Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 827
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 31, 2021, 2:29 PM MDT for 5 counties in New Mexico; 27 counties in Texas. It was in force for 91 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 31, 2021, 2:29 PM MDT (20:29 UTC)
- Expired
- May 31, 2021, 4:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 91 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 229
All 32 counties
Chaves County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Socorro County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Coke County, TX, Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Irion County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 189 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 187 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1949 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 516 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 40 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 149 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 119 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.2
- Supercell composite
- 7.1
The text
As transmitted.
557
ACUS11 KWNS 312030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312029
TXZ000-NMZ000-312200-
Mesoscale Discussion 0827
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021
Areas affected...southeast New Mexico and west Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229...
Valid 312029Z - 312200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229
continues.
SUMMARY...Clusters of severe thunderstorms will persist into the
evening. Very large hail is the primary threat. However, a couple of
tornadoes will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop this afternoon across
the region within a sheared, unstable, and weakly-capped
environment. The strongest thunderstorm appear to be across Pecos
County, TX, with additional intense clusters across Reeves and
Loving Counties, TX. Very large hail will be possible in both areas
in the near term. With time, a southward surging outflow boundary,
currently across Reagan, Upton, and Crane Counties, will interact
with both supercell clusters. This interaction may result in an
uptick in tornado potential.
Elsewhere, the severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch #229 with large hail the primary threat in the short term.
..Marsh.. 05/31/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 30620492 32000491 32000484 32510485 32510536 32980535
33290532 33300572 33380573 33380638 33470637 33470771
34560772 34580690 34430643 34280641 34260531 34350530
34340489 34100488 34090479 34010478 34000416 34070415
34080383 33840383 33810370 33650372 33660350 33590351
33560305 32970305 32950221 32530219 32520014 32090015
32080023 31590023 31590011 30300011 30280174 29780176
29780210 29870233 30660344 30420378 30400389 30620492SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 8:22 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Lea | 83 min |
| May 31, 8:18 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Lincoln, Roosevelt | 57 min |
| May 31, 10:33 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, De Baca, Eddy, Lea, Lincoln, Roosevelt and 1 more | 87 min |
| May 31, 11:16 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Chaves, Eddy, Lea, Lincoln, Socorro | 9 hr |
| May 31, 12:47 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bernalillo, Cibola, Los Alamos, McKinley, Rio Arriba, Sandoval and 3 more | 88 min |
| May 31, 5:17 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Otero | 88 min |
| May 30, 7:59 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carson, Gray, Hansford, Hemphill, Hutchinson, Lipscomb and 6 more | 91 min |
| May 30, 8:17 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Armstrong, Carson, Collingsworth, Donley, Gray, Hemphill and 4 more | 5 hr |
| May 30, 10:43 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bailey, Cochran, Cottle, Crosby, Dickens, Floyd and 12 more | 92 min |
| May 31, 1:12 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Borden, Fisher, Haskell, Howard, Jones, Kent and 5 more | 3 hr |
| May 31, 1:15 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche, Coryell and 10 more | 2 hr |
| May 31, 1:54 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Comanche, Coryell, Ellis, Erath and 13 more | 4 hr |
| May 31, 4:12 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Coryell, Ellis, Falls, Freestone and 10 more | 93 min |
| May 31, 4:49 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brewster, Pecos, Terrell | 116 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.