Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 823
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 31, 2021, 10:33 AM MDT for 7 counties in New Mexico; 32 counties in Texas. It was in force for 87 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 31, 2021, 10:33 AM MDT (16:33 UTC)
- Expired
- May 31, 2021, 12:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 87 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch likely
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 39 counties
Chaves County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Torrance County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Brewster County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Garza County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Howard County, TX, Irion County, TX, Loving County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Terry County, TX, Upton County, TX, Val Verde County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX, Yoakum County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 135 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 4.6 hours before the alert went out and 134 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1949 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 516 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 40 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 149 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 119 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.2
- Supercell composite
- 7.1
The text
As transmitted.
421
ACUS11 KWNS 311634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311633
TXZ000-NMZ000-311800-
Mesoscale Discussion 0823
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021
Areas affected...southeast New Mexico and west Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 311633Z - 311800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop across
the region this afternoon. Large hail and gusty thunderstorm winds
will be the primary threat, however a couple of tornadoes cannot be
ruled out. A watch will be needed in the near term.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection across east-central New Mexico this
morning continued to reinforce a westward moving convective outflow
boundary draped across southeast New Mexico. This boundary will
continue to move west this afternoon and is expected to serve as a
focus for thunderstorms. Ahead of the outflow boundary, clear skies
have allowed surface temperatures to warm into the upper 70s F and
will continue to warm into the 80s F. This, coupled with surface
dewpoints in the 50s F and steep mid-level-lapse rates approaching 8
C/km, will allow surface-based CAPE to exceed 2000-3000 J/km.
Effective-layer shear on the order of 40-50 knots will support the
potential for supercells capable of producing large hail and gusty
thunderstorm outflows this afternoon. Although low-level flow is
relatively weak, the degree of instability and favorable veering
wind profile may support a couple tornadoes, especially across west
Texas where discrete cellular mode may persist longer.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across southeast New Mexico
and west Texas this afternoon with initial development across
southeast New Mexico in the next hour or so and more widespread
convection developing in the 1-2 PM MDT time frame.
A watch will likely be required in the near term.
..Marsh/Hart.. 05/31/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 29000357 30620416 31930518 33040591 33660650 34360677
34770634 34770538 34040303 33670161 33100101 31030064
29280102 29620147 29650223 28960288 29000357SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 8:22 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Lea | 83 min |
| May 31, 8:18 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, Curry, De Baca, Lincoln, Roosevelt | 57 min |
| May 31, 11:16 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Chaves, Eddy, Lea, Lincoln, Socorro | 9 hr |
| May 31, 12:47 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bernalillo, Cibola, Los Alamos, McKinley, Rio Arriba, Sandoval and 3 more | 88 min |
| May 31, 2:29 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, Eddy, Lea, Lincoln, Socorro | 91 min |
| May 31, 5:17 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Otero | 88 min |
| May 30, 7:59 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carson, Gray, Hansford, Hemphill, Hutchinson, Lipscomb and 6 more | 91 min |
| May 30, 8:17 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Armstrong, Carson, Collingsworth, Donley, Gray, Hemphill and 4 more | 5 hr |
| May 30, 10:43 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bailey, Cochran, Cottle, Crosby, Dickens, Floyd and 12 more | 92 min |
| May 31, 1:12 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Borden, Fisher, Haskell, Howard, Jones, Kent and 5 more | 3 hr |
| May 31, 1:15 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche, Coryell and 10 more | 2 hr |
| May 31, 1:54 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Comanche, Coryell, Ellis, Erath and 13 more | 4 hr |
| May 31, 4:12 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Coryell, Ellis, Falls, Freestone and 10 more | 93 min |
| May 31, 4:49 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brewster, Pecos, Terrell | 116 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.