Mesoscale Discussion 928

Issued

Jun 11, 2021, 5:39 PM CDT (22:39 UTC)

Expired

Jun 11, 2021, 7:45 PM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 259...260

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261Jun 11, 6:45 PM CDT

252 
ACUS11 KWNS 112239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112239 
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-120045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0928
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0539 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259...260...

Valid 112239Z - 120045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259, 260
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe wind threat will likely continue for southeast
Kansas and into far southwest Missouri over the next few hours. The
severe threat is more conditional across south-central Kansas and
over west-central Missouri.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KEAX over the past hour has shown an
initially organized line of storms become increasingly broken and
outflow dominant, likely the result of weakening deep-layer shear
with southeastward extent. The cluster of storms across west-central
MO are being largely outpaced by their outflow. This introduces some
uncertainty into the severe potential in the near term for portions
of southwest MO. Additional, more balanced, convective development
along parts of the outflow is possible over the next couple of hours
and may continue to support a severe wind threat. 

Further west into KS, a cluster of storms over the Franklin/Anderson
counties area has maintained a balanced outflow and continues to
produce severe wind. New convective elements are noted on the
western fringe of this cluster, likely due to lift along the western
extent of an outflow boundary. This suggests that the environment
across southeast KS remains sufficiently uncapped (at least locally)
to support mature convection. New updrafts originating on the
southwestern flank of this cluster will quickly amalgamate within
the line and propagate to the south/southeast within the mean flow
regime (and along a diffuse low-level instability axis). As such,
the wind threat should continue for southeast KS. 

To the west over south-central KS, agitated cumulus is noted along
the surface trough/cold front, but no serious attempts at convective
initiation have occurred. While the environment remains
conditionally favorable for a severe threat, the potential for
mature convection remains uncertain.

..Moore.. 06/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38399656 38789630 38959530 38979459 38709324 37979282
            37219310 36999360 36959427 36999540 37209590 37729647
            38399656

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.