Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 830
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 31, 2021, 5:17 PM MDT for Otero County, New Mexico. It was in force for 88 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 31, 2021, 5:17 PM MDT (23:17 UTC)
- Expired
- May 31, 2021, 6:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 88 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 229
County Otero County, NM
The radar
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 127 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 157 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 125 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -252 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2730 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -57 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 10 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
565 ACUS11 KWNS 312317 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312317 NMZ000-TXZ000-010045- Mesoscale Discussion 0830 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021 Areas affected...Parts of southeastern New Mexico and adjacent southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229... Valid 312317Z - 010045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229 continues. SUMMARY...Further intensification of an evolving isolated supercell still appears possible into the 6-8 PM MDT time frame, with a tendency to move southeastward and remain close to the Guadalupe Mountains. DISCUSSION...Much of the Permian Basin has been stabilized by persistent convection and the southwestward advancement of conglomerate outflow into the higher terrain. Any continuing potential for severe storm development now seems confined to the immediate vicinity of the Guadalupe Mountains, where the boundary-layer remains characterized by CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg, in the presence of generally weak, but strongly sheared west-southwesterly ambient mean flow. Isolated thunderstorm development is ongoing to the south of Alamogordo, NM, and further intensification into a better organized supercell still appears possible, with a tendency to propagate southeastward near the higher terrain through 00-02Z. ..Kerr.. 05/31/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 33080513 31970452 31490438 31670557 32550596 33080513
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 8:22 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Lea | 83 min |
| May 31, 8:18 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Lincoln, Roosevelt | 57 min |
| May 31, 10:33 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, De Baca, Eddy, Lea, Lincoln, Roosevelt and 1 more | 87 min |
| May 31, 11:16 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Chaves, Eddy, Lea, Lincoln, Socorro | 9 hr |
| May 31, 12:47 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bernalillo, Cibola, Los Alamos, McKinley, Rio Arriba, Sandoval and 3 more | 88 min |
| May 31, 2:29 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, Eddy, Lea, Lincoln, Socorro | 91 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.