10, 11:07 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Bowman, Grant, Hettinger, Slope, Stark | 83 min |
| Jun 11, 12:52 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barnes, Benson, Cass, Cavalier, Dickey, Eddy and 17 more | 53 min |
| Jun 11, 1:58 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barnes, Benson, Cass, Cavalier, Dickey, Eddy and 17 more | 5 hr |
| Jun 11, 4:37 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barnes, Cass, Cavalier, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson and 8 more | 83 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.