Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 825

May 31, 202114 counties in Colorado; 9 counties in New Mexico

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 31, 2021, 12:47 PM MDT for 14 counties in Colorado; 9 counties in New Mexico. It was in force for 88 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 31, 2021, 12:47 PM MDT (18:47 UTC)
Expired: May 31, 2021, 2:15 PM MDT
In force: 88 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch: 5%

All 23 counties

Alamosa County, CO, Archuleta County, CO, Chaffee County, CO, Conejos County, CO, Costilla County, CO, Custer County, CO, Gunnison County, CO, Hinsdale County, CO, La Plata County, CO, Mineral County, CO, Ouray County, CO, Rio Grande County, CO, Saguache County, CO, San Juan County, CO, Bernalillo County, NM, Cibola County, NM, Los Alamos County, NM, McKinley County, NM, Rio Arriba County, NM, San Juan County, NM, Sandoval County, NM, Santa Fe County, NM, Taos County, NM

The radar

The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 157 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 166 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 900 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -149 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1226 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 263 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 268 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

106 
ACUS11 KWNS 311848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311847 
COZ000-NMZ000-312015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0825
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

Areas affected...mountain areas of northern New Mexico and southern
Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 311847Z - 312015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop through the
afternoon. Marginally severe hail and gusty thunderstorm outflows
will be possible. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Several days of convection across the area have left a
very moist airmass in place. This, coupled with strong diurnal
heating has, and continue, to support the development of
thunderstorms along the higher terrain. Most-unstable CAPE values
range from around 1000 J/kg in central Colorado to nearly 2000 J/kg
in central New Mexico. However, this region is removed from the
better flow aloft yielding effective-layer shear values generally
less than 30 knots, which will limit overall thunderstorm
organization. Still, given the degree of instability marginally
severe hail and gusty thunderstorm winds will be possible with the
strongest thunderstorms.

A watch is not expected given the highly localized nature of any
severe potential.

..Marsh/Hart.. 05/31/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...

LAT...LON   34720676 34760782 35400853 37850839 38720790 39000690
            38740567 37770516 37030498 36170511 35380550 34850623
            34720676

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 30, 8:22 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Lea	83 min
May 31, 8:18 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Lincoln, Roosevelt	57 min
May 31, 10:33 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chaves, De Baca, Eddy, Lea, Lincoln, Roosevelt and 1 more	87 min
May 31, 11:16 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Chaves, Eddy, Lea, Lincoln, Socorro	9 hr
May 31, 2:29 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chaves, Eddy, Lea, Lincoln, Socorro	91 min
May 31, 5:17 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Otero	88 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.